November 5, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
33*-32  ?
57%
14%
14%
9%
3%
0%
Total votes: 195
JQT
4137 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:18 AM
I think we'll see four popular choices today: Toss (7 7), Toss (J Q), Toss (5 J), and Toss (5 Q).

I may be in the minority with my Toss (5 J) preference, but I like Jacks and 5 Cards in my Crib.

Toss (7 7) could work well or it could fizzle: it's important to realize that it has little in common with Toss (7 8).

And then there is Toss (J Q), which is part of the trio I have written about at length, those "Touching Cousins" of Toss (3 4), Toss (6 7), and Toss (J Q) as we have possible today.

Touching Cards begin with no points (except for 7-8) and yet they are frequently more powerful than many high PAIRS, such as T-T, Q-Q, and K-K.

Any of those four aforementioned discards could work well for us today, and it seems mostly to be a "matter of style" as to which any given player may wish to choose.

Still, with RAS at the helm of this puzzle, I am ready to learn how he breaks down such a discard.
dec
6328 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:38 AM
Seen this one before J-5 vs 7-7. I believe J-5 is the victor here. Still possibility for a dozen here. Play thy main hand. Offense-Offense. dec
mrob2199
1408 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:41 AM
Hello people-good to be back on the site after a week of pegging at the grand national and a week of recovering from the horrible bug that permeated the playing room and hit so many players hard-in today’s hand the only value I see is throwing the pair of Sevens in my own crib-i want the full potential in case of an 8 cut-which indeed we get-I also want to keep my 2 pictures with my 5-a hidden value could be found in pegging with this hand as well-if we want to get adventurous we can match a picture lead knowing we have an ace for backup and a 5 for the second round of pegging -if all goes to plan it could be a 7-0 pegging bonanza for us!
glmccuskey says: Hi rob, I question your adventurous take on risking matching a picture lead. Would not risk that with non dealer at 32.
mrob2199 says: It’s not really that big a risk-if he has the trip he gets you 6-4 and then he leads back to your 5-and if he has 3 pictures and a 5 he traps your 1 remaining picture for possibly 3,4,or 7 points
cwed says: Rob: I like this scenario and would play it the same. Question: if the pone leads a 10 or K, do you take the 15-2, or do you play a face card and try to entice a run of three so you can close with your Ace for 31-2, and potentially get a 15-2 with your 5 on the next sequence?
bbaer1 says: Got the bug before the GN and missed it.
mfetchCT425 says: Very interesting rob. Like your thinking here. That GN bug hit us hard too here in CT. I’m still trying to recover.
mrob2199 says: Good question Dave-I think I like taking the 15 there when the pone has 2 chances to score points on my face reply-the pair or the run-maybe on 4th street I’ll trade the points but not right here
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:17 AM
I prefer 7-7. For reasons Rob puts forward.
glmccuskey
4076 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:29 AM
J-5 is better than 7-7. Defense to the lead.
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:02 AM
I like starting with 4 points in the hand and the pair of sevens in my crib. With the starter card we have a total of 10 points! Coffee is calling.
james500
3896 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:31 AM
I agree with the consensus opinion that it's a three-way battle between X-5 Vs 7-7 today.

John mentions J-Q as a possible fourth alternative. I don't take the decision to disagree with him lightly, I'm still very much a "Padawan" to his "Jedi Knight", but the 5 card looks redundant in A-5-7-7, which seems to me to be a waste. I suspect I'm not thinking holistically enough.
JQT says: Like Toss (3 4) and Toss (6 7), Toss (J Q) is among those "Touching Cousin" Dealer Discards that begin with nothing and yet often soar to an average of nearly Six Points in Our Crib, beating several of the Toss (X X) PAIRS. Even that PAIR of 7 Cards will only average about one point more than this! And a 5 in Dealer's Hand can be a very useful pegging card. For these reasons, I believe that Toss (J Q) may be a viable choice today, due to this "synergy." Is it the BEST discard choice? Perhaps not at this position ... but I don't think we should underestimate it. Having that Jack alongside that Queen can be powerful whether it's in our Hand or our Crib, and so I don't "split them up" lightly. Having a 5 Card alongside the Jack in Our Crib seems to be adequate compensation, as this is a Top Tier Dealer Discard (TTDD). (And you know that I just love inventing these new initialisms : - )
james500 says: Hi John, hope life's treating you well. Thanks for taking the time to provide such a thorough response to my post. As you imply, I think I am guilty of "underestimating" the J-Q option. It'll be educational to see how Hal ranks it against the three 4+2=6 point alternatives, to see how much of its static two point "handicap" it can overcome.
cwed
1355 votes

