October 9, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by scottcrib
93-84*  ?
56%
13%
9%
6%
4%
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 195
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:04 AM
At 93, I believe we need to get as close as possible for next hand as dealer. I am risking the 7-8.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:18 AM
Rosemarie has a better alarm clock, and so she beat me to the punch! I snoozed, and I loozed!!

Opponent as Dealer at Hole 84 presents us with almost ZERO threat, since even Two Dozen Points probably won't be sufficient.

Thus, IF we can get well beyond Hole 96 by the end of This Deal, we ought to prevail here quite easily.

Only Keep (2 3 J J) ensures this, so the Toss (7 8) discard almost does not matter.

If we absolutely needed to defend, I would try Toss (7 J) I suppose. But due to our relative position, that's not necessary here.

Lead a Jack.
Rosemarie44 says: I cannot lie. I went to bed early. No competition on my part, here.
dec
6351 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:31 AM
In all probability 7-8 is the correct discard.. however I had a similiar choice in a close game beginning on third street .. it ended up being a twenty point crib... never caught up after that. So seeing the nine would be my only non cut I will protect my ad coming up on my next deal and attempt to minimize their crib. Three lead. defense. dec
JQT says: For the Love of Cribbage, I believe it was none other than RAS who once convinced me that Toss (7 X) can oftentimes be more effective defensively than Toss (8 X), and if it is indeed so, and if it was indeed him, I'll allow him to elucidate (unless he prefers not to 'whistle-blow' away such important company secrets ; - ). Anyway, I do prefer offense today, so I'm inclined to remain silent on the issue.
JQT says: At this position, we can almost certainly endure a Dealer having a Dozen Points in the Crib. Sure, a Twenty- or Twenty-Four-Point Crib is a distinct possibility after we Toss (7 8), but a vastly-more-likely possibility here is that if we do NOT Keep (2 3 J J), we shall become Next Dealer and be "short" of position! Both of these are game-losing or existential threats, but the latter is far more likely to ruin this game for us than the former, and thus the unequivocal Toss (7 8). Remember, we're not just performing Toss (7 8) here willy-nilly: we're doing it at a very calculated and specific RELATIVE BOARD POSITION of (93-84*).
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:46 AM
As dec above. Don't want to open the floodgates.
mrob2199
1428 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:07 AM
The benchmark I use in making positional decisions like this one is this-am I more likely to deal myself bad from 97 or 98 if I break up the hand-or is the opponent more likely to go out from 84 if I throw him the dangerous 7-8-in my mind the more likely scenario would be dealing myself short next hand,so I’m keeping the 6 point hand with excellent potential to improve,and risking the 7-8 discard-we need a lot of bad things to happen for that to kill us-the cut being a middle,as well as the opponent throwing middles as well-let’s play offense here and get down as far as possible
glmccuskey says: I agree 100 percent Rob.
JQT says: Yes, it's all about assessing the risk/reward ratio, and you explained it very well. Thinking simply in terms of "worst case" after Toss (7 8) is a fatalistic approach, as contrasted with what you have described, which is a realistic approach. We should always remember that ANY TWO CARDS we discard into our Opponents' Cribs in Cribbage can *always* become, worst case, Fourteen Points. But worst-case very seldom happens, and if we play as if it is going to occur, it will cost us far more games lost as opposed to games won.
james500
3916 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:57 AM
The Jack of Spades has a 11/46 chance of scoring "nobs", the Jack of Hearts only a 10/46 chance.

