Thursday 3:20 AM

Going with the Flush today. Lead the 3 card.

   

Thursday 3:40 AM

Going with the lead card today three of hearts. keep enough to go out. End games the toughest play is deciding on a lead card if opponent is agressive with a three response... dec

   

Thursday 4:00 AM

We want a card that will win us the game on the first play if dealer garners points off it-the pair of threes gives us that safe lead here-we also want to keep enough points to go out as well-it will be tough enough to stop dealer from pegging out anyways without worrying about pegging a few points ourselves too-the Queen is a little better than the jack here-we want an out card to lift the count over 15 and the Queen is less likely to be caught in a run than a jack

   

Thursday 4:07 AM

I’ve kept a variety of cards and will win if we get as far as counting our hands.

   

Thursday 4:47 AM

I went with safe 3 lead logic and also with enough to go out. Kept the queen over the jack as I think it’s slightly less likely to be paired.

   

Thursday 5:24 AM

3 lead. 3-5-3 eleven may be useful, but so close to the finish line, I doubt Dealer would keep four X cards in hand.

   

Thursday 5:24 AM

Got to keep enough to go out. Lead the 3 and we may have no choice but to play offense. The dealer's phaser is set on kill.

   

Thursday 5:45 AM

I don't know the answer to this puzzle.

Therefore, I can only go over the analysis as best as possible and remember what I did on that day five years ago when this original game occurred. I like to do most of my positional thinking *before* I even see my cards, so let's do that here as well. We are Pone at (117-117*). Let's proceed step-by-step for any newer players:

Needing Four Points as Pone, it's not unreasonable to believe we might peg Four Holes, and yet against a Dealer who *also* needs just Four Points, it does seem entirely unrealistic to think we might out-peg the Dealer.

That's because we not only need to peg MORE, but we need to reach that amount SOONER; and those are two subtly different things that do NOT work in favor for us as Pone. Attempting to win this by pegging out is therefore possible, but exceedingly unlikely.

You got to do what you got to do, and if the score were (119-119*) instead, then by all means, we would be in a pegging race. And since on average, Pone does peg about 2.1 Points, we might have some small hope tied at Hole 119, although we would still need to get there FIRST.

But at a score of (117-117*), we know that since an "average" Dealer pegs about 3.5 Points, we might be much better situated to attempt to prevail here via a defensive stand during the pegging.

How we might do this is another story altogether. First of all, we almost have to assume that we might not peg at all, and thus it would be ideal to retain Four Points in order to "cover" the distance. Okay, let's now glance at our six cards, and then, let's look at some options.

First of all, having been dealt one Jack, we know that the odds are suddenly reduced to approximately 3 DIV 46 equals 0.065 or about a 7% chance that we might Cut a Jack. This would almost force us into a pegging showdown, and a nearly hopeless one at that.

Our thinking above might suggest five or six immediate ideas: The FLUSH, or Toss (3 5) suited, two variants of Toss (A X), Toss (A 3), Toss (3 3), and Toss (J Q). That last idea seemingly contains just Two Points, but it's crucial to note that *ANY* Cut adds at least Two More Points to that hand!

In an all-out pegging battle, I would like Toss (J Q), but I am worried it may not be defensive enough. Perhaps (3 3 3 ?) would allow us "safety in numbers" enough to risk holding our lowest-ranking bunch, but that Ace and that 5 Card are both too close to the Treys, and so I would worry about giving up a RUN. And if it were a RUN we could *parry* with a RUN of Four to WIN, then maybe it would be a great option, but it only appears to be a good option at best.

I don't like Toss (3 3) as the Trey is such a fantastic Lead Card: Even if it gets PAIRED, we can play PAIRS Royal and WIN! We *MUST* retain at least one of those Treys, and we probably should retain them BOTH! Sadly, this rules out Toss (A 3) as well, but I suppose we should be happy to be ruling things out at this juncture!

We seem to be left with the FLUSH, or with Toss (A X). Let's pick apart the latter just for kicks: We don't require Nobs to add to our Point Total, so throwing the Jack seems to be preferred, as the Queen is a bit safer pegging card. If we Keep (3 3 5 Q) and lead a Trey, we're left holding (3 5 Q), which has excellent separation to Play Off.

There may yet be some who contend that holding onto the Jack might *still* be better than retaining the Queen, and this came up recently in another similar Endgame Puzzle. It gets very complicated, but it does seem that the Queen should be the safer of the two cards.

But if we *wanted* to peg, and some might like to "hedge" and be ready to Play On as well as Play Off, then the Jack may be the way to go. I'll opt for the safer Queen.

