Wednesday 3:11 AM

If I was dealer the choice of retention and discard would be clear. Since it is not, I am discarding 3-8 (we have 2 of the sevens) and holding this hand for 4 points to start. Although there are fewer cuts for improvement over tossing 3-7, the maximum is higher at 16 points.

   

Wednesday 3:38 AM

Toss 3-8 or 3-7? I'm holding two 5s, so 3-7 (adding to 10) has negative delta. Same with holding two 7s with tossing an 8. Interesting puzzle

   

Wednesday 3:50 AM

Tough hand today!i went back and forth on either 7-8 or 3-5 and finally decided to keep the 7-7-8 convo together and go for the middle card cut-cannot find fault with anyone keeping the 3-5-5-7 or even the 5-5-7-7-although that would be my 3rd choice here

   

Wednesday 4:02 AM

I am choice number three then. 3-5 or 7-8 sounds to be a six point crib possible, too many for me to accept here. At least a six cut would be two more then 5-7-7-8. Five lead my thought here. dec

   

Wednesday 4:48 AM

5-8 from me. Two sevens and a second 5 in my hand must create some negative delta.

Just about two-thirds of the possible cut cards are not X cards (30/46).

   

Wednesday 5:27 AM

38 gives us our highest expected net average (hand-crib) and I think position dictates caution rather than aggression. Frankly though 37 gives the same average and is ever so slightly better defensively. Not sure there is a real difference between the two.

   

Wednesday 5:51 AM

Also liked 5-5-7-7 and 5-5-7-8, but thought even with the more dangerous toss, this gave us the most chances to get into good position on 4th street.

   

Wednesday 5:54 AM

I think I need 10 or more, and will risk the 78. Lets see how foolish this is.

   

Wednesday 6:13 AM

We need to get as close as possible to Hole 96 to be in dealing position, otherwise we are not likely to win the game anyhow. Not crazy about throwing 35 of course, but we are holding 2 7s.

   

Wednesday 6:48 AM

With the 2 sevens in my hand the toss of the 8 was rather straightforward. I kept the six points and split the 5's.

The Ace starter card makes me feel a little better so I only have to drink half the bottle of Peptobismol.

   

Wednesday 7:41 AM

Well of course it's the other guy's crib when I get hand like that.

   

Wednesday 8:34 AM

Tricky. At -6/+6 with good cards I'm tempted to toss 7-8. But it's so liable to leave us well short of 96. OTOH toss 3-8 seems to leave us a hand that's too weak and misses on many cuts.

This toss is significantly safer than 7-8 and leaves a hand nearly as good.

It's not true that we need to get to 96. Dealer has only a 6 point surplus. We could get into good position by his failing to reach 86, too.

   

Wednesday 8:38 AM

"Yes, Virginia, you can be 'Ahead and Losing' in Cribbage!"

We might appear to be in the lead here, but the Dealer currently has us behind the proverbial eight ball. How can we get out from behind it?

As Pone, we wish to become Next Dealer at or beyond Hole 96, by hook or by crook, but it sure seems a long way from here to there.

If we play it *safe* here, and Toss (3 8), we would have to Cut either a 6 Card or a Trey in order to ignite our hand, and that's only seven cards.

Are we forced to risk either Toss (3 5) or Toss (7 8) today in order to hold Six Points, and more importantly, a better chance to double it? If we Keep (5 7 7 8), then about Sixteen Cuts (333, 6666, 77, 888, 9999) will get us moving; yet if we Keep (3 5 5 7), then more like Thirty-One Cuts (333, 4444, 55, 6666, 77, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK) will launch us onto Fourth Street.

Granted, Toss (7 8) is probably going to help the Dealer significantly more than Toss (3 5), but since the former allows us to DOUBLE OUR CHANCES of meeting our objective, we could throw caution to the wind and Toss (7 8), come what may! Is there any other way to approach this mess?

Actually, we could Toss (3 7) and maybe find a "Happy Medium" (where is Miss Cleo when you need her most?). This is a very attractive half-measure, and it might work to both give us a little bit of offense while still not throwing away too much into the Enemy Crib. At Hole 80, we probably *still* have enough TIME to handle this in such a delicate manner. So, Let's Keep (5 5 7 8) and Toss (3 7).

After the Ace Cut, we can pretend we have a phone call, and head for the door. Seriously, with only Four Points assured, we are in possible trouble. Still, I might lead a 5 Card and hope that the Dealer has one of these (and NOT two of them!) and is foolish enough to PAIR us! But actually, it may avoid us getting 'trapped' with our 5 Card(s) later.

If our Opponent doesn't stumble badly here as well, we shall have to make up about Ten or Twelve Holes between now and the end of the game, or we might come in second place. We were trailing anyway.

   

Wednesday 9:23 AM

For me, it seems it's always Opp's crib when I get these sorts of hands. Doesn't this happen to everybody?

Reluctantly, I go for the (3 8) discard, retaining 5-5-7-7. Safest way to go.

At 80-76*, we want to hit 96(as dealer) before Opp. We won't achieve that this hand, so we want to slow Opp. down.

After the A cut, we have 6 pts(86 now) and pegging potential. We could get quite close to 96 as dealer next hand.

