October 5, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by james500
99*-108  ?
66%
18%
7%
2%
2%
1%
0%
Total votes: 150

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

JQT
2843 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Saturday 3:09 AM
20 cuts for a dozen.
dec
4886 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Saturday 3:23 AM
If scores were diferent I might entertain Q-4 but 15 face cards to hard to ignore. dec
Rosemarie44
1598 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Saturday 3:51 AM
My first choice is to hold this hand and toss 8-Q. Twenty six cuts increase the value from 8 to 12 points is hard to ignore. Wonder how tossing A-8 which has a higher value will fair in Hal's line up?
james500
2506 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Saturday 4:50 AM
X(10)-8(18)-X(28)-A(29-go-A(30/2)-(31/8) would be most welcome.
A-8 is probably the better choice though.
mfetchCT425
552 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Saturday 6:44 AM
Keep best possible chance for 12 in hand. 9 or any face cut.
Jazzselke
1481 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Saturday 6:59 AM
Great puzzle. If we hold AAA4 we throw balking cards to our own crib. If we keep AAA8 tremendous pegging is possible, but 4Q would be dead with the aces out of circulation. And if we hold AA4Q, we have the best throw of the 3 scenarios to our crib, but the potential of our hand is diminished. So IMO we should keep the best hand possibility.
Gougie00
4284 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Saturday 7:12 AM
Where's the face card? Arghgh!

Still a chance to parlay the AAA.
joekayak
1090 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Saturday 9:59 AM
Need help. Best chance to get it. Oh well, maybe a 9 in the crib. I still have first count next deal.
Coeurdelion
4204 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Saturday 1:14 PM
A-A-A-4 (8-Q) or A-A-4-Q (A-8):

A-A-A-4: 6pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.80) = +9¾pts

A-A-4-Q: 6pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.19) = +9¼pts

Potential:

A-A-A-4: Improves with A, 444, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 12pts with A, 9999 + 15xXs = 20 cuts.

A-A-4-Q: Improves with A, 3333, 444, 5555, 9999 + 15xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 10/12pts with A, 444 + 15xXs = 19 cuts.

Position:

Pone needs 13pts to get out so I'll peg Defensively to restrict heir scoring as much as possible.

Pegging:

Pegging Defensively I think both will peg well but perhaps A-A-4-Q with the Q out card slightly better.

Summary:

A-A-A-4 starts with ½pt more and although it has 5 fewer cuts for improvement it has 20 cuts for 12pts compared to 19 cuts for 10/12pts. The A-8 discard will also have some negative delta as we hold two more As. I think A-A-4-Q may peg somewhat better but even so I favor A-A-A-4 and I'll throw 8-Q.
HalscribCLX
3973 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Saturday 1:49 PM
At 99*-108 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W1 %___W2 %
A-A-A-4___8.87+(-1.96)+3.26=10.17____3.7____43.0
A-A-4-Q*__8.48+(-2.33)+3.60= 9.75____1.8____39.7

Defense_______L1 %___L2 %
A-A-A-4_______21.9___53.1
A-A-4-Q*______19.3___57.4

* suited A-8

A-A-A-4 is better for expected averages by 0.42pt and is appreciably better for Win %s and slightly lower for Loss %s. So I'll select 8-Q to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll play Optimally to the lead (cautious offense).
cribbagepogo
2977 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Saturday 5:51 PM
Not that I like breaking up AAA4 but keep the same amount and get to throw A8 into crib better than 8 Q.
Ras2829
3741 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Saturday 9:50 PM
Just too much potential hand value with A-A-A-4 as that remaining Ace and all cards 9-K score 12 points. So it's the 8-Q to own crib. BTW it's that way about half the time - dealer drops "garbage" to own crib. Thinking def. when picking up cards, when discarding, once seeing the non-helpful starter card (2 points known in crib), will shift gears to an optimal pegging strategy.
dgergens
590 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Saturday 11:59 PM
had to try for it