October 7, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by scottcrib
96*-106  ?
66%
27%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 202

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

JQT
2611 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Monday 3:26 AM
Let's see: Would I rather...

Would I rather have an Eight-Point Hand with Toss (A 6) in my Crib, or would I rather have a Nine-Point Crib with Toss (A 4) in my Crib?

It's not even close: Hold the FLUSH for MORE in the HAND and Throw the two-card (A 4) Five Combination for MORE in the Crib!
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dec
4651 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 3:27 AM
If it was 2-3-3-4 involved I might thnk different here I will start with eleven total. Now I will peg defensively here. dec
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RubyTuesday
224 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Monday 3:30 AM
It’s got to be the flush in hand, and A 4 in my crib.
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Rosemarie44
1374 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 3:31 AM
It pays to Flush and 2 cards that total a "five" in my crib today.
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Jazzselke
1319 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Monday 3:55 AM
This should be 100%. Hopefully not in trouble on the pegging. Congrats to Mfetchl for winning the 114 person New Hampshire tournament yesterday!
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mfetchCT425
412 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Monday 4:48 AM
Flush all the way here. Every cut helps this hand and like the suited A-4 to our crib vs holding the double run and tossing A-6. Decent cut for us. Peg defensively. Take safe pegs. Thanks Dan and Dan for the kind words.
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zeke76
384 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Monday 4:53 AM
It’s definitely flush.
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james500
2285 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 4:58 AM
Can anybody can imagine a time and place where the option of A-4-4-6 (2-3) becomes viable?
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dgergens
399 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Monday 7:00 AM
It seems we're running out of room to catch up. We get to count first next hand and that will be our only chance to take it home. So I was tempted to keep the 2,3,4,4 and hope for a double double. I have no idea what the 'odds' are, but I felt the chances at a good crib + 9 was slightly better than a low potential crib + chance at double double.
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JRCeagle78
740 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Monday 7:00 AM
With the guarantee peg for dealer, this hand will get us to hole 111. A half decent crib will put us in a prime position as pone.

Play defense. Make the pone earn his points.
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Gougie00
4052 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 7:00 AM
Baaa. Looks like I am sheep today.
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wasa
1379 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Monday 7:02 AM
It pays to flush.
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Andy (muesli64)
1599 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Monday 8:15 AM
No sleep lost here.
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joekayak
896 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Monday 11:31 AM
Unanimity among the panelists. Will the computer disagree? I think not. peg DEF is another reason to keep 2-3-4-6. Not quite as likely to get caught in pegging.
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mrob2199
165 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Monday 11:33 AM
Looks like a pretty cut and dried decision today-great job winning the tournament Mike-thanks for beating the guy that eliminated me! (Paul Batterson)-see you in Malden
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cribbagepogo
2896 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 12:44 PM
Leave Paul Batterson alone he don't do nothing. heh heh
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scottcrib
62 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Monday 2:25 PM
I'm glad my discard matches. This was a game I ultimately lost due to not such a nice cut and an excellent hand by pone. I thought about the 2344, but A6 in the crib is not near as pretty as A4. I believe I have a few more hands being posted in teh next few days.
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Ras2829
3516 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 2:36 PM
Most of what needs to be said has been stated. Am just an echo: play 9 points with the flush, and discard an assured two points to crib. The Queen of clubs could be of considerable help in crib and boosts the hand to 12 nice points. Since I know that have a guaranteed peg as dealer, 12 points I hand, minimum of two in crib, need to minimize n/d movement down the boards. It's 50/50 on limiting n/d to 9 holes (hand score and pegs). Would need six pegs as dealer upcoming to win. If reaches hole 117-118, good chance to chalk up the win as next dealer by pegging out.
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Coeurdelion
3976 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 3:29 PM
The flush starts with 9pts with a good A-4 discard so I think must be favorite. But I'll look at A-4-4-6 (2-3) and 2-3-4-4 (A-6):

2-3-4C-6: 9pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 14¼pts

A-4-4-6: 4pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 10¾pts

2-3-4-4: 8pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.85) = 11¾pts

Potential:

2-3-4C-6: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 12/13/15/16pts with 222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 7777, 9999 = 24 cuts.

A-4-4-6: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 44, 5555, 666 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

2-3-4-4: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 44, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 12/16/17pts with 222, 333, 44, 5555, 6666, 8888, 9999 = 24 cuts.

Position:

We're in position and Pone is short so I'll peg defensively.

Pegging:

All the hands should peg well.

Summary:

The flush starts with 2½pts more than the double-run and 3½pts more than A-4-4-6, has guaranteed improvement and 24 cuts for 12-16pts. It also will peg well so I'll throw the suited A-4.

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HalscribCLX
3753 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 3:31 PM
At 96*-106 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib___Total__W1 %____W2 %
2-3-4C-6__12.61+(-2.15)+5.30=15.76____11.4____60.9
2-3-4-4___11.87+(-2.22)+3.66=13.31_____6.4____50.0
A-4-4-6____7.65+(-2.22)+6.45=11.88_____3.2____38.6

Defense_____L1 %____L2 %
2-3-4C-6____19.2____33.1
2-3-4-4_____18.4____45.2
A-4-4-6_____20.5____57.5

2-3-4C-6 is best for expected averages by 2.45pts and is very much best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select the AD-4D to discard.

After the QC cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
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