Joined: October 2014

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:47 AM
7-7 all day long.
bbaer1 says: With you here. Opponent may have a useless 8 with us having two sevens. Or you may cut an 8. Hey, what do you know! Looking forward to unveiling that crib.
cwed says: Right on, Brian! I'll take the risky pegs as Rob delineates above and hope to find a 12-point crib, which will propel me to good receiving position at the end of second street.
Jazzselke
2570 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:11 AM
If the face cards were not adjoining I would throw the 5J. But if I am behind and need points would employ the pegging strategy described by Rob.
horus93
1273 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:20 AM
Tossup today it seems between 7-7 and 5-J. We want to peg defense at +14/-2 but I don't see any great difference between the two keeps there either. Magic 11 with a J or Q isn't all that great.
horus93 says: +15/-2
horus93 says: In an offensive position I'd toss 7-7 for the magic 11 + having a 5 in hand, like rob says
JCM says: Score is 33*-32. Still figuring out those Schell ratios. Today's is +15/-2. We figure pone's part by comparing his score to the NEXT target(40) - after adding 10 pts.(32+10-40 = -2) - right? And we figure dealer's part by comparing his score to the PREVIOUS target - right? (33-18 = +15). My question is yesterday in your examples, in all but one you did exactly this. But one example was different: 43-36* => +9/-8. Here both figures are compared to the NEXT target(44), and none refer to the previous target(18). What are the rules about choosing the target(s) to compare to? Thanks!
JCM says: Pone's target is 44. So " We figure pone's part by comparing his score to the NEXT target(40) - after adding 10 pts.(32+10-40 = -2) - right? " should read: " We figure pone's part by comparing his score to the NEXT target(44) - after adding 10 pts.(32+10-44 = -2) - right?" Sorry for the error>
horus93 says: If dealer has reached or passed his "par" and pone is over 10 points away from the next "par" then dealer has the surplus, otherwise pone has the surplus
horus93 says: Schell's annotated games are a good way to get a feel for his system, though it does have shortcomings and many strong players don't use it at all or don't use it until third street.
horus93 says: I think the logic of it is sound but real hands are so unpredictable that positional considerations might well be worth less than expected averages before late in the game. Still the 16-point positional swing at 0*-0 is worth a nearly 10% difference in winning odds.
Ras2829 says: If you would like to simplify positional cribbage, not have to remember those dealer/non-dealer par holes from start to finish, E-mail raswino29@outlook.com. Learn about those four Critical Position Zones and how dealer and non-dealer should respond to them relative to the location of their pegs.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:33 AM
I go for (J 5). Will be close to (7 7) discard but (J-5) has a higher maximum combined crib/hand.
mfetchCT425
1383 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 8:30 AM
Agree with above folks who went this way and like Dan’s (Jazzselke) note about the touching face cards.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 10:07 AM
Small hand rule. In position. Less than 8 points between hand and crib. Keep the points.
wasa
2991 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Tuesday 10:25 AM
As others. 7-7 or J-5? I think J-5 better in my crib since pone loves tossing me T-K
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 11:33 AM
I couldn't see tossing 7-7 into the crib because it is more than likely that the pone was NOT going to give them any help. I decided to keep them with the Ace and put the J-5 into the crib. There is a higher probability for the pone to discard an X card. The 8 starter card really boosted my karma.
Gougie00
5703 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 2:34 PM
I'll toss 77
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Tuesday 2:44 PM
I think it's between A-5-J-Q (7-7), A-5-7-7 (J-Q) or A-7-7-X (5-X):

A-5-J-Q: 4pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.92) = 9¾pts

A-5-7-7: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = 8¾pts

A-7-7-J: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 10½pts

A-7-7-Q: 4pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 11pts

Potential:

A-5-J-Q: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 9999 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/10pts with 4444, 555 + 14xXs = 21 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

A-5-7-7: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 555, 6666, 77, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/10/12pts with AAA, 2222, 3333, 6666, 77, 8888 = 21 cuts.

