November 5, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
33*-32  ?
57%
14%
14%
9%
3%
0%
Total votes: 195

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

JQT
2642 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 3:18 AM
I think we'll see four popular choices today: Toss (7 7), Toss (J Q), Toss (5 J), and Toss (5 Q).

I may be in the minority with my Toss (5 J) preference, but I like Jacks and 5 Cards in my Crib.

Toss (7 7) could work well or it could fizzle: it's important to realize that it has little in common with Toss (7 8).

And then there is Toss (J Q), which is part of the trio I have written about at length, those "Touching Cousins" of Toss (3 4), Toss (6 7), and Toss (J Q) as we have possible today.

Touching Cards begin with no points (except for 7-8) and yet they are frequently more powerful than many high PAIRS, such as T-T, Q-Q, and K-K.

Any of those four aforementioned discards could work well for us today, and it seems mostly to be a "matter of style" as to which any given player may wish to choose.

Still, with RAS at the helm of this puzzle, I am ready to learn how he breaks down such a discard.
dec
4689 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 3:38 AM
Seen this one before J-5 vs 7-7. I believe J-5 is the victor here. Still possibility for a dozen here. Play thy main hand. Offense-Offense. dec
mrob2199
177 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 3:41 AM
Hello people-good to be back on the site after a week of pegging at the grand national and a week of recovering from the horrible bug that permeated the playing room and hit so many players hard-in today’s hand the only value I see is throwing the pair of Sevens in my own crib-i want the full potential in case of an 8 cut-which indeed we get-I also want to keep my 2 pictures with my 5-a hidden value could be found in pegging with this hand as well-if we want to get adventurous we can match a picture lead knowing we have an ace for backup and a 5 for the second round of pegging -if all goes to plan it could be a 7-0 pegging bonanza for us!
Andy (muesli64)
1617 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Tuesday 4:17 AM
I prefer 7-7. For reasons Rob puts forward.
glmccuskey
3111 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Tuesday 4:29 AM
J-5 is better than 7-7. Defense to the lead.
Rosemarie44
1409 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 5:02 AM
I like starting with 4 points in the hand and the pair of sevens in my crib. With the starter card we have a total of 10 points! Coffee is calling.
james500
2315 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 5:31 AM
I agree with the consensus opinion that it's a three-way battle between X-5 Vs 7-7 today.

John mentions J-Q as a possible fourth alternative. I don't take the decision to disagree with him lightly, I'm still very much a "Padawan" to his "Jedi Knight", but the 5 card looks redundant in A-5-7-7, which seems to me to be a waste. I suspect I'm not thinking holistically enough.
cwed
928 votes

Joined: October 2014

   
Tuesday 6:47 AM
7-7 all day long.
Jazzselke
1338 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 7:11 AM
If the face cards were not adjoining I would throw the 5J. But if I am behind and need points would employ the pegging strategy described by Rob.
horus93
573 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Tuesday 7:20 AM
Tossup today it seems between 7-7 and 5-J. We want to peg defense at +14/-2 but I don't see any great difference between the two keeps there either. Magic 11 with a J or Q isn't all that great.
JCM
300 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Tuesday 7:33 AM
I go for (J 5). Will be close to (7 7) discard but (J-5) has a higher maximum combined crib/hand.
mfetchCT425
431 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 8:30 AM
Agree with above folks who went this way and like Dan’s (Jazzselke) note about the touching face cards.
joekayak
919 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Tuesday 10:07 AM
Small hand rule. In position. Less than 8 points between hand and crib. Keep the points.
wasa
1412 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Tuesday 10:25 AM
As others. 7-7 or J-5? I think J-5 better in my crib since pone loves tossing me T-K
JRCeagle78
757 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Tuesday 11:33 AM
I couldn't see tossing 7-7 into the crib because it is more than likely that the pone was NOT going to give them any help. I decided to keep them with the Ace and put the J-5 into the crib. There is a higher probability for the pone to discard an X card. The 8 starter card really boosted my karma.
Gougie00
4084 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 2:34 PM
I'll toss 77
Coeurdelion
4007 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 2:44 PM
I think it's between A-5-J-Q (7-7), A-5-7-7 (J-Q) or A-7-7-X (5-X):

A-5-J-Q: 4pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.92) = 9¾pts

A-5-7-7: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = 8¾pts

A-7-7-J: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 10½pts

A-7-7-Q: 4pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 11pts

Potential:

A-5-J-Q: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 9999 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/10pts with 4444, 555 + 14xXs = 21 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

A-5-7-7: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 555, 6666, 77, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/10/12pts with AAA, 2222, 3333, 6666, 77, 8888 = 21 cuts.

A-7-7-J: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 77, 8888, JJJ = 19 cuts = 19/46 = 41.3% up to 8/12pts with AAA, 77, 8888 = 9 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

A-7-7-Q: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 77, 8888, QQQ = 19 cuts = 19/46 = 41.3% up to 8/12pts with AAA, 77, 8888 = 9 cuts.

Position:

Pone is only 12pts short of positional hole and the average is 10pts so I'll play Defense to try to keep them short.

Pegging:

I think A-5-7-7 should peg best.

Summary:

A-7-7-Q has the best starting value but not many cuts for improvement and only 9 cuts for 8/12pts. A-5-7-7 has the lowest starting value at 8¾pts (2¼pts lower than A-7-7-Q) but the most number of cuts for improvement at 42 and 21 cuts for 8-12pts. I think this may make up the 2¼pts and as it should peg best I'll throw the J-Q.
HalscribCLX
3783 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 2:46 PM
At 33-32* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
A-5-J-Q___6.67+(-2.07)+5.77=10.37____14.4____34.3
A-7-7-J___5.63+(-2.13)+6.54=10.04____12.3____33.9
A-7-7-Q___5.39+(-2.13)+6.67=10.03____12.0____33.4
A-5-7-7___7.09+(-2.22)+4.65= 9.52____12.6____33.0

Defense_______L6 %____L7 %
A-5-J-Q_______14.0____34.7
A-7-7-J_______12.9____33.9
A-7-7-Q_______12.9____34.0
A-5-7-7_______13.7____35.0

A-5-J-Q is best for expected averages by 0.33pt and slightly best for Win %s. It is not best for Loss %s but even so I'll select 7-7 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
dgergens
427 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Tuesday 3:03 PM
Might depend on whom I'm playing. But good players probably not going to give me something to help 7,7 , so I tossed Q,5 in my crib. Would be interesting to hear decision process from a seasoned play regarding Q vs J on this one.
RubyTuesday
248 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Tuesday 3:43 PM
Ras2829
3543 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 4:13 PM
Submitted this puzzle as whether you toss 7-7, J-Q, or 5-J there is not much difference. In this case choosing defense as a pegging strategy trying to keep n/d short of 2nd street CPZ (43-47), knowing I have guaranteed peg, four points in hand, and a minimum of six in the crib, will ;lay off the lead unless a X-pointer is led, then will ditch the lone 5 to score 15-2. If you flip it over to a position in which dealer would choose offense, holding A-5-7-7 (JQ discard) would be the way to fly as only the cut of a four spot would not add value to the hand. The JQ has a good chance to grow in the crib (especially so when we are holding J-Q-5 with the Jack and five spot both key connectors among our six cards. Appreciate the substantive comments though most of the votes went to this choice.
RubyTuesday
248 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Tuesday 6:00 PM
Thank you!