September 9, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
8*-6  ?
56%
26%
8%
4%
2%
1%
0%
Total votes: 185
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:11 AM
Might as well load up the crib. Asking for a three or another six would be tight. Pegging with the threes might be a detrement. dec
JQT says: Good point about the pegging, as the 3-3 "Sixteen" couplet held as Dealer will occasionally 'cough up' a (31-2) for Pone holding a 5 Card!
RubyTuesday
909 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Monday 3:52 AM
I tried to keep what I hoped would peg best, but in view of dec’s comment above I obviously need a lot more lessons!
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:59 AM
We only get one helper for our Hand (the Cut), while we get three helpers (the Cut, and Pone's Discard) for our Crib.

Therefore, when we have such a weak hand as Dealer, it usually helps most to place our 'energy' into our Crib.

When I do discard Ten Cards from such a hand into my own Crib however, I generally prefer Toss (T Q) over Toss (Q K).
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Monday 4:30 AM
Great reminder from JQT about 3 cards helping our crib and only one card that helps our hand. Expected averages are best tossing the pairs to our crib. Didn't consider 6-T or Q-K.
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Monday 4:51 AM
As I like to say when seeing a hand like this - "Who dealt this mess?"

My 2nd choice would be to put the pair of 3s into the crib. But I want to keep them with the 6.
zeke76
1390 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Monday 4:52 AM
Played sub-optimally apparently
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Monday 5:15 AM
I don't expect Pone to discard a Jack or a 5, but I'll choose 10-Q regardless.

Contrived, but if the pegging gets to:
X(10)-K(20)-5(25)
Should I simply play the 6 for 31/2, or risk playing 3C in the hope of 31/4?
JCM says: When it's not an endgame position, Id try for 31-4.
JCM says: A related question, where I'm unsure of the correct play, although endgame considerations can answer it if we are in the endgame: - The count is 26. I'm holding a pair of Aces and a 2. What should I play? An A hoping to make a pair, plus a go? The 2, hoping then to play the 2 Aces? The risk is Opp may hold an Ace and/or a 2 - making things dangerous for me. There are other variations on this question - many involve taking a pair for 2, without making 31, and dealer makes 31, sometimes for as much as 8(I've been burned that way some times) or making 31-2 but relinquishing the chance for an extra pt. and not making the pair either. (Eg the count is 28. I'm holding A-A-2. Opp. plays an Ace, I pair, Opp plays last A for 8 pts.
JCM says: My last example wasn't really on target. How about Count is 24, and I'm holding 3-3-7. The previous card played was 4. Should I play the 7 for 31-2? Or try a 3 for a pair, risking a run by Opp.?
joekayak says: Are you playing OFF or DEF or OPT? Let position help you make up your mind.
JCM says: Joekayak: Good point. Thanks for reminding me of that.
JQT says: When in Doubt ... Push that Count (higher). When in Trouble ... Attempt that Double (try PAIRING yourself if you NEED the points).
HK343
178 votes

Joined: July 2012
 
 
 
Monday 5:22 AM
The good news is our opponent only moved a total of six holes on their first deal. The bad news is we aren’t on pace to do much better. Need to get lucky, so throwing the pair of 3s to the crib. Gives us three chances to catch a magical deuce, or at least a stray nine from our opponent.
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Monday 5:31 AM
I might learn how to play this clunker.
mfetchCT425
1395 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Monday 5:54 AM
With this bad hand will toss best cards to my crib. Congrats Rob (mrob) for making it to the finals yesterday at the Daniel Webster Open. And the 3-man team comes through nicely! lol.
mrob2199
1429 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Monday 6:55 AM
With this horrible hand we just have to throw all our eggs in the crib basket with the pair of threes-see no reason to keep them in the hand as peggers since you have no magic elevens or run possibilities-hope for a 2,3,5 or jack cut to salvage anything out of this mess of a hand-thank you Mike-was just one card away from playing you in the playoffs-which would have been much fun -but honestly I’m glad your opponent won because I dusted him in 3 straight lollol
mfetchCT425 says: lol. Thanks for getting revenge for me, lol. Would have been great fun playing you in the playoffs Rob. I made some questionable decisions down the stretch in my match that I’d like to have back, but live and learn.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Monday 8:09 AM
Beginning of game. BAD hand. Throw the best cards into the crib. Away go the threes.
cwed
1355 votes

Joined: October 2014
 
 
 
Monday 9:25 AM
This is a terrible hand, so let's see if the crib can grow. Oops, probably not with a 7 cut. On the other hand, maybe I'm playing Rob Medeiros and he threw 5-5 into my crib!
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Monday 10:53 AM
Another example of a hand I would have misplayed before reading this site. The threes have better odds of hitting helpful cards in the crib than the hand. With pone so far off base I'd peg with caution.
zeke76 says: I've noticed an improvement in my game as well from this site, though I have a very long ways to go.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 1:26 PM
Normally with a poor hand I'd throw close cards to my crib but here the only close cards are blocked at one end. So here I think the 3-3 will be best. Therefore I'll keep 6-10-Q-K.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Monday 1:28 PM
At 8*-6 playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
6-10-Q-K__1.57+(-2.30)+5.95=5.22____44.9____46.3
3-3-6-10__3.65+(-2.11)+3.42=4.96____44.1____42.5
3-3-Q-K___3.91+(-2.22)+3.23=4.92____43.7____42.5
3-3-10-Q__3.91+(-2.24)+3.19=4.86____43.6____44.6
3-3-6-K___3.65+(-2.13)+3.32=4.84____44.0____42.7
3-3-10-K__3.65+(-2.22)+3.17=4.60____42.7____45.9

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
6-10-Q-K_____41.0____31.3
3-3-6-10_____46.1____35.6
3-3-Q-K______45.8____35.3
3-3-10-Q_____42.6____33.1
3-3-6-K______45.6____35.3
3-3-10-K_____39.6____31.5

6-10-Q-K is best for expected averages by 0.26pt and is also appreciably best for Win %s. Its also second best for Loss %s so I'll select 3-3 to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll play Safe to the lead.
wasa says: I'd like to debate the "appreciably best for the Win %s". The difference between 44.9%, 44.1%, and 44.0% is probably within the margin of error. There is less than 0.75 points expected between the "worst" toss (6-Q) and the "best" toss (3-3). Mathematically, I claim that all choices are equally bad. Just my CA$0.02 worth!
JQT says: Early in the game, the computer program mostly uses its Expected Averages calculation or Total to determine what to do, and today the best choice is leading by about a quarter of one point. The Win and Loss percentage calculations are mainly utilized by the program during Endgame Scenarios on Fourth Street, and are mostly ignored earlier in the game. Since an average game lasts about ten deals, gaining just that 0.25 points on each deal would propel us forward by another 2.5 points per game, which is a very nice statistical "edge" to have, especially at very high level of play. I agree that studying such hands as this might not be the best place for an intermediate or 'club' player to improve his or her game. But at the highest level of play, it helps to know such subtle nuances of the game.
Ras2829
5147 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Monday 1:59 PM
Position is relative. With opponent at 6 holes, will choose def., def., def., play off the lead although would score 15-2 if a five spot were led. Would also take 15-2 on a 9 lead. JQT said it all early morning today. By dumping the pair to own crib, we gain possibility of three cards to help (opponent discards and the starter card). If threes are retained in dealer they do offer potential offensive pegging opportunity not present with 6-10-Q-K though may be helped only by the starter card. Pairs without an adjacent card or a 15-2 will often have slightly added value in own crib. The mathematic probabilities are skewed by the presence of the 3-3 in dealer hand. If opponent has A-2, