November 4, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by mfetchct425
116-116*  ?
43%
19%
14%
5%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
Total votes: 199
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:20 AM
This hold for me covers all cuts ace thru nine. With the ace cut I have four here so hope opponent is agressive and pairs my four lead if they get stuck with at least three face cards put count up to fourteen. Last hope for a run on 6-7 play. dec
Rosemarie44 says: I'm still drinking my coffee, dec but I believe the Ace does not increase the value of holding 2-4-6-7?
Rosemarie44 says: I'm still drinking my coffee, dec but I believe the Ace does not increase the value of holding 2-4-6-7?
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Monday 3:43 AM
... and start the peg by playing the deuce.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:45 AM
Needing Five Points to WIN as Pone seems trivial, since slightly greater than Ten Points is average: but then we pick up this 'whole lot of nothing' hand that starts us off with only Two Points! Blech!

And as Pone, it's almost always an uphill climb, since we'll not only have the awful risk of a Jack Cut, but we must also lead during the pegging, during which we have no guarantees of scoring any points whatsoever.

With no Jacks dealt to us, this means that the Dealer enjoys a 4 DIV 46 equals 0.087 or nearly a 9% chance of cutting his or her way to Hole 118, where the prospects of the Dealer pegging out would become the main risk.

We want to keep in mind all of these seemingly conflicting ideas: a Jack Cut might occur, placing us essentially in a Pegging Battle at (116-118*); a Pegging Struggle may also ensue if we have a Cut Card that offers us no help, and thus we could be Three Holes 'shy', and; we might get a beneficial Cut Card that "covers" those last Five Holes, such that we wish to peg purely defensively.

We already calculated the odds of a Jack Cut, and while it's serious, it is less than 10% likely, so I would predict that it's much more likely that, with just a small dose of help from the Cut Card, we may have to peg One Hole here: and if so, we would need it badly. This tells me we should probably retain the (A 2) for some pegging strength, if at all possible.

Also, holding two "small" cards together protects us extremely well from the liability of either a "lone" Ace or "lone" Deuce that could "bite us" and help the Dealer instead. And so, the real dilemma today I think is whether to retain the (4 K) or the (6 7) alongside the (A 2). And we should decide this carefully!

The King would be a great 'safe' card if we get a good Cut Card today and do not need to peg at all. And the King will also serve to 'push' the Count up more quickly toward Thirty-One, to perhaps help us 'nab' that possibly much-needed "go" or (31-2). However, the (A 2 6 7) is a four-card "Sweet Sixteen," which oftentimes can 'net' us a (31-2) against a Dealer holding a 5 Card with any number of Ten Cards (or "X").

But a Dealer needing just Five Points is going to be fully biased toward the pegging, and not be at all concerned with holding "points" in the form of hands such as (5 X X X) or (5 5 X X). There is no need for it. This takes virtually ALL of the "Sweetness" out of a "Sweet-Sixteen" combination!

The "small" cards will all be "High Bias" cards for the Dealer here, as well as any "Key Connector" cards especially such as a 5 Card, or perhaps even a 7 Card. Dealer will very likely not be pegging in a normal fashion, so if we lead an Ace or a 4 Card, I would expect to see an aggressive "small" card played, and NOT a Ten Card (or "X"), such that we can probably forget about grabbing an early (15-2) with say our Ace and 4 Card combo.

I'm inclined to look at Keep (A 2 4 K) as our most flexible option, since it allows us to retain those two "small" cards, and it also allows us to either "push" the Count up quickly with the King, or peg defensively (if this called for) with the King as well. The King could really be a "goal getter" either offensively or defensively today!

And then we also have either Keep (A 2 6 7), or maybe its more tightly-bunched cousin, Keep (2 4 6 7), each as further possible candidate hands today, which both begin with Two Points. Sadly, we probably should not risk Keep (A 2 4 6), as it starts us off without breakfast (Zero Points)!

