October 7, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by scottcrib
96*-106  ?
66%
27%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 202
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:26 AM
Let's see: Would I rather...

Would I rather have an Eight-Point Hand with Toss (A 6) in my Crib, or would I rather have a Nine-Point Crib with Toss (A 4) in my Crib?

It's not even close: Hold the FLUSH for MORE in the HAND and Throw the two-card (A 4) Five Combination for MORE in the Crib!
JQT says: Second sentence, "Nine-Point Crib" should of course read: "Nine-Point Hand"
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:27 AM
If it was 2-3-3-4 involved I might thnk different here I will start with eleven total. Now I will peg defensively here. dec
RubyTuesday
908 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Monday 3:30 AM
It’s got to be the flush in hand, and A 4 in my crib.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Monday 3:31 AM
It pays to Flush and 2 cards that total a "five" in my crib today.
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Monday 3:55 AM
This should be 100%. Hopefully not in trouble on the pegging. Congrats to Mfetchl for winning the 114 person New Hampshire tournament yesterday!
dec says: Congrats also. Great player.Great competitor and person. dec
zeke76 says: I’ll add my congrats as well.
mfetchCT425
1395 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Monday 4:48 AM
Flush all the way here. Every cut helps this hand and like the suited A-4 to our crib vs holding the double run and tossing A-6. Decent cut for us. Peg defensively. Take safe pegs. Thanks Dan and Dan for the kind words.
JRCeagle78 says: I am sorry that I could not make the New Hampshire tournament due to a previous commitment but I offer you my sincere congratulations.
cwed says: Congrats, Mike, on your win at the NHO! Looking forward to seeing you in North Conway.
mfetchCT425 says: Thanks very much Jack, David, zeke76! Appreciate the kind words.
Ras2829 says: Hi mfetchCT425: Always pleased to hear of your success on the crib board. Your commitment to learning the finer points of the game and the positive manner in which you relate to others should be rewarded often. Terrific!
mfetchCT425 says: Thanks very much Ras! Yours kind words mean a lot to me.
zeke76
1389 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Monday 4:53 AM
It’s definitely flush.
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Monday 4:58 AM
Can anybody can imagine a time and place where the option of A-4-4-6 (2-3) becomes viable?
JQT says: I might Toss (2 3) at a score of say (104*-112) in order to peg more defensively, as today's "tightly-knit" FLUSH might get us into trouble during such an endgame while trying to avoid a RUN during the pegging.
Jazzselke says: Absolutely agree
james500 says: Thank you both for taking the time to reply to my query, and also for being polite enough not to mention the second, out of place, "can".
Ras2829 says: Hi james500: You'll probably note without my reminder. HalscribCLX shows the numbers for retaining A-4-4-6 with 2-3 discard.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Monday 7:00 AM
It seems we're running out of room to catch up. We get to count first next hand and that will be our only chance to take it home. So I was tempted to keep the 2,3,4,4 and hope for a double double. I have no idea what the 'odds' are, but I felt the chances at a good crib + 9 was slightly better than a low potential crib + chance at double double.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Monday 7:00 AM
With the guarantee peg for dealer, this hand will get us to hole 111. A half decent crib will put us in a prime position as pone.

