September 11, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by james500
88-95*  ?
25%
23%
19%
15%
10%
3%
1%
1%
Total votes: 190
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:17 AM
Give up the safer toss of 3-7 and hold 4 points for a maximum of 14 (39 cuts). I looked at the Flush but didn't want to give dealer suited 3-4.
dec
6326 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:21 AM
Not all flushes are created equal especially with giving up 3-4 there. I actually do not think I particulary want a five cut here. Would prefer eighter a 4 6 or a ten card for a cut. Lead a four something like 2-1 or 2-2 on the pegging is my pegging goal in mind. dec
zeke76
1366 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:08 AM
Went this way but really unsure
scottcrib
1607 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:22 AM
Too many cuts miss me if I don't keep cards that add up to 5. Besides, I'm keeping the maximum points.
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:42 AM
I think 3-6 should be a wee bit safer than 3-7, although it does mean I can't keep the 4-A-6 eleven.

Lead the red 4.
mfetchCT425
1382 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:29 AM
Like this hold slightly better than A-4-4-7. Keeps our gap cards intact for chance for 14 with a 5 cut. 3-card magic 11 should give this hold a slight advantage in pegging vs the A-4-4-7. Lead the 4d.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:46 AM
Relative position makes the decision for me. Dealer is at hole 95 with deck needing to be in 4th Street CPZ 95-99) and RAS needs 8 points to deal. Not a thing over which to agonize. Holding four points, A-4-4-6 is a fine choice. Will lead the 4D and attempt to play off dealer response. Would I triple for six if dealer pairs my four> Yes as would believe that doing so at 95 would be more indicative of a small hand than dealer holding 4-4. If four lead seemed safe, want to dump that lone Ace on next play. So just how different do 3-7 and 3-6 look as discards to opponent? The 3-6 averages 4.813 (943) 39/91 scores 0-2 34.676%, tallies 3-7 40.832%, weighs in at 16.539% on 8-11 and scores 7.953% at the 12 or beyond range. The 3- 4.848 (1,333) 41/91 scores 0-2 29.857%, 3-7 51.138%, 8-11 14.34%, and reaches 12 and beyond 4.651%. So my strategy choice is def., def., opt. Knowing I have 6 points after the starter card, would like to grab a couple of peg points or will be short to deal at hole 94 (4th Street CPZ 95-99).
Ras2829 says: Guess should have included the discard profile for the A-6 since retaining 3-4-4-7 is the favored choice at the time of this posting. The A-6 4.967 (789) 46/91 scores 0-2 29.388%, 3-7 44.356%, 8-11 21.055%, and 12 or more 5.201%. The A-6 by comparison scores fewer cribs of 0-2 and about 30-40% more at the 8-11 than do the 3-6 and 3-7.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:47 AM
End of first sentence should read …."needs 7 points to deal."
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019

 
 
 
Wednesday 7:21 AM
Another good challenge from James. And it's early in the morning. No coffee yet. I'll do my best under these bad conditions :-)
88-95*
Like yesterday, dealer is where he wants to be(close enough to the 96 target) while we are behind it by 8 pts. Opp. averages 16 pts as dealer. So we can expect him to be at 95+16 = 111 next hand, when he starts as pone. Just 10 pts from the finish line. He should average that as pone - ie we expect him to win next hand. Unless some luck comes our way. Good play may help, too :-)

We need to make as many pts as we can this hand, without helping Opp. too much in his crib. Would be nice to make 33 pts this hand(we would win this hand if we did) but that isn't in the cards. Nor is anything close to that. Our best hope is to make 14 or 16 pts. Would get us to around 102-104.

So we have to hope Opp. gets a bust hand here. That's the luck part. And we try for 14 or 16. That's the good play part.

There are many possible discards. The best candidates appear to be:

A. A-4-4-6(3-7)
B. A-4-4-7(3-6)
C. 4-4-6-7(A-3)
D. A-4-6-7d(3s-4s) Flush

All of the above start with 4 pts. Crib value to Opp:
A. (3-7) 4.8
B. (3-6) 4.8
C . (A-3) 5.0
D. (3-4) 5.7

As we don't want to help Opp.'s crib, let's rule out C and D right here. Besides, A and B will have many more cuts helping(Sixteen X values), since they have a 5-combo(A-4-4). C has no such combo, and the flush has A-4 but A and B have A-4-4. The X cards will help B much more than they help the flush.