Keep (A 2 4 K) seems to have only about six loser Cuts (666, 777), whereas Keep (A 2 6 7) has a whopping eighteen loser Cuts (444, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKK), and meanwhile Keep (2 4 6 7) has a similar number of around eighteen loser Cuts (AAA, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKK). Almost End of Story Right There!

It's unfortunate that perhaps the interesting pegging hands of those two more "bunched-up" cards have so many fewer helpful Cuts, but since we might end up wanting to play defense today, maybe it's better we don't retain these anyway.

And therefore, I'll go with Keep (A 2 4 K), as it gets help from so many Ten Card Cuts (or "X"), and it's really not too shabby in the pegging department, either. In fact, that dual-nature of offense/defense provided by "Mr. King" is what really seems to make our potential hand "shine" here!

After the Ace Cut, we need NO pegging, and so I'll lead the 4 Card (not the Ace!). If Dealer either PAIRS it or plays any Ten Card (or "X"), I'll play our King, and not the Ace for (15-2) ... remember, we do NOT need any pegging points! By retaining our Ace-Deuce duo, we better protect ourselves as we approach Thirty-One.

And also, a "trapped" final 4 Card is the MAIN way a Dealer holding (5 6) could WIN upon the final volley of pegging, and so we're happy to unload it right off-the-bat. And while leading the Ace is indeed a safer play in isolation, in the aggregate, I prefer unloading the 4 Card first. Even with (and maybe especially with...) an Ace Cut, I would fear an Ace Lead getting PAIRED, and then not being able to 'jump' above a Count of Fifteen immediately.

We could *still* lose today if the Dealer gets us 'jammed up' into an unlikely case of the RUNS, but I think we've done our best to minimize any and all risks, and I really like our chances of winning.
Rosemarie44 says: You are correct, only 6 losers for A-2-4-K.
Goo says: Wow. Great info. On Thursday I’m going to my first crib club meeting
Hillchem says: Nice one goo. Hope you have fun!
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Monday 4:16 AM
I chose to retain 2 points with A-2-6-7 today. Fifteen face cards and a cut of a 4 do not help this hand.
Rosemarie44 says: Appears that A-2-4-K which I did not analyze looks good.
JQT says: With six unique cards dealt to us, mathematically we know that "6 choose 2" equals fifteen possible discard choices (type that string in quotes into Google: it's a calculator!). In normal 'over the board' play, we won't have time to analyze all fifteen possible discards, but as RAS frequently reminds us, Cribbage is a Game of Numbers, and with Sixteen "Ten Cards" (or "X"), when we're seeking just a few extra points to boost our hand, we know that there is a preponderance of what can be nicknamed "Nickels and Dimes" that score (15-2). Thus, in addition to retaining at least our Two Points today (which can come in two different 'flavors of either A-4-K or 2-6-7), and in addition to looking closely at retaining 'touching' cards like A-2 as well as the open-ended and thus more powerful 6-7, we should always consider likely (15-2) combinations. And these most often will arise from said "Nickels and Dimes," or cards such as 5 Cards (or cards that add up to five) along with any corresponding Ten Cards (or "X"). In doing this, we can quickly hone in on card clusters such as A-2, 6-7, and A-4-K as likely "building blocks," and that last group makes for many possibilities of getting an addition (15-2) from the Cut Card.
Rosemarie44 says: I appreciate your comments. Thank you, JQT
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Monday 4:27 AM
I like to hold 1-4-6-X. Powerful pegging hold. Nice cut. Lead the 4. Even without the cut, it is frequent to be able to peg 4 points with 4-X-A-X-6. Holding 7-6-4-A holds no points and relies solely on the cut plus pegging. Holding the X with A-4-6 gives me a cut plus pegging to get out. At this time, I am WAY WAY in the minority.
joekayak says: I mean holding A-4-6-K gives me just a cut to get out WITHOUT needing to peg. An Ace, a four, a King get me 6 points. A five gets me way enough. Any other X and any 6 and any 8 and any 9 get me to four and the dead hole without pegging. A 2 and a three and a seven are all that don't get me to at least 120.
joekayak says: I mean holding A-4-6-K gives me just a cut to get out WITHOUT needing to peg. An Ace, a four, a King get me 6 points. A five gets me way enough. Any other X and any 6 and any 8 and any 9 get me to four and the dead hole without pegging. A 2 and a three and a seven are all that don't get me to at least 120.
joekayak says: OOPS. I thought I selected 7-2 to throw. And hold A-4-6-K. What I commented applies to A-4-6-K hold.
joekayak says: OOPS. I thought I selected 7-2 to throw. And hold A-4-6-K. What I commented applies to A-4-6-K hold.
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Monday 4:54 AM
Didn't see John's A-2-4-K. Think it might perform better than the A-2-6-7 that I've chosen.

