November 7, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
12*-13  ?
36%
33%
15%
9%
2%
1%
1%
Total votes: 184
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:20 AM
Having written enough to fill an entire VOLUME about the ubiquitous Toss (6 7) Discard onto *either side* of the board, let me at least attempt to keep this brief. (The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry...)

In the section "Discarding to Your Own Crib" under the heading of "Star Power," RAS has given Toss (6 9) the sad but fitting moniker of being lumped in an "Also Ran" discard. That's right: Toss (6 9) doesn't even warrant One Star! So, as a solution to today's challenging puzzle, why might we place an "Everything Else" discard into our Own Crib?

Okay, so you might have experimented with trying something akin to Toss (6 7) once or twice, and after having failed, naturally you reverted back to your old, Toss (6 9) ways. Shame on you! What happened, in my opinion (and experience), is that: you didn't try it LONG ENOUGH!

Toss (6 7) begins with NOTHING and results in a Crib Average that not only regularly beats the 'likes' of Toss (Q Q) and Toss (K K), but goes on to exceed Toss (T T) and sometimes even Toss (9 9)! Also, Toss (6 7) allows for both our Maximum Hand (Ten Points) and our Maximum Crib (Twenty-Four Points) today, and who doesn't like that?!

Therefore, I shall Toss (6 7) confidently today. Had we been further down the board and/or somehow stuck in "Savage Beast Mode" today, perhaps we could have also examined Toss (J J), or even that 'long-lost cousin' of both Toss (3 4) and Toss (6 7), otherwise known as Toss (J Q).

But Toss (6 7) here seems to make a *much more logical* 'split' among the six cards that we were dealt. It's too early in the game (and in the morning) for me to try to become uber-creative, beyond of course ignoring the pitfalls that often accompany Toss (6 9), I think.

We cannot leave this intriguing Discarding Decision without once again bringing up and addressing that controversial topic of a Jack or Jacks that may or may not end up in the Crib (especially the Dealer's Crib) and that Dastardly Daemon: Intrinsic Points! Every potential Jack that might find itself on a Discard Table (especially those that are computer-generated) almost invariably ends up getting inflated by approximately 0.25 points due to Nobs, which of course we shall SCORE ANYWAY regardless of whether said Jack ends up in our Crib or not. We have discussed this issue on numerous occasions on this site, and a very good example of this occurred in May 2014, so I would recommend that players especially take note of Coeurdelion's response to my entry on the topic on that day. REF: https://www.dailycribbagehand.org/show.php?date=2014-05-03

For these reasons, back in 2012, the Cribbage Pro Blog actually created and posted an entire article (along with a color-coded, Red State/Blue State chart!) showing how these "Intrinsic Points" can potentially inflate the Discard Tables. This phenomenon especially affects any potential discard(s) that contain points, such as PAIRS and (15-2s), as well as Jacks. For those who end up memorizing and/or using Discard Tables and who may therefore Toss (J J) today, I think that it's well worth your time to both read and try to fully understanding this issue. REF: http://blog.cribbagepro.net/2012/10/discarding.html

After the perhaps-somewhat-helpful and yet-to-be-determined 7d Cut, I'll prepare to peg cautiously (which, given my hand, simply means that I'll at least look at my cards before I plunk them down). Many apologies as in so much for any attempt to keep this brief!
JCM says: Re: "The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.." The actual quote is from Ode to a Mouse by Robbie Burns, where he is feeling badly for accidentally destroying a mouse's nest(which it needed to survive the Scottish winter) - with his plough. The actual quote is “The best laid schemes o' mice an' men Gang aft a-gley.” But hardly anyone will understand that Scottish turn of phrase, so it often is modernized to "The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.." My bit of poetic history trivia for today.....
JCM says: Just for interest, here's the entire original poem(almost incomprehensible!), side-by-side with a more modern adaptation: -- https://www.rcsdk12.org/cms/lib/NY01001156/Centricity/Domain/3732/to-a-mouse-translation.pdf
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Really appreciate your analysis and insight. You must know that I am one of those who keeps repeating " the 3-4 and 6-7 are dead on one end cause nobody wants to dump a five!" Having said that repeatedly over the years. my empirical data does have the 6-7 at 5.14 (2,382) 26/91 and 6-9 average of 5.114 (2,590) 28/91. Just that slight difference does put the 6-7 with a one-star rating and the 6-9 misses the boat. Am surprised that more have not chosen the J-J discard though.
Ras2829 says: What about the J-Q discard for some of the same reasons offered for retaining 6-7?
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:31 AM
Best case scenario, get a ten cut they also have a fractured face card hand you can peg against and to them a useless 8-? gets discarded to the crib. Looks like after cut both may not even make it deep onto to first street. Should put conservative or just plain ugly to this deal? dec
mrob2199
1429 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 4:43 AM
Pretty cut and dried hold today-lousy hand so keep the 2 in the hand and 2 in the crib and hope the cut hits one of them-see no value here in only keeping 2 to throw 6-7 in the crib-that discard looks a lot better than it usually counts,as pone is very unlikely to help you with the discard of a 5,so while it’s technically open ended for all intents and purposes it really isn’t.obviously pone could throw an 8 in,but it’s a 60 percent chance he throws a 6 or 9 instead,giving me a guaranteed 6 in the crib before the cut
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 4:53 AM
Preferred to hold 2 points in the hand and 2 points in the crib. As Rob says pone is unlikely to toss us a 5 so the 6-7 is not really open ended. Incidentally Ras has 6-9 valued at 5.11 points vs. 6-7 at 5.14 points.
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Thursday 5:02 AM
Having used this site for a little while now, I'm familiar with the comments from John, and from Aaron Harsch on CribbagePro blog, with regards the 6-7 discard and the concept of "intrinsic value".