A-7-7-J: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 77, 8888, JJJ = 19 cuts = 19/46 = 41.3% up to 8/12pts with AAA, 77, 8888 = 9 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

A-7-7-Q: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 77, 8888, QQQ = 19 cuts = 19/46 = 41.3% up to 8/12pts with AAA, 77, 8888 = 9 cuts.

Position:

Pone is only 12pts short of positional hole and the average is 10pts so I'll play Defense to try to keep them short.

Pegging:

I think A-5-7-7 should peg best.

Summary:

A-7-7-Q has the best starting value but not many cuts for improvement and only 9 cuts for 8/12pts. A-5-7-7 has the lowest starting value at 8¾pts (2¼pts lower than A-7-7-Q) but the most number of cuts for improvement at 42 and 21 cuts for 8-12pts. I think this may make up the 2¼pts and as it should peg best I'll throw the J-Q.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 2:46 PM
At 33-32* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
A-5-J-Q___6.67+(-2.07)+5.77=10.37____14.4____34.3
A-7-7-J___5.63+(-2.13)+6.54=10.04____12.3____33.9
A-7-7-Q___5.39+(-2.13)+6.67=10.03____12.0____33.4
A-5-7-7___7.09+(-2.22)+4.65= 9.52____12.6____33.0

Defense_______L6 %____L7 %
A-5-J-Q_______14.0____34.7
A-7-7-J_______12.9____33.9
A-7-7-Q_______12.9____34.0
A-5-7-7_______13.7____35.0

A-5-J-Q is best for expected averages by 0.33pt and slightly best for Win %s. It is not best for Loss %s but even so I'll select 7-7 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:03 PM
Might depend on whom I'm playing. But good players probably not going to give me something to help 7,7 , so I tossed Q,5 in my crib. Would be interesting to hear decision process from a seasoned play regarding Q vs J on this one.
mrob2199 says: Dgergens respect your opinion but don’t you think K-8 is a good defensive discard?that would benefit our 7-7 discard
RubyTuesday
897 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:43 PM
RubyTuesday says: Oops didn’t mean to post without a comment. I threw the suited 5Q and am intrigued to know why others threw the J instead.
Ras2829 says: Hi Buby Tuesday: Jack is the key connector among the X-point cards and is seldom discarded by n/d. Dealer needs to provide the Jack. You'll often be rewarded when doing so, and the Jack is Just as likely to score an extra point in the crib as in the hand if matching the suit of the starter card. I just play the numbers. 5-J averages 7.088 (1,678) ranks 3/91. The 5-Q averages 6.593 (1,251) 7/91.
RubyTuesday says: Thank you.
Ras2829
5126 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:13 PM
Submitted this puzzle as whether you toss 7-7, J-Q, or 5-J there is not much difference. In this case choosing defense as a pegging strategy trying to keep n/d short of 2nd street CPZ (43-47), knowing I have guaranteed peg, four points in hand, and a minimum of six in the crib, will ;lay off the lead unless a X-pointer is led, then will ditch the lone 5 to score 15-2. If you flip it over to a position in which dealer would choose offense, holding A-5-7-7 (JQ discard) would be the way to fly as only the cut of a four spot would not add value to the hand. The JQ has a good chance to grow in the crib (especially so when we are holding J-Q-5 with the Jack and five spot both key connectors among our six cards. Appreciate the substantive comments though most of the votes went to this choice.
RubyTuesday
897 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:00 PM
Thank you!
RubyTuesday says: I’m not doing very well with my commenting today, first of all I posted an empty comment, then this wa supposed to be a reply to Ras’s reply.