The cut makes it a moot point, but kicking myself none-the-less.

Ace lead should be the safest.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Monday 5:01 AM
Keep A 2. Lead the 4. But after that do I keep the 7 or K. Really don't know.
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Monday 5:23 AM
Stick a fork in me, I'm done.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Monday 6:11 AM
Decided on A-2-4-K(6 7) Before reading any comments here. JQT says it all in his eloquent style.

For me the main reasons were:

1. Only 6 cut cards that miss. The other keeps have more cuts failing.

2. It's a bad hand! But we at least start with 2 pts with this keep - needing only 3 more pts. These may be found after the cut or in the pegging. Turns out the cut(Ace) solved all those worries for us.

With the cut, I agree with JQT again - lead a the 4, try to avoid all pegging pts (to try to make Opp not peg much except his guaranteed 1 pegging pt.). We have all the pts we need for 1st count anyway.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Monday 7:01 AM
Thanks to JQT for his presentation yesterday of Positional play, surplus and deficit.

Interesting stuff.

Much of that post was a copy/paste from the cited reference.

I work best from concrete examples, though(I would hazard many in this group do as well.)

So I would like to ask JQT for some examples, if I may.

Suppose we are talking about the surplus/deficit around the 96-pt target. Suppose first we are dealer:

a. The score is 96*-96. We have no surplus/deficit, right? Pone has a 10-pt surplus, since we must add 10 pts to his score, right? Does this mean play Offense? His surplus > our surplus.

b. The score is 100*-94. Our surplus = 4(100-96), right? His surplus = 8(94+10-96), right? Again, his surplus > our surplus, so play offense, right?

c. Score is 101*-88. Our surplus = 5(101-96), right? His surplus = 2(88+10-96), right? So now our surplus > his surplus, so play defense, right?

d. Score is 107*-97. Our surplus is 11(107-96), right? His is also 11(97+10-96), right? We're equal, so play Optimal? If the 2 surpluses are just 1 pt different, say 107*-96 => surpluses of 11/10 - we still play optimal?

e. Score is 95*- 85. Implies our Surplus/his surplus = -1/-1. So we both have deficits, now right. Let's let the minus sign indicate deficits. We're equal at -1/-1, so play optimal?

f. Score is 94*-80. Implies two deficits: -2/-6, right? We're less worse off(-2) than he is(-6), so play offense?

g. Score is 91*-85. Implies we are both deficit. -5/-1, right? He is less worse off(-1) than we are(-5) so play defense, right?

h. Score is 97*-84. Implies 1/-2, right? We have a surplus of 1, he a deficit of -2. We're ahead, so play defense, right?

i. Score is 94*-88. Implies -2/2, right? He is ahead, so play offense, right?

I would like to ask all the equivalent questions if we are pone, instead of dealer. Instead, let me just check by asking only one question.

In (a) above, score was 96*-96, implying 0/10. We, as pone, are ahead, so play defense, right?(as dealer, we played offense, right?)

