October 9, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by scottcrib
93-84*  ?
56%
13%
9%
6%
4%
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 195

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

Rosemarie44
1374 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 3:04 AM
At 93, I believe we need to get as close as possible for next hand as dealer. I am risking the 7-8.
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JQT
2611 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Wednesday 3:18 AM
Rosemarie has a better alarm clock, and so she beat me to the punch! I snoozed, and I loozed!!

Opponent as Dealer at Hole 84 presents us with almost ZERO threat, since even Two Dozen Points probably won't be sufficient.

Thus, IF we can get well beyond Hole 96 by the end of This Deal, we ought to prevail here quite easily.

Only Keep (2 3 J J) ensures this, so the Toss (7 8) discard almost does not matter.

If we absolutely needed to defend, I would try Toss (7 J) I suppose. But due to our relative position, that's not necessary here.

Lead a Jack.
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dec
4651 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 3:31 AM
In all probability 7-8 is the correct discard.. however I had a similiar choice in a close game beginning on third street .. it ended up being a twenty point crib... never caught up after that. So seeing the nine would be my only non cut I will protect my ad coming up on my next deal and attempt to minimize their crib. Three lead. defense. dec
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Andy (muesli64)
1599 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Wednesday 3:46 AM
As dec above. Don't want to open the floodgates.
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mrob2199
165 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Wednesday 4:07 AM
The benchmark I use in making positional decisions like this one is this-am I more likely to deal myself bad from 97 or 98 if I break up the hand-or is the opponent more likely to go out from 84 if I throw him the dangerous 7-8-in my mind the more likely scenario would be dealing myself short next hand,so I’m keeping the 6 point hand with excellent potential to improve,and risking the 7-8 discard-we need a lot of bad things to happen for that to kill us-the cut being a middle,as well as the opponent throwing middles as well-let’s play offense here and get down as far as possible
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james500
2285 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 4:57 AM
The Jack of Spades has a 11/46 chance of scoring "nobs", the Jack of Hearts only a 10/46 chance.

Is a 1/46 chance of a point for me, worth the chance of giving up five points to my opponent in a crib flush?
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mfetchCT425
412 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Wednesday 5:12 AM
With opponent back at hole 84, like being aggressive here and retain points to get as far down 4th street as we can for next deal. I think we need to play to win here vs being overly conservative. Will lead the 3 and take pegs where I can. After the favorable cut, we should be in great position as dealer in the next hand.
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Ras2829
3516 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 5:27 AM
You're often r4warded for making a good decision in cribbage. Here we pickup up 12 points with the trey on the deck which seems to be of little value to the 7-8 toss. Is there a time that I would discard the 8-J? Sure - if opponent were at my elbow at hole 94, would do so. Here dealer is 11 holes why of 4th street CPZ (95-99). Although I don't really like the 7-8 to opponent crib, prefer the 8 with K or J, whether you toss the 7 or 8 with a X-pointer is within .1 (tenth) of a point. And in the case of 8-Q (2,146) and 7-Q (2,187) they're separated by only .57 (hundredths) with the 7-Q having the lower average. Have tossed both 7-Q and 8-Q over 2,000 times with those results. That JQT has a habit of bringing up things which are inexplicable. Certainly would not agonize excessively over the difference between 8-X and 7-X to opponent crib. After seeing the starter card and knowing that I will have the deal at a minimum of hole 105, will play offensively, lead the Jack. If the cut had been a 7 or 8, would have played SAFE and led the trey.
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usacoder
71 votes

Joined: August 2019

Wednesday 5:29 AM
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Gougie00
4052 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Wednesday 5:32 AM
A defensive hedge.
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Jazzselke
1319 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Wednesday 5:54 AM
Wow, a lot of early-rise commenters this morning! If the dealer even 3 or 4 more points farther down, would consider the 8Q.
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horus93
546 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Wednesday 6:24 AM
Goldilocks for me today.
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lindy
402 votes

Joined: August 2014

   
Wednesday 7:55 AM
It now looks like I'm attempting to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I'll try to keep opponent short and fake the flush for an extra peg. Will lead the 2.
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wasa
1379 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Wednesday 8:21 AM
He who fights and runs away, lives to fight another day. The 7-8 is too dangerous here in my opinion. A 20 or 24 point crib means good chance I lose this game when opponent counts first.
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JRCeagle78
740 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Wednesday 8:49 AM
That sound you just heard was a loud sigh of relief. I did not consider my position strong enough going into the next deal so I took a chance going for the most points. I'll lead the 3 and take any pegging points offered and I just might start the deal at hole 107 or better.

