September 11, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by james500
88-95*  ?
25%
23%
19%
15%
10%
3%
1%
1%
Total votes: 190

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

Rosemarie44
1345 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 3:17 AM
Give up the safer toss of 3-7 and hold 4 points for a maximum of 14 (39 cuts). I looked at the Flush but didn't want to give dealer suited 3-4.
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dec
4618 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 3:21 AM
Not all flushes are created equal especially with giving up 3-4 there. I actually do not think I particulary want a five cut here. Would prefer eighter a 4 6 or a ten card for a cut. Lead a four something like 2-1 or 2-2 on the pegging is my pegging goal in mind. dec
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zeke76
356 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Wednesday 4:08 AM
Went this way but really unsure
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scottcrib
35 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Wednesday 5:22 AM
Too many cuts miss me if I don't keep cards that add up to 5. Besides, I'm keeping the maximum points.
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james500
2257 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 5:42 AM
I think 3-6 should be a wee bit safer than 3-7, although it does mean I can't keep the 4-A-6 eleven.

Lead the red 4.
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mfetchCT425
391 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Wednesday 6:29 AM
Like this hold slightly better than A-4-4-7. Keeps our gap cards intact for chance for 14 with a 5 cut. 3-card magic 11 should give this hold a slight advantage in pegging vs the A-4-4-7. Lead the 4d.
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Ras2829
3493 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 6:46 AM
Relative position makes the decision for me. Dealer is at hole 95 with deck needing to be in 4th Street CPZ 95-99) and RAS needs 8 points to deal. Not a thing over which to agonize. Holding four points, A-4-4-6 is a fine choice. Will lead the 4D and attempt to play off dealer response. Would I triple for six if dealer pairs my four> Yes as would believe that doing so at 95 would be more indicative of a small hand than dealer holding 4-4. If four lead seemed safe, want to dump that lone Ace on next play. So just how different do 3-7 and 3-6 look as discards to opponent? The 3-6 averages 4.813 (943) 39/91 scores 0-2 34.676%, tallies 3-7 40.832%, weighs in at 16.539% on 8-11 and scores 7.953% at the 12 or beyond range. The 3- 4.848 (1,333) 41/91 scores 0-2 29.857%, 3-7 51.138%, 8-11 14.34%, and reaches 12 and beyond 4.651%. So my strategy choice is def., def., opt. Knowing I have 6 points after the starter card, would like to grab a couple of peg points or will be short to deal at hole 94 (4th Street CPZ 95-99).
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Ras2829
3493 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 6:47 AM
End of first sentence should read …."needs 7 points to deal."
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JCM
226 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Wednesday 7:21 AM
Another good challenge from James. And it's early in the morning. No coffee yet. I'll do my best under these bad conditions :-)
88-95*
Like yesterday, dealer is where he wants to be(close enough to the 96 target) while we are behind it by 8 pts. Opp. averages 16 pts as dealer. So we can expect him to be at 95+16 = 111 next hand, when he starts as pone. Just 10 pts from the finish line. He should average that as pone - ie we expect him to win next hand. Unless some luck comes our way. Good play may help, too :-)

We need to make as many pts as we can this hand, without helping Opp. too much in his crib. Would be nice to make 33 pts this hand(we would win this hand if we did) but that isn't in the cards. Nor is anything close to that. Our best hope is to make 14 or 16 pts. Would get us to around 102-104.

So we have to hope Opp. gets a bust hand here. That's the luck part. And we try for 14 or 16. That's the good play part.

There are many possible discards. The best candidates appear to be:

A. A-4-4-6(3-7)
B. A-4-4-7(3-6)
C. 4-4-6-7(A-3)
D. A-4-6-7d(3s-4s) Flush

All of the above start with 4 pts. Crib value to Opp:
A. (3-7) 4.8
B. (3-6) 4.8
C . (A-3) 5.0
D. (3-4) 5.7

As we don't want to help Opp.'s crib, let's rule out C and D right here. Besides, A and B will have many more cuts helping(Sixteen X values), since they have a 5-combo(A-4-4). C has no such combo, and the flush has A-4 but A and B have A-4-4. The X cards will help B much more than they help the flush.

Helping cuts to hand:
A. A-4-4-6 X(16), A(3). 4(2), 5(4), 6(4), 7(4), 8(4), 9(4) = 41/46
B. A-4-4-7 X(16), A(3). 3(3), 4(2), 6(4), 7(4), 8(4) = 36/46

Helping cuts to Opp. crib:
A. (3-7) 2(4), 3(3), 5(4), 7(3), 8(4) = 18 ways The 5,7,8 help our hand.
B. (3-6) 2(4), 3(3), 6(3), 9(4) = 14 ways The 3, 6 help our hand.