A bunch of questions. Thanks for your patience. Concrete examples help.
JQT says: This positional 'stuff' seems simple, but it takes some time and effort to grok it. I make frequent mistakes if I rush too quickly, but hopefully I can explain a few details even in spite of this! Be aware that any time either player is very near a Positional Hole, that the game's outcome (or rather its probabilistic certainty) becomes very dynamic (up for grabs!). Thus, if either player is near a positional hole, every additional point can boost odds of winning by several percent! When both players 'straddle' those positional holes, it may become somewhat obscure who is actually winning. It's extremely important to realize that while Pone's "reach" averages about Ten Holes due to First Hand Show, that prior to this, the Dealer has a lesser "reach" of around three to five holes due to the Dealer Pegging Advantage. I tend to look at these two phenomena as similar to Major and Minor "tides" (if you understand lunar cycles, it helps complete the analogy). Thus, a Pone at Hole 111 and a Dealer at about Hole 117 both have VICTORY within their reach. Just a Jack Cut can win the game for a Dealer at Hole 119, even if Pone is at Hole 120, so while the Dealer Pegging "reach" is smaller than Pone's First Hand Show "reach," the Dealer can sometimes therefore 'strike' first. (a) Dealing at Hole 96 should put us in control, UNLESS the Opponent is Ten Holes from the NEXT positional hole, which ... surprise ... is Hole 121. This is sort of "by definition" (implicit) if we back up from the Game Ending and realize that Pone at Hole 111 is Ten Holes away from 'striking distance' with First Hand Show. Thus, Pone at Hole 96 in a game that is tied is actually minus fifteen! Therefore, at (96*-96) we as the Dealer have a huge positional advantage with Zero Surplus, and Pone has a deficit of Fifteen Holes. OFFENSE should rule the day here. (b) At (100*-94) we have a surplus of Four, but our Opponent has a Deficit of Two. Remember, if one player is the FIRST ONE to become the Dealer from at-or-beyond the current positional hole, then that player has the positional advantage. Period. You only add that Ten Holes to Pone's score IF the current Dealer is currently sitting "short" of the particular par hole in question. Thus, we are Plus Four vs Minus Two, which would call for slight application of the brakes, or DEFENSE. Rather than go through all of the remainder of your examples of (c) through (i), I think it's best if we go back and begin right from the description by Schell and parse it very carefully, and then I think you will be able to see when it's appropriate to adjust Pone's score by Plus Ten, and when this is not warranted. Let's examine that specific sentence carefully: "Pone has the positional advantage if he or she has reached, or is within ten points of reaching, a positional hole that dealer has not yet reached. Otherwise dealer has the advantage." Read those final dozen or so words very closely! It looks like you are adding ten points to calculate Pone's surplus/deficit IN ALL (or in MANY) CASES; you only do this if the Dealer has NOT YET REACHED that positional hole. In other words, Dealer has "clinched" the positional advantage if dealing FIRST from a specific positional hole. It's a bit tricky to grasp the method and the logic, and many players therefore devise and use their own method to essentially do the same calculation. As Schell says, he wanted to write a book about it!
JQT says: If you are beginning to see that when we are Dealer just 'shy' of position, Pone can have a Surplus of TEN; and yet if we were Dealer from just ONE POINT FURTHER, that the same Pone at the same position is now at a Deficit of SIXTEEN, then you're beginning to grasp it! Once Dealer attains position and does so FIRST, then Pone must look to the NEXT POSITIONAL HOLE (Twenty-Six Holes further down the road) as the next target. Hole 121 is the (implied) Final Target. And thus, I might have miscalculated your second example (b) above because it's not just Minus Two but actually Minus Seventeen (that is what's needed to place Pone at Hole 111, which is Ten Holes distant from Victory, which is always the Final Target)! If you just begin to grasp this Twenty-Six Point "pendulum" concept, you're making headway (in spite of our little counting mistakes).
JCM says: Sorry, JQT. All my questions were based on faulty premises. I'll try to do better next time. Still puzzling on when to add 10 to phone's score.
JQT says: No worries: I've seen others here show the accurate positional data and the surplus/deficit numbers with very good accuracy, so you should get some helpful positional information from several players here that can assess it better than I can. And you're asking all of the right questions, which is a very good sign. Your keen insight and awareness reminds me of my buddy, Mike, from Montreal, who was visiting 'these parts' (my ZIP Code) exactly a year ago, and we played several great games, and I 'showed him a thing or two' (by losing a majority of games against him)! LOL But I think he got burned out a bit on Cribbage (I've seen this happen to many Chess players as well) and so I await his return. (If you count my years since joining this site and divide it into my vote count, you can see that I've taken a few lengthy Sabbaticals myself!) Don't get burned out on this game: it can and does happen occasionally to some very passionate players. I hope Mike (handle "Inushtuk1") reads this as some point, and comes "back into the fold." I may have to 'jump start' him and send him a round-trip jetBlue ticket!
travelingman2019
513 votes