Helping cuts to hand:
A. A-4-4-6 X(16), A(3). 4(2), 5(4), 6(4), 7(4), 8(4), 9(4) = 41/46
B. A-4-4-7 X(16), A(3). 3(3), 4(2), 6(4), 7(4), 8(4) = 36/46

Helping cuts to Opp. crib:
A. (3-7) 2(4), 3(3), 5(4), 7(3), 8(4) = 18 ways The 5,7,8 help our hand.
B. (3-6) 2(4), 3(3), 6(3), 9(4) = 14 ways The 3, 6 help our hand.

A is better in the cuts department.
B might peg a little better than A(it has 4-7 where A doesn't), but both should peg fairly well. We want to grab as many relatively safe pegging pts as we can.

Potential
A has a max in hand = 7.6, an expected average hand - crib = 2.7, and a max of hand-crib = 12.
B has a max in hand = 6.8, an expected average hand - crib = 2.2, and a max of hand-crib = 12.

The Max in hand value is most important, since we're trying to get as many pts as we can. A has better potential.

Sooooo - I choose A. That's A-4-4-6(3-7)

Cautious offense for pegging. Lead 4d.

Now I can go get some coffee and wake up. Hope there aren't too many errors in this post. :-)
JCM says: Having posted, it seems Ras and I agree. That's a hopeful sign. Except he wasn't so long-winded. Eventually I hope to learn to write shorter posts :-)
JQT says: You earned a Starbucks after all that effort (obligatory financial disclosure: I have a rather large percentage position invested in Starbucks over the past decade or longer, and yet I normally drink Dunkin' Coffee in the Morning ... isn't that simply despicable?)
JQT
4135 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 7:35 AM
Discards like Toss (3 4) and Toss (6 7) could help the Dealer WIN here, so we should look for something safer such as Toss (A 6) or Toss (3 7).

I'm torn between keeping of (3 4 4) combo together or the (4 4 6) combo, and while both look good for growth, the (3 4 4) does have both ends open.

Therefore let's Toss (A 6) and lead a 4 Card.
horus93
1271 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Wednesday 7:38 AM
This is a marginal position, +2/-1. Generally I try to discard "optimally" here. Holding extremely good cards I might be able to afford to be a little defensive, holding extremely bad cards I might have to take a bit of a risk and discard aggressively to stay in the game.

We are *not* necessarily behind where we want to be. We're two points beyond where we need to be to win by average scoring as long as we can keep opponent a few points under his averages.

But it's only a 2 point surplus so we can't be really defensive. I'd lead the 4 and triple a pair.
JQT says: Excellent Positional Summary ... Convincing Even!
Gougie00
5701 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 8:07 AM
another clunker. Perhaps this way? Alot of ways to go, but none seem so hot.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019

 
 
 
Wednesday 1:31 PM
Thanks to Ras and Horus. You clarified something for me.

If you're pone, be cognizant of how many points you need to be in winning shape as dealer in the following hand.

In today's hand, given we have 88 so far, we need 8 to achieve 96 as dealer. Good shape. Even 7 is probably good enough.

Given we already have 6 pts after the cut, a couple of pegging pts will get us there.