Is a 1/46 chance of a point for me, worth the chance of giving up five points to my opponent in a crib flush?
Ras2829 says: Hi james500: You are very astute in observing that the JS has better chance to score a point than does the JH. This is built into HalscribCLX program and the added value of a Jack is always factored against the remaining cards in a suit. That means the "conventional wisdom" regarding a .25 value for the Jack is never correct.
james500 says: Hi, hope you're well, thanks for the kind words. I reckon that a 1/46 chance of 1 point equates to a 1/230 chance of 5 points. So, as long as crib flushes are less common than 1/230, I'm right to discard JH rather than JSp with the 8. Do you happen to have any stats to confirm/deny whether they are?
Jazzselke says: Ras has quoted crib flushes about 1/580. DeLynn's book says 1/700.
james500 says: Hi Dan, thanks for taking the time to answer my query. Hope your day was a pleasant one.
Ras2829 says: Hi Jazzselke: Kept track for crib flushes for 15 years in a large cribbage club. They occur once in each 79-81 games played. That's 1/728 deals. Have quoted other figures at different times in the compilation of the empirical data. Those always ranged from 718-780. That breaks down to the suited cards having about .04 hundredths added value over similar unsuited cards.
JQT says: I believe the best mathematical attempt at this question arrived at about one Crib Flush every 740 Deals. That's like, if we look at years, every-other-birthday! Which means that essentially, it's safe enough to ignore.
mfetchCT425
1394 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:12 AM
With opponent back at hole 84, like being aggressive here and retain points to get as far down 4th street as we can for next deal. I think we need to play to win here vs being overly conservative. Will lead the 3 and take pegs where I can. After the favorable cut, we should be in great position as dealer in the next hand.
Ras2829
5145 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:27 AM
You're often r4warded for making a good decision in cribbage. Here we pickup up 12 points with the trey on the deck which seems to be of little value to the 7-8 toss. Is there a time that I would discard the 8-J? Sure - if opponent were at my elbow at hole 94, would do so. Here dealer is 11 holes why of 4th street CPZ (95-99). Although I don't really like the 7-8 to opponent crib, prefer the 8 with K or J, whether you toss the 7 or 8 with a X-pointer is within .1 (tenth) of a point. And in the case of 8-Q (2,146) and 7-Q (2,187) they're separated by only .57 (hundredths) with the 7-Q having the lower average. Have tossed both 7-Q and 8-Q over 2,000 times with those results. That JQT has a habit of bringing up things which are inexplicable. Certainly would not agonize excessively over the difference between 8-X and 7-X to opponent crib. After seeing the starter card and knowing that I will have the deal at a minimum of hole 105, will play offensively, lead the Jack. If the cut had been a 7 or 8, would have played SAFE and led the trey.
Jazzselke says: Certainly understand the 8Q figure, possibility of a 5- card run. Do not fathom 7Q as the 7 is considered a key connector.
Jazzselke says: Scratch that second sentence.
JQT says: Being inexplicable may not only be my best asset, it may be my *only* asset! Where did I assimilate this nonsense regarding a Toss (7 X) defensive tidbit? Perhaps I learned it from the Halscrib Robot itself. Perish the thought that I could simply be wrong!
JQT says: Maybe I was thinking of when splitting up a Deuce and a Trey, comparing say Toss (2 X) with Toss (3 X), or some such. Inexplicable, and hard to explain as well!
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:29 AM
Gougie00
5723 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:32 AM
A defensive hedge.
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:54 AM
Wow, a lot of early-rise commenters this morning! If the dealer even 3 or 4 more points farther down, would consider the 8Q.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:24 AM
Goldilocks for me today.
lindy
515 votes

Joined: August 2014
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:55 AM
It now looks like I'm attempting to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I'll try to keep opponent short and fake the flush for an extra peg. Will lead the 2.
wasa
3012 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Wednesday 8:21 AM
He who fights and runs away, lives to fight another day. The 7-8 is too dangerous here in my opinion. A 20 or 24 point crib means good chance I lose this game when opponent counts first.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 8:49 AM
That sound you just heard was a loud sigh of relief. I did not consider my position strong enough going into the next deal so I took a chance going for the most points. I'll lead the 3 and take any pegging points offered and I just might start the deal at hole 107 or better.