Joined: December 2018
Monday 7:23 AM
With hold of 7624, can lead small and hope for run on end of 3 go 4, and the 2 pts I have already...this is a risky play, but the only hold I see to get the peg points needed, 762A also works as well, more points in hand to go out with that cut......this hold will depend on the cut how it is played....
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Monday 7:23 AM
Reviewing the above:

In (f), we're ahead(-2/-6), so we should actually play defense(not offense, as I suggested), right?

And in (g), he's ahead(-5/-1) so we should actually play offense(not defense, as I suggested), right?
horus93 says: In f we're ahead +24/-6 so should play defense unless we have really good cards enough to shorten the game by a whole deal, i.e. enough to get us past 111. You can't have two deficits in schell's shorthand. In g) we're at +21/-5 so we'd play defense.
horus93 says: Here are some examples. 50-52* is -10/+8. 74*-80 is +4/-6. 43-36* is +9/-8. 20-30* is -14/+12. 10*-8 is -8/+0. 99*-99 is +3/-12. 90-92* is +4/-4
horus93 says: The basic rule of thumb is that if your surplus OR deficit is greater than the opponents' surplus OR deficit you play defense. If the opposite, offense. And if the numbers are equal you should play offense with poor cards if you have the surplus, defense with good cards if you have the surplus, offense with good cards if you have the deficit, and defense with bad cards if you have the deficit
JCM says: Thanks! This clears some of the fog,but not all of it. 1. Cancel all my questions a thru I! Faulty premises. 2. I understand all your deficit/surplus examples. Schell notation. It seems, just as you can't have 2 deficits with Schell, you also can't have 2 surpluses, right? (Although one figure may be zero.) Always a surplus and a deficit, right? 3. Now the foggier part. The rule of thumb: iffy surplus or deficit is greater than OPEC's,play defense.... so if we're at 6/-1, then play defense, right? How about if we're at -6/1? Do we still play defense? The second part of the rule of thumb: if my surplus or deficit is less than Opp's, play offense. So if we're at -1/6, then play offense, right? How about if we're at -6/1? Play offense?
JCM says: Tablet translated opp as OPEC. Didn't notice. Sorry.
horus93 says: At -6/+1 you'd play defense, like if you were at 115*-112.
horus93 says: But it's important to note that it is a shorthand based on averages, you have to pay attention to the cards you actually hold. If you have absolute crap cards you might not be able to take your surplus for granted anymore, for example.
horus93 says: Also the shorthand doesn't work when the scores are far apart obviously. You wouldn't want to play defense at 70-96* ...
JCM says: So if we're at +1/-6, play offense? (Opp 6 is larger than our 1.) Also, it seems to me that when you calculate the Schell ratio, you always first add 10 to pone's score. Is this correct? I get that other considerations come into play, such as hand makeup(crap cards) and a big difference in scores. Thanks for helping!
horus93 says: Yeah you got it. Or to put it another way there are two sets of positional holes. Dealer's are negative 8, 18, 44, 70, 96 and 121. Pone's are 10 points behind dealer's so 8, 34, 60, 86 and 111. Schell slows the game down by 1 pt on 4th street in his calculations but this doesn't make any practical difference.
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Monday 7:47 AM
see above all do. finger twitch. dec
JCM says: Trying to figure out this comment - no success yet :-)
JCM says: Trying to figure out this comment - no success yet :-)
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Monday 8:44 AM
I'm like it this way too
Goo says: That is what I picked
