Saturday 3:09 AM

20 cuts for a dozen.

   

Saturday 3:23 AM

If scores were diferent I might entertain Q-4 but 15 face cards to hard to ignore. dec

   

Saturday 3:51 AM

My first choice is to hold this hand and toss 8-Q. Twenty six cuts increase the value from 8 to 12 points is hard to ignore. Wonder how tossing A-8 which has a higher value will fair in Hal's line up?

   

Saturday 4:50 AM

X(10)-8(18)-X(28)-A(29-go-A(30/2)-(31/8) would be most welcome.
A-8 is probably the better choice though.

   

Saturday 6:44 AM

Keep best possible chance for 12 in hand. 9 or any face cut.

   

Saturday 6:59 AM

Great puzzle. If we hold AAA4 we throw balking cards to our own crib. If we keep AAA8 tremendous pegging is possible, but 4Q would be dead with the aces out of circulation. And if we hold AA4Q, we have the best throw of the 3 scenarios to our crib, but the potential of our hand is diminished. So IMO we should keep the best hand possibility.

   

Saturday 7:12 AM

Where's the face card? Arghgh!

Still a chance to parlay the AAA.

   

Saturday 9:59 AM

Need help. Best chance to get it. Oh well, maybe a 9 in the crib. I still have first count next deal.

   

Saturday 1:14 PM

A-A-A-4 (8-Q) or A-A-4-Q (A-8):

A-A-A-4: 6pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.80) = +9¾pts

A-A-4-Q: 6pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.19) = +9¼pts

Potential:

A-A-A-4: Improves with A, 444, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 12pts with A, 9999 + 15xXs = 20 cuts.

A-A-4-Q: Improves with A, 3333, 444, 5555, 9999 + 15xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 10/12pts with A, 444 + 15xXs = 19 cuts.

Position:

Pone needs 13pts to get out so I'll peg Defensively to restrict heir scoring as much as possible.

Pegging:

Pegging Defensively I think both will peg well but perhaps A-A-4-Q with the Q out card slightly better.

Summary:

A-A-A-4 starts with ½pt more and although it has 5 fewer cuts for improvement it has 20 cuts for 12pts compared to 19 cuts for 10/12pts. The A-8 discard will also have some negative delta as we hold two more As. I think A-A-4-Q may peg somewhat better but even so I favor A-A-A-4 and I'll throw 8-Q.

   

Saturday 1:49 PM

At 99*-108 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W1 %___W2 %
A-A-A-4___8.87+(-1.96)+3.26=10.17____3.7____43.0
A-A-4-Q*__8.48+(-2.33)+3.60= 9.75____1.8____39.7

Defense_______L1 %___L2 %
A-A-A-4_______21.9___53.1
A-A-4-Q*______19.3___57.4

* suited A-8

A-A-A-4 is better for expected averages by 0.42pt and is appreciably better for Win %s and slightly lower for Loss %s. So I'll select 8-Q to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll play Optimally to the lead (cautious offense).

   

Saturday 5:51 PM

Not that I like breaking up AAA4 but keep the same amount and get to throw A8 into crib better than 8 Q.

   

Saturday 9:50 PM

Just too much potential hand value with A-A-A-4 as that remaining Ace and all cards 9-K score 12 points. So it's the 8-Q to own crib. BTW it's that way about half the time - dealer drops "garbage" to own crib. Thinking def. when picking up cards, when discarding, once seeing the non-helpful starter card (2 points known in crib), will shift gears to an optimal pegging strategy.

   

Saturday 11:59 PM

had to try for it