Here, though, we have to hope Opp. scores below par or he will still win on 1st count next hand. (The luck part - though we can help here by being cautious in our pegging.)
horus93 says: It's important too to remember that "average" scoring assumes you're not being defensive in the pegging and that you will fall short of the averages about 50% of the time. Some people act like dealing from 96 means you're in good shape but really you should play aggressively from there as long as the pone isn't dangerously far down the board
horus93 says: In other words it's nice to have first count at 111 but it's even better to have first count at 116!
JCM says: Hi Horus. Thanks for the affirmation. Now I have many questions, but I'll confine myself to just one, for now. Let's go back to the start of the game 0-0*. The way I understand it, both Opp. and I are striving for 18+ pts - from there it's a 26 pt cycle to the next target(44). The difference is that Opp. has 2 hands to reach 18, where I have only 1 hand to reach 18. So if I have potential to reach 18 - say, A-A-4-6-7-8 I should donate a (A-4) to Opp. crib to keep A-6-7-8 - as it has the potential, with pegging, to reach 18 this hand. Is that correct? OTOH, if I have a bust hand, like A-4-6-8-J-K, I should consider a defensive discard like K-8, keeping A-4-6-J for myself. Since I have no hope of reaching 18 this hand, I should slow Opp. down instead. Is that correct? Thanks in advance!
JCM says: In the 2nd bust hand example, maybe holding 8-6-4-A(J-K) could be a better discard. But either way, we're primarily trying to slow dealer down now, rather than speed ourselves up. Correct?
horus93 says: Hi JCM. At 0-0* our deficit equals the opponent's surplus. It's like if the score were 103-104* except that the demands of position are really diluted way back on 1st street. As pone you can improve your position by scoring a big hand and moving down the board OR by holding the other person back. So if you just went for it as pone and the score next deal was 20*-22 it was probably worth it. OTOH it's worth being defensive if you have awful cards. If the score next deal is 6*-7 you've knocked your opponent so far off par that you're ahead. There are *two* sets of positional holes. You know the ones for dealer but pone's are 8, 34, 60, 86 and 111. With your first example I would not make such an aggressive discard because a-6-7-8 misses on many cuts and a-4 might just push the other guy further out of reach. I'd agree on A-4-6-8-J-K though.
horus93 says: But another player even one who saw position the same way as Schell and me might not agree on how to play those two hands! It's so early in the game maybe a-4 and 6-8 are best
JCM says: If you wouldn't discard (A-4) on the first hand, what would you discard? -- (A-6-7-8) is one of my most favourite holds.
horus93 says: I would toss 4-7 from such a hand so early. Averages favor toss a-4 but not by much and numbers are being pulled high by a relatively small number of very high-scoring cuts. But really I didn't think that hard, I might have gone the other way really.
cribbagepogo
3245 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Wednesday 2:48 PM
Best if cut comes.
Coeurdelion
5573 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:09 PM
I think it's between A-4-4-6 (3-7), A-4D-6-7 (3-4S) and 3-4-4-7 (A-6):

A-4-4-6: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.01) = -1pt

A-4D-6-7: 4pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.96) = -1¾pts

3-4-4-7: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.91) = -¾pt

Potential:

A-4-4-6: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 44, 5555, 666 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

A-4D-6-7: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 44, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/10/11pts with 44, 5555, 777, 8888 = 13 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

3-4-4-7: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 44, 5555, 777, 8888 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/10/14pts with AAA, 2222, 44, 5555, 8888 = 17 cuts.

Position:

Dealer is 1pt short of position and we need to keep them as short of 111pts as possible so I'll play Defense for the pegging.

Pegging:

Both with 3-card magic elevens I think A-4-4-6 and the flush will peg better.

Summary:

A-4-4-6 has a starting value ¾pt better than the flush
and although it has fewer cuts for improvement it has 28 cuts for 8-14pts. So I'll throw 3-7.
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:10 PM
At 88-95* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total____W2 %____W3 %
A-4-4-6___7.61+(-2.35)+(-4.68)= 0.58___14.9____34.7
A-4-4-7___6.83+(-2.28)+(-4.39)= 0.16___10.5____32.7
3-4-4-7___6.83+(-2.43)+(-4.46)=(-0.06)__10.6____29.9
4-4-6-7___6.70+(-2.61)+(-4.71)=(-0.62)__10.5____27.9
A-4D-6-7__7.41+(-2.57)+(-5.63)=(-0.79)__12.5____29.5

Defense_______L2 %____L3 %
A-4-4-6_______41.6____57.3
A-4-4-7_______39.1____60.4
3-4-4-7_______41.0____63.3
4-4-6-7_______42.0____65.4
A-4D-6-7______49.7____64.0

A-4-4-6 is best for expected averages by 0.42pt and is appreciably best for Win %s. It is also very slightly lowest for Loss %s so I'll select 3-7 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead___________Net Pegging Pts.
4_____________________0.29
A___________________(-0.36)
6___________________(-1.08)
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:59 PM
Touch and go. I prefer 3 -7 instinctively. Can enjoy a 5 cut!!