Play defense. Make the pone earn his points.
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Monday 7:00 AM
Baaa. Looks like I am sheep today.
wasa
3013 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Monday 7:02 AM
It pays to flush.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Monday 8:15 AM
No sleep lost here.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Monday 11:31 AM
Unanimity among the panelists. Will the computer disagree? I think not. peg DEF is another reason to keep 2-3-4-6. Not quite as likely to get caught in pegging.
mrob2199
1429 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Monday 11:33 AM
Looks like a pretty cut and dried decision today-great job winning the tournament Mike-thanks for beating the guy that eliminated me! (Paul Batterson)-see you in Malden
mfetchCT425 says: Thanks a lot Rob! Was a good day of cards. Our 3 man team did well but wish I could have won my last qualifying game. Would have put us in 1st vs 3rd. I had a nice lead on 2nd street too, and then cards fell apart. See you in Malden.
cribbagepogo
3249 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 12:44 PM
Leave Paul Batterson alone he don't do nothing. heh heh
scottcrib
1630 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Monday 2:25 PM
I'm glad my discard matches. This was a game I ultimately lost due to not such a nice cut and an excellent hand by pone. I thought about the 2344, but A6 in the crib is not near as pretty as A4. I believe I have a few more hands being posted in teh next few days.
james500 says: Hi Scott, hope all's well. Nice hand today, I'm eager to see what else you have in store.
Ras2829
5146 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Monday 2:36 PM
Most of what needs to be said has been stated. Am just an echo: play 9 points with the flush, and discard an assured two points to crib. The Queen of clubs could be of considerable help in crib and boosts the hand to 12 nice points. Since I know that have a guaranteed peg as dealer, 12 points I hand, minimum of two in crib, need to minimize n/d movement down the boards. It's 50/50 on limiting n/d to 9 holes (hand score and pegs). Would need six pegs as dealer upcoming to win. If reaches hole 117-118, good chance to chalk up the win as next dealer by pegging out.
Ras2829 says: Pegs would be of benefit to us if we use caution in the play of these four cards. Play off the lead although would play the 6 on a 9 lead. You often get a free two pegs when doing so as pairing the six makes the count 21. Many players will avoid those pegs when advancing the count to 21.
JQT says: The FLUSH is the unanimous choice among those who posted comments today, but of those who voted, greater than 25% of these still chose the Double RUN, and so this puzzle should help to educate some players out there. But what makes this an interesting submission might actually be a good "Pegging of the Day" puzzle if some such site were to exist! For example, how should we handle a 4-Card Lead by Pone? Our goal is to 'give up' absolutely ZERO points while pegging here, so this would obviously become an interesting challenge, no matter what four cards we held (although if one could choose, I suppose it would be difficult to improve upon having Four Aces today!). In predicaments such as these, it's easy to see why that mysterious 5-Card Lead by Pone in such 'Elusive Endgames' as these can often confuse and/or stymie a Dealer! And welcome back to warm, dry land, RAS.
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Nice to be back in the fold after a great fishing trip. I often play a deuce on a four lead with good results. Would do that here. Think there ae a number of reasons that folks often look over the flush. Some seasoned players say: "don't fall in love with a flush!" Most players would benefit more by advice that said: "fall in love with a flush!" Many see the potential of 16 points with the double run and don't get that a flush such as this will score 16 with any of the cuts that would give sixteen points with the double run. And this flush scores 15 points with the cut of a six spot. Retaining a flush often results in a better scoring discard for own crib and a lower scoring discard for opponent. In addition here the six can be used for an escape card although 8 or 9 would be better for such.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 3:29 PM
The flush starts with 9pts with a good A-4 discard so I think must be favorite. But I'll look at A-4-4-6 (2-3) and 2-3-4-4 (A-6):

2-3-4C-6: 9pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 14¼pts

A-4-4-6: 4pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 10¾pts

2-3-4-4: 8pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.85) = 11¾pts

Potential:

2-3-4C-6: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 12/13/15/16pts with 222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 7777, 9999 = 24 cuts.

A-4-4-6: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 44, 5555, 666 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

2-3-4-4: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 12/16/17pts with 222, 333, 44, 5555, 6666, 8888, 9999 = 24 cuts.

Position:

We're in position and Pone is short so I'll peg defensively.

Pegging:

All the hands should peg well.

Summary:

The flush starts with 2½pts more than the double-run and 3½pts more than A-4-4-6, has guaranteed improvement and 24 cuts for 12-16pts. It also will peg well so I'll throw the suited A-4.

HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:31 PM
At 96*-106 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib___Total__W1 %____W2 %
2-3-4C-6__12.61+(-2.15)+5.30=15.76____11.4____60.9
2-3-4-4___11.87+(-2.22)+3.66=13.31_____6.4____50.0
A-4-4-6____7.65+(-2.22)+6.45=11.88_____3.2____38.6

Defense_____L1 %____L2 %
2-3-4C-6____19.2____33.1
2-3-4-4_____18.4____45.2
A-4-4-6_____20.5____57.5

2-3-4C-6 is best for expected averages by 2.45pts and is very much best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select the AD-4D to discard.

After the QC cut I'll play Defense to the lead.