The doctor always states, "Start the day off with a good breakfast and you can't go wrong"
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cribbagepogo
2896 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 9:49 AM
7/8 is deadly. Dealer could have had 24 in the crib with right throw from him/her. Prefer to lose a little to trying to make up that much. A lot of cribbage to be played yet.
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RubyTuesday
224 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Wednesday 9:57 AM
I don’t like throwing 7 8 into my opponent’s crib but feel it’s the right choice with this hand and score.
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dgergens
399 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Wednesday 11:20 AM
I suffer from 7/8 PTSD. Every time I've decided to 'risk' it, I've been obliterated. For sure 9/10 times. I just can't do it.
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joekayak
896 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Wednesday 12:13 PM
Go down swinging. Need to get to hole 99 at least.
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scottcrib
62 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Wednesday 12:23 PM
In the real game, a 7 was cut and I was glad I had kept the 7-8.
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Coeurdelion
3976 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 3:05 PM
Do we keep 6pts and risk the 7-8 or throw an unsuited 2-J, 3-J, 7-J or 8-J:

2-3-J-J: 6pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.63) = -1½pts

3-7-8-JH: 2pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = -2¾pts

2-7-8-JS: 2pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.86) = -2¾pts

2-3-8-J: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.68) = -2½pts

2-3-7-J: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.59) = -2½pts

Potential:

2-3-J-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, JJ = 20 cuts. Plus 21 hearts and spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 21/46 = 0.46pt.

3-7-8-JH: Improves with 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, JJ = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 5/6pts with 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 18 cuts. Plus 10 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

2-7-8-JS: Improves with 222, 333, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, JJ = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 5/6pts with 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, JJ = 20 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

2-3-8-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 777, 888 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 5/6/7/8pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, JJ = 20 cuts.

2-3-7-JH: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 5/6/8pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, JJ = 20 cuts.

Position:

We're nearly at positional hole 96pts and Pone is well behind so I'll play Defense to maintain my lead.

Pegging:

All these except 7-8-J-J will peg well but with a magic eleven I think 3-7-8-JH will peg best.

Summary:

2-3-J-J starts with 1/1¼pts more and has an extra ½pt for his nob with two Js. It also 20 cuts for 9-12pts. So I'll risk the 7-8.
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HalscribCLX
3753 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 3:18 PM
At 93*-84 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total____W2 %____W3 %
2-3-J-J___8.89+(-3.17)+(-7.47)=(-1.75)___36.7____80.7
2-3-7-JH__4.87+(-2.61)+(-4.39)=(-2.13)___18.3____74.1
2-3-8-JS__4.89+(-2.67)+(-4.44)=(-2.22)___17.8____72.7
3-7-8-JH__4.13+(-2.74)+(-4.67)=(-3.28)___14.3____68.5
2-7-8-JS__4.15+(-2.78)+(-4.70)=(-3.33)___13.9____66.8
3-7-J-J___3.80+(-2.80)+(-4.63)=(-3.63)___11.6____63.6
2-7-J-J___3.80+(-2.83)+(-4.61)=(-3.64)___12.3____64.7
3-8-J-J___3.80+(-2.87)+(-4.57)=(-3.64)___10.8____63.5
2-8-J-J___3.80+(-2.98)+(-4.67)=(-3.85)___11.4____62.9
2-3-7-8___5.39+(-2.65)+(-6.71)=(-3.97)___23.8____75.5
7-8-J-J___6.02+(-3.00)+(-7.30)=(-4.28)___21.9____71.8

Offense______L2 %____L3 %
2-3-J-J______10.4_____8.9
2-3-7-JH______3.8____12.7
2-3-8-JS______4.0____13.6
3-7-8-JH______4.1____16.5
2-7-8-JS______4.2____17.5
3-7-J-J_______4.0____19.6
2-7-J-J_______4.0____18.9
3-8-J-J_______4.1____19.8
2-8-J-J_______4.1____20.1
2-3-7-8_______8.4____13.0
7-8-J-J_______8.5____16.1

2-3-J-J is best for expected averages by 0.38pt and very much best for Win %s and although it's not lowest for Loss %s I'll select 7-8 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Defense:

Lead____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3_____________________(-2.54)
J_____________________(-2.66)
2_____________________(-2.66)
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