The doctor always states, "Start the day off with a good breakfast and you can't go wrong"
Rosemarie44 says: I like to say "Start the day off with daily cribbage hand and you can't go wrong."
cribbagepogo
3249 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Wednesday 9:49 AM
7/8 is deadly. Dealer could have had 24 in the crib with right throw from him/her. Prefer to lose a little to trying to make up that much. A lot of cribbage to be played yet.
scottcrib says: I'm glad I'm not the only one that decided this was the prudent hand to keep.
RubyTuesday
908 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Wednesday 9:57 AM
I don’t like throwing 7 8 into my opponent’s crib but feel it’s the right choice with this hand and score.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Wednesday 11:20 AM
I suffer from 7/8 PTSD. Every time I've decided to 'risk' it, I've been obliterated. For sure 9/10 times. I just can't do it.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 12:13 PM
Go down swinging. Need to get to hole 99 at least.
scottcrib
1629 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Wednesday 12:23 PM
In the real game, a 7 was cut and I was glad I had kept the 7-8.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:05 PM
Do we keep 6pts and risk the 7-8 or throw an unsuited 2-J, 3-J, 7-J or 8-J:

2-3-J-J: 6pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.63) = -1½pts

3-7-8-JH: 2pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = -2¾pts

2-7-8-JS: 2pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.86) = -2¾pts

2-3-8-J: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.68) = -2½pts

2-3-7-J: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.59) = -2½pts

Potential:

2-3-J-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, JJ = 20 cuts. Plus 21 hearts and spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 21/46 = 0.46pt.

3-7-8-JH: Improves with 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, JJ = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 5/6pts with 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 18 cuts. Plus 10 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

2-7-8-JS: Improves with 222, 333, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, JJ = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 5/6pts with 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, JJ = 20 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

2-3-8-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 777, 888 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 5/6/7/8pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, JJ = 20 cuts.

2-3-7-JH: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 5/6/8pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, JJ = 20 cuts.

Position:

We're nearly at positional hole 96pts and Pone is well behind so I'll play Defense to maintain my lead.

Pegging:

All these except 7-8-J-J will peg well but with a magic eleven I think 3-7-8-JH will peg best.

Summary:

2-3-J-J starts with 1/1¼pts more and has an extra ½pt for his nob with two Js. It also 20 cuts for 9-12pts. So I'll risk the 7-8.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:18 PM
At 93*-84 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total____W2 %____W3 %
2-3-J-J___8.89+(-3.17)+(-7.47)=(-1.75)___36.7____80.7
2-3-7-JH__4.87+(-2.61)+(-4.39)=(-2.13)___18.3____74.1
2-3-8-JS__4.89+(-2.67)+(-4.44)=(-2.22)___17.8____72.7
3-7-8-JH__4.13+(-2.74)+(-4.67)=(-3.28)___14.3____68.5
2-7-8-JS__4.15+(-2.78)+(-4.70)=(-3.33)___13.9____66.8
3-7-J-J___3.80+(-2.80)+(-4.63)=(-3.63)___11.6____63.6
2-7-J-J___3.80+(-2.83)+(-4.61)=(-3.64)___12.3____64.7
3-8-J-J___3.80+(-2.87)+(-4.57)=(-3.64)___10.8____63.5
2-8-J-J___3.80+(-2.98)+(-4.67)=(-3.85)___11.4____62.9
2-3-7-8___5.39+(-2.65)+(-6.71)=(-3.97)___23.8____75.5
7-8-J-J___6.02+(-3.00)+(-7.30)=(-4.28)___21.9____71.8

Offense______L2 %____L3 %
2-3-J-J______10.4_____8.9
2-3-7-JH______3.8____12.7
2-3-8-JS______4.0____13.6
3-7-8-JH______4.1____16.5
2-7-8-JS______4.2____17.5
3-7-J-J_______4.0____19.6
2-7-J-J_______4.0____18.9
3-8-J-J_______4.1____19.8
2-8-J-J_______4.1____20.1
2-3-7-8_______8.4____13.0
7-8-J-J_______8.5____16.1

2-3-J-J is best for expected averages by 0.38pt and very much best for Win %s and although it's not lowest for Loss %s I'll select 7-8 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Defense:

Lead____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3_____________________(-2.54)
J_____________________(-2.66)
2_____________________(-2.66)