horus93 says: This is a situation where cuts for improvement matter more than hand averages
horus93 says: As for lead it seems very unlikely that dealer will play a tenth card to a four. I'd rather lead the king if I needed points. As it is, not needing anything, I'd lead the four.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Monday 11:04 AM
Have not delved into everyone's explanations yet. For me, I need 4 points and a go to win. I gambled on an X card being flipped to give me the extra 2 points. Low cards hopefully get me 1 go.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 11:55 AM
A-2-4-K has 40 cuts for improvement = 40/46 = 87.0% and with three low cards and a high card should peg well playing offense or defense. With the broken five I'll lead the 4 although the A cut now means we can play a Safe strategy as we have enough to go out.
mfetchCT425
1399 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Monday 12:26 PM
Had this scenario in a real game and held it this way. A led the 4, opponent paired me. I played the K, opponent paired me! And then pegged out with last card. It shows that you can have a well laid out plan, and still not succeed. But that’s just one of the things that make this such a great and intriguing game.
JQT says: One of the most difficult aspects of improving our game is sticking with a known or proven strategy even after it occasionally fails us. Dealer does have the pegging advantage by playing last, and if Dealer holds the same four card ranks as we do, that Dealer could BLANK US as Pone and score on EVERY CARD WE PLAY! You were not dealt any duplicate cards, or PAIRS, and that serves to both help and possibly hurt us as Pone. Believing you played it correctly, even after losing, is important, because you don't want to "thrash" and switch strategies just because you lost. If you play out 100 random Dealer Hands against what you were dealt here, I think you should expect to win MOST of the time, but not ALL of the time. Don't switch your strategies UNLESS you can prove that another hand wins a greater percentage of the time. Maybe even Keep (A 2 4 6) with NO points could prove to be good, or Keep (A 4 6 K), which I did find intriguing as well. I think this is an excellent puzzle, and while I am confident that you did everything correctly here, I (we) may be wrong. We'll have to see if HalscribCLX will "rain on the parade" or not! ; - )
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Monday 12:30 PM
I originally looked at A-2-6-7, but I felt that it was far too easy for the dealer to trap me into a run, due to the fact that I am rather restricted after I play my first card.

The king allows me to vary the hand count without exposing the value of my hand. It may also allow me use the A-2 for late play pegging to limit the dealers "go". Since the A is cut I don't need the pegging points so I will play defense and lead the 4.
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Monday 2:07 PM
JQT has this hold down pat. Once seeing the starter card, knowing that RAS has six points, it's play SAFE. Lead the four as retaining the Ace with an Ace on the deck seems to be the safest option. Advance the count with the K escape card. Pegs are not needed, so play off. If dealer played an Ace on my 4 lead? would take the 15-2 with the King. Other than that would not bother with pegs. Dealer needs five pegs and dealer average is 3.5; so likely needs me to cooperate in order to peg five holes. Great time to be uncooperative.
jitwit
27 votes

Joined: October 2019
 
 
 
Monday 9:34 PM
Decided to keep the A-4-6 combination in the hope of pegging 31 off the 11.
jitwit says: Another consideration was the abundance of cards that give us another 2 points after the cut