A is better in the cuts department.
B might peg a little better than A(it has 4-7 where A doesn't), but both should peg fairly well. We want to grab as many relatively safe pegging pts as we can.

Potential
A has a max in hand = 7.6, an expected average hand - crib = 2.7, and a max of hand-crib = 12.
B has a max in hand = 6.8, an expected average hand - crib = 2.2, and a max of hand-crib = 12.

The Max in hand value is most important, since we're trying to get as many pts as we can. A has better potential.

Sooooo - I choose A. That's A-4-4-6(3-7)

Cautious offense for pegging. Lead 4d.

Now I can go get some coffee and wake up. Hope there aren't too many errors in this post. :-)
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JQT
2581 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Wednesday 7:35 AM
Discards like Toss (3 4) and Toss (6 7) could help the Dealer WIN here, so we should look for something safer such as Toss (A 6) or Toss (3 7).

I'm torn between keeping of (3 4 4) combo together or the (4 4 6) combo, and while both look good for growth, the (3 4 4) does have both ends open.

Therefore let's Toss (A 6) and lead a 4 Card.
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horus93
522 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Wednesday 7:38 AM
This is a marginal position, +2/-1. Generally I try to discard "optimally" here. Holding extremely good cards I might be able to afford to be a little defensive, holding extremely bad cards I might have to take a bit of a risk and discard aggressively to stay in the game.

We are *not* necessarily behind where we want to be. We're two points beyond where we need to be to win by average scoring as long as we can keep opponent a few points under his averages.

But it's only a 2 point surplus so we can't be really defensive. I'd lead the 4 and triple a pair.
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Gougie00
4024 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Wednesday 8:07 AM
another clunker. Perhaps this way? Alot of ways to go, but none seem so hot.
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JCM
226 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Wednesday 1:31 PM
Thanks to Ras and Horus. You clarified something for me.

If you're pone, be cognizant of how many points you need to be in winning shape as dealer in the following hand.

In today's hand, given we have 88 so far, we need 8 to achieve 96 as dealer. Good shape. Even 7 is probably good enough.

Given we already have 6 pts after the cut, a couple of pegging pts will get us there.

Here, though, we have to hope Opp. scores below par or he will still win on 1st count next hand. (The luck part - though we can help here by being cautious in our pegging.)
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cribbagepogo
2877 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 2:48 PM
Best if cut comes.
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Coeurdelion
3946 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 3:09 PM
I think it's between A-4-4-6 (3-7), A-4D-6-7 (3-4S) and 3-4-4-7 (A-6):

A-4-4-6: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.01) = -1pt

A-4D-6-7: 4pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.96) = -1¾pts

3-4-4-7: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.91) = -¾pt

Potential:

A-4-4-6: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 44, 5555, 666 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

A-4D-6-7: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 44, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/10/11pts with 44, 5555, 777, 8888 = 13 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

3-4-4-7: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 44, 5555, 777, 8888 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/10/14pts with AAA, 2222, 44, 5555, 8888 = 17 cuts.

Position:

Dealer is 1pt short of position and we need to keep them as short of 111pts as possible so I'll play Defense for the pegging.

Pegging:

Both with 3-card magic elevens I think A-4-4-6 and the flush will peg better.

Summary:

A-4-4-6 has a starting value ¾pt better than the flush
and although it has fewer cuts for improvement it has 28 cuts for 8-14pts. So I'll throw 3-7.
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HalscribCLX
3725 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 3:10 PM
At 88-95* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total____W2 %____W3 %
A-4-4-6___7.61+(-2.35)+(-4.68)= 0.58___14.9____34.7
A-4-4-7___6.83+(-2.28)+(-4.39)= 0.16___10.5____32.7
3-4-4-7___6.83+(-2.43)+(-4.46)=(-0.06)__10.6____29.9
4-4-6-7___6.70+(-2.61)+(-4.71)=(-0.62)__10.5____27.9
A-4D-6-7__7.41+(-2.57)+(-5.63)=(-0.79)__12.5____29.5

Defense_______L2 %____L3 %
A-4-4-6_______41.6____57.3
A-4-4-7_______39.1____60.4
3-4-4-7_______41.0____63.3
4-4-6-7_______42.0____65.4
A-4D-6-7______49.7____64.0

A-4-4-6 is best for expected averages by 0.42pt and is appreciably best for Win %s. It is also very slightly lowest for Loss %s so I'll select 3-7 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead___________Net Pegging Pts.
4_____________________0.29
A___________________(-0.36)
6___________________(-1.08)
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Andy (muesli64)
1578 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Wednesday 3:59 PM
Touch and go. I prefer 3 -7 instinctively. Can enjoy a 5 cut!!
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