October 6, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
27*-34  ?
53%
40%
3%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 152

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

JQT
2611 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Sunday 3:12 AM
All things otherwise equal, I believe that stashing "fruit" (a PEAR, a.k.a. a PAIR) into our Crib is generally a low-percentage proposition, as compared to stowing away "touching" or even "gapped" cards such as Toss (6 7) or Toss (J K), respectively.

While a good case could be made for Toss (J K) today, I think the added pegging it's bound to produce might be entirely offset by the added strength of the Toss (6 7) discard.

Thus it's Toss (6 7) for me, perhaps as a matter of "style of play" rather than any expected superiority in points. After all, Toss (6 7) does have the highest Expect Average (especially across the board) of any discard that starts off without any inherent points or without a 5 Card or cards that add up to five.

Incidentally, I've written thousands of words in the past on this site about the "No Inherent Points Discard Cousins" known as Toss (6 7), Toss (3 4), and Toss (J Q).
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Rosemarie44
1374 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 3:37 AM
These 4 cards just go together. Toss 6-7 (higher value than J-K) to our crib. Also this hand has a higher maximum of 11 points vs. 9 points. What's not to like???
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dec
4651 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 3:52 AM
I will go with the two start this way. If I see middle cards by opponent I will not like that. dec
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james500
2285 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 4:43 AM
I've read John's thousands of words on intrinsic value, and the Cribbagepro blog by Aaron Harsh. Has to be 6-7 then.

http://blog.cribbagepro.net/2012/10/discarding.html?m=1
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Gougie00
4052 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 5:12 AM
The middle cards just in case?
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Andy (muesli64)
1599 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Sunday 7:18 AM
Looks like a training exercise by Ras. But he taught us to throw out the two middle cards years ago!!
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joekayak
896 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Sunday 9:27 AM
On the poll, Throw middle just beats out throw high. Throwing the pair seems well out of favor. All the panelists throw middle.
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Goatman
924 votes

Joined: March 2017

   
Sunday 12:11 PM
High Ras...sorry to have missed you at club Thursday. My saving grace was knocking Dan Carr from his grand slam and $25 richer. You’re a great ambassador for cribbage...more than that you’re a good friend. I’ll see my next trip back from Kentucky.
God bless.
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Coeurdelion
3976 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 3:32 PM
It looks like its either 6-7-J-K (3-3), 3-3-J-K (6-7) or 3-3-6-7 (J-K):

6-7-J-K: 0pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.94) = 5¾pts

3-3-J-K: 2pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.98) = 7pts

3-3-6-7: 2pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.96) = 6pts

Potential:

6-7-J-K: Improves with 2222, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999, JJJ, QQQQ, KKK = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 3/5/7pts with 5555, 8888, QQQQ = 12 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

3-3-J-K: Improves with 2222, 33, 5555, 9999, JJJ, QQQQ, KKK = 24 cuts = 22/46 = 52.2% up to 5/6/10pts with 2222, 33, 5555, QQQQ = 14 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

3-3-6-7: Improves with 2222, 33, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/7/8/9pts with 2222, 33, 5555, 666, 8888, 9999 = 21 cuts.

Position:

It looks as if after two deals opponent has gained quite a bit an d is on target to reach the 44pt positional hole. I'll play Defense to try to slow them down.

Pegging:

I think 3-3-6-7 will peg best.

Summary:

3-3-J-K has the best starting value by 1pt but 3-3-6-7 starts with 6pts and has 21 cuts for 6-9pts. I also think it will peg best. So I'll throw the J-K.
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HalscribCLX
3753 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 3:33 PM
At 27*-34 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W7 %____W8 %
3-3-J-K___4.15+(-2.24)+5.07=6.98____29.8____32.8
3-3-6-7___4.52+(-2.33)+3.94=6.13____27.8____30.0
6-7-J-K___2.41+(-2.26)+5.89=6.04____28.1____30.2

Defense______L7 %____L8 %
3-3-J-K______46.8____49.2
3-3-6-7______49.4____53.3
6-7-J-K______49.3____53.0

3-3-J-K is best for expected averages by 0.85pt and and is appreciably best for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select 6-7 to discard.

After the QS cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
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Ras2829
3516 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Sunday 4:22 PM
Submitted this puzzle as it depends on the choice of strategy as to which is the better keep (3-3-j-K or 3-3-6-7). With opponent at hole 34 needing 9 points to reach 2nd Street CPZ (43-47), RAS' choice is def., def., def., and play off the lead although would play the King on a five lead for 15-2 and would pair a trey if led. If you chose offense with primary concern as to moving down the board as dealer, holding 3-3-6-7 with J-K discard would be the superior choice by about 1/3 point. Generally (about 80%) the choice (cards retained and discard) would be the same regardless of strategy. Important enough to recognize the times when a different set of cards will add points offensively and be flexible enough to accommodate differing strategy needs. Might submit this again with both players at hole 24. As dealer, I would then hold 3-3-6-7 since moving down the board would be my major concern tempered by non-dealer need for 19 points to reach that 2nd street CPZ (43-47).
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