So I would peg aggressively. As JQT often suggests, I would venture leading a 5.

   

Wednesday 11:53 AM

The off chance of cutting into position along with 3-8 for defense. Let’s do it.

   

Wednesday 4:09 PM

Based on my scant empirical data, discarding 3-7 will give slightly higher combined value (pegs, hand score,less crib score). The 3-7 average drops since we are holding four cards (5-5-7-8) all of which detract from the value of the 3-7 in the approximate amount of .64. Knowing that I have only four points after the cut will choose BOLD pegging strategy, lead the 5S. If that doesn't work for some pegs have still retained 3 different cards including the 5-7 gapper and consecutive 7-8. Not likely to peg enough to matter significantly though ought to make the effort as this board is getting mighty long for me sans pegs. My goal is to deal from 4th street CPZ (95-99). That's a very tall order given the four points in this hand.

   

Wednesday 4:18 PM

I think it will be between 3-5S-7-7 (5C-8), 3-5-5-7S (7D-8), (5-5-7-7 (3-8), 5-5-7S-8 (3-7D) or 5C-7-7-8 (3-5S):

3-5S-7-7: 6pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.30) = -½pt

3-5-5-7S: 6pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.63) = -1½pts

5-5-7-7: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.05) = -1pt

5-5-7S-8: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.01) = -1pt

5C-7-7-8: 6pts - 6¾pts (Scjell: 6.78) = -¾pt

Potential:

3-5S-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 333, 4444, 55, 6666, 77, 888 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 9/10/12pts with 333, 4444, 55, 6666, 77, 888 = 18 cuts.

3-5-5-7S: Improves with 333, 4444, 55, 6666, 77, 888 + 16xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 10/12pts with 333, 4444, 55, 6666, 77 + 16xXs = 31 cuts.

5-5-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 333, 55, 6666, 77, 888 + 16xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 8/10/12/16pts with 333, 55, 6666, 77, 888 + 16xXs = 30 cuts.

5-5-7S-8: Improves with 2222, 333, 55, 6666, 77, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 7/8/10/12pts with all cuts.

5C-7-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 55, 6666, 77, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 10/12/14pts with 333, 6666, 77, 888, 9999 = 16 cuts.

Position:

Dealer is 6pts past the 70pt positional hole and we need 16pts to reach the 96pt positional hole so I'll play Offense to reach this if possible.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg well but perhaps 5-5-7-7 the least.

Summary:

3-5S-7-7 has the best starting value and although 5C-7-7-8 has the most cuts for improvement 5-5-7S-8 has 38 cuts for 7-12pts. It starts with ½pt less than 3-5S-7-7 but with 22 cuts scoring 10pts or more I think I'll go for the 3-7D throw.

   

Wednesday 4:23 PM

At 80-76* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W3 %____W4 %
5-5-7-8___7.65+1.26+(-4.15)=4.76____21.5____32.5
5-5-7-7___7.83+1.17+(-4.31)=4.69____22.7____32.1
3-5-5-7S__9.74+1.48+(-6.80)=4.46____32.2____31.7
3-5S-7-7__8.83+1.24+(-5.89)=4.18____26.5____30.7
5C-7-7-8__9.26+1.24+(-6.53)=3.97____28.4____30.3

Offense______L3 %____L4 %
5-5-7-8______26.6____53.0
5-5-7-7______26.6____52.8
3-5-5-7S_____39.0____31.7
3-5S-7-7_____33.0____55.1
5C-7-7-8_____35.5____55.3

5-5-7-8 is best for expected averages by 0.07pt over 5-5-7-7 and although 3-5-5S-7 is very much best for Win %s it is also very high for Loss %s because of the very risky 7-8 discard. So I'll select 3-7D to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead the 5S and play Offense:

Lead______________Our Pegging Pts.
5______________________1.48
7______________________1.24
8______________________1.21

   

Wednesday 11:47 PM

I went 3-7. 5-5-7-8 since it gets a lot of good cuts and sacrifices only 2 points to mitigate of opponent getting a massive crib.

   

Thursday 2:45 AM

For 11/4/19. I thought I'd posted these. inept operator error:

At 116-116* playing a Bold strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages (ignoring the crib) and Win %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Total_____Win %
A-2-4-K___4.09+1.87=5.96______91.4
A-2-6-7___3.74+1.96=5.70______81.1
2-4-6-7___3.83+1.54=5.37______79.1
A-4-7-K___3.83+1.41=5.24______85.3
A-4-6-K___3.85+1.22=5.07______86.1
A-2-4-6___3.26+1.74=5.00______85.4
2-6-7-K___3.59+1.24=4.83______72.8
A-4-6-7___2.98+1.80=4.78______82.6

A-2-4-K is best for hand and pegging expected averages by 0.26pt.and also for Win %s by a significant margin. So I'll select 6-7 to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead the A and play Defense;

Lead______Dealer's Pegging Pts.___Win %___Loss %
2_______________(-2.09)___________83.4_____8.6
4_______________(-2.15)___________82.2_____8.5
A_______________(-2.26)___________84.2_____8.3
K_______________(-2.31)___________70.0____15.9

Although the 2 lead minimises Dealer's pegging the Ace lead has the highest chance of Winning and lowest chance of Losing so I'll lead the A.