222,5555,666,777,8888,9999 = 22/46 possible cuts that immediately work with my discard.
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 5:44 AM
toss the touchies?
JQT says: And . . . Admiration for the Alliteration!
Gougie00 says: Striking similes. Sudden a thought came like a full-blown rose, flushing his brow
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 7:23 AM
I have defended the 69 throw many times: although it is hard to get a run, very often the opponent will throw 6X or 9X.
Ras2829 says: Hi Jazzselke: Reno bound for the Veterans' Day Classic. You're right about the 6-9 scoring six points quite frequently because of the high percentage 6-X, 9-K, or 9-Q discards by n/d. Having said that, the 6-7 scores 8-11 25% more than does the 6-9 and scores 12 or more 30% more frequently than does the 6-9. The downside of the 6-7 is that it misses entirely 33.291%. That's a whole bunch of zeroes, and 6-9 will never tally zero.
mfetchCT425
1395 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 7:49 AM
Like keeping the touching cards together for possible double run on both sides and I think 6-9 is strongest throw to our crib from this hand while keeping total of 4 points. Thought about 6-7 toss, but rather keep the points at this stage in the game.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Thursday 8:14 AM
Going for a big hand or big crib this early in the game.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019

 
 
 
Thursday 9:37 AM
Decided on (6 7) discard, retaining 9-J-J-K - before reading any comments - I like to do it that way.

Am gratified to see JQT and I agree. (Seems any time I disagree with him I'm wrong(but close, like yesterday!).

In our crib (5 7) is about equal weight to (9 6)- actually worth a microgram more.

At 12*-13 we would like to make 32+ pts to hit 44 next time we are dealer. (IOW, we're about 6 pts behind and need to play offensively to try to cover that 6 pt gap.) After the 7 cut, we have only 2 or 3 in hand. Was hoping for maybe a double run or a 5-cut, but such is life. But potentially a fine crib, with 6-7-7 known to be there. Did Opp discard an 8-something? Especially an 8-6? Or an 8-9? Or even a 2-6 or 2-7? With pegging, these cribs could get us well along the way to, in two deals, making those 32 pts, or near to that.

Take whatever points you can in pegging. Pair a J lead. Pair a Q lead. Pair a 9 lead. 15 a 6 lead. Of course, 15 any 5 lead, if he should do that.
JCM says: There are other potentially good cribs than the ones mentioned. Maybe Opp discarded a 7-8? Ot an A-something. Especially an A-8. Or a 5-something. How about 5-7? On leading, play a J on an A lead.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019

 
 
 
Thursday 9:50 AM
Typo:

"In our crib (5 7)..." should read "In our crib (6 7)...."
JCM says: Would be nice if this site provided an edit function.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Thursday 10:49 AM
Not like I haven't been here before, all alone. While I did not know anything about 1 star per RAS, I did know 9,6 in the crib is nothing to write home about. I don't have any tables memorized eiter, that's not why a tossed the Jacks. I wanted to keep the whole 4 points, keep the 6,7 together, and peg with lower non X cards.
Ras2829 says: Hi dgergens: Who knows? You might be on to something!
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Thursday 3:56 PM
With a poor hand I'd opt for discarding close cards to our box. But here we have 4pts so we can keep 2+2pts or 4+0pts or sacrifice 2pts with 2+0pts:

7-J-J-Q: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 7¼pts

6-9-J-J: 4pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.23) = 7¼pts

9-J-J-Q: 2pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.98) = 7pts

6-7-9-JD: 2pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = 6¾pts

6-7-9-Q: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.33) = 7¼pts

Potential:

7-J-J-Q: Improves with 5555, 777, 8888 + 13xxs = 24 cuts = 52.2% up to 6/8pts with 5555, 10101010, JJ, KKKK = 14 cuts. Plus 21 diamonds and clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 21/46 = 0.46pt

6-9-J-J: Improves with 5555, 666, 999, 10101010, JJ = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 8/10pts with all cuts. Plus 21 diamonds and clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 21/46 = 0.46pt

9-J-J-Q: Improves with 5555, 666, 999 + 13xXs = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 6/8pts with 5555, 10101010, JJ, KKKK = 14 cuts. Plus 21 diamonds and clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 21/46 = 0.46pt

6-7-9-JD: Improves with 2222, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 999, 10101010, JJ = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 5/6/7/8pts with 5555, 666, 8888, 999, 10101010 = 18 cuts. Plus 11 diamonds for 1pt for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

6-7-9-Q: Improves with 2222, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 999, QQQ = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/7/8pts with 5555, 666, 8888, 999 = 14 cuts.

Position:

It looks like its 2nd deal and we've scored 2pts above average and first Dealer scored 3pts below. We still have a positional disadvantage though so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think 6-7-9-Q and 6-7-9-JD will peg best.

Summary:

6-7-9-Q has the same starting value as two others although it doesn't have the benefit of the nob potential in hand. It has no more cuts for improvement than the other hands but the improvement from 2pts to 6-8pts is tremendous. 6-7-9-J has a few more cuts but starts with ½pt less but has approx. ¼pt for the nob potential. 6-9-J-J has the best maximum at 10pts but it starts with 4pts. 6-7-9-Q and 6-7-9-JD should also peg better. I'll throw the suited J-Q.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 7:55 PM
No real good choice. Keep 2 in hand 2 in crib. Best of a bad lot.