The FLUSH is often the SOLUTION to many of our problems in Cribbage, but if we retain the FLUSH today, by definition, away go one half of our PAIR of Treys! The Trey is still an excellent Lead Card, but now we are probably LOST if Dealer should PAIR the Trey Lead! And we would then be stuck with the "touching" Jack and Queen, and a "Lone Ace," which are BOTH PEGGING LIABILITIES!

Therefore, our logic has led us down the "Primrose Path" today of Keep (3 3 5 Q) and Toss (A J). Wasn't that both fun and easy?!

Now let's see if the Cut changes anything.

After the 4 Card Cut, we now prepare to defend as best we can, although if the Dealer does inflict an early wound and scores upon our first card played, we might have to make a huge decision about whether to then Play On. Can we avoid this?

As we suspected, only our Trey Lead avoids any immediate trouble. We WIN if it gets PAIRED, so we're completely immune from the Dealer grabbing an early lead! And after any other response, we Play Off defensively as best we can. And perhaps the brightest fact is that, WIN or LOSE, our pegging should almost 'play itself' today.

   

Thursday 6:00 AM

Holding the Queen does several things. It gives us a better escape card, avoids to some degree the chance to give up a run or pair, and it decreases our chances of losing just a bit when compared to the Jack. Lead the 3 of hearts, if paired the game is over. If dealer has a trey, most will pair the trey needing four pegs to get out. If dealer needed only three, not so likely to pair the opening lead. What are our chances of winning as non-dealer in this position? Think they are less than 40% - will defer to Hal on those numbers. Dealer can only win if pegging four holes. N/d does not have to peg to win. Our best chance to survive to count first seems to be this hold.

   

Thursday 6:28 AM

As others have stated so elegantly above, like this hold. Q is our escape card if needed. Lead the 3h as it is not only the safest lead here with us having two of them, but if paired we triple for the win. If dealer responds with a face, I would play the second 3 vs the usual dumping of the 5. Want to note that the A-3-3-5 hold is helped by every cut and would also guarantee us enough to go out, but I didn’t like the fact that cards are all bunched together with no out card. Very nice puzzle.

   

Thursday 6:59 AM

The most important part of this hand is what we lead. The 3 provides us with the security we need. I have deduced from years of being caught short within the last 5 holes of a game that the Jack and the 5 are more likely to get us into trouble. This hand does not give us the luxury of tossing the 5 over the board because we still have to keep enough points to win. These cards also can provide a defensive strategy.

   

Thursday 7:58 AM

So why can't I get a cut like this when I need twelve points to go out?!

   

Thursday 8:00 AM

I like the mix of high and low cards to stay out of trouble. Tripling a pair with the other keep would be nice but seems like too distant a possibility.

   

Thursday 8:19 AM

The dealer will be compelled to pair the 3 if she has it, so I believe this hold is clear-cut. And if it's not paired, we have 2 safe cards.

   

Thursday 1:07 PM

My hold had to do with the lead. Leading from a pair of 3's with a 5 to dump if I can or a Q to take the count over 15. Holding 4 different in the flush has some appeal. I just like the relative safe 3 lead from two of them. Nice puzzle.

   

Thursday 3:50 PM

I went for 3-3-5-J(A-Q).

Everyone has spoken above.

I would lead a 3 and play defense - except if Opp. pairs my 3.

   

Thursday 4:19 PM

We need to stop Dealer pegging out before we score our first show. I'd also like to keep 4pts just in case we don't score anything. So that means it's between the flush, 3-3-5-X, 3-5-J-Q or A-5-J-Q. As the flush will be hard to read I think I'll throw the 3C-5.

   

Thursday 4:23 PM

At 117*-117 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the Dealer Peg Out % and Pone Peg Out %s are:

Defense_____Dealer Peg Out %______Pone Peg Out %
A-3-5-J_________33.9___________________7.5
A-5-J-Q_________34.1___________________3.5
A-3H-J-Q________34.2___________________1.5
A-3-5-Q_________34.3___________________7.5
3-5-J-Q_________35.0___________________4.3
3-3-5-J_________35.7___________________3.7
3-3-5-Q_________35.7___________________3.7
A-3-3-J_________40.6___________________4.1
A-3-3-Q_________40.6___________________4.1
3-3-J-Q_________41.9___________________0.4
A-3-3-5_________57.0___________________0.4

A-3-5-J is best for chances of pegging out but doesn't score 4pts therefore I'll keep the next best A-5-J-Q. So I'll select 3-3 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll lead the A and play Defense:

Lead_________Dealer's Pegging Pts.______Loss %
J___________________(-1.79)_____________14.2
Q___________________(-1.83)_____________14.7
5___________________(-1.85)_____________24.5
A___________________(-1.90)_____________13.6

Although the J lead is lowest for Dealer's Pegging Points the A lead has lowest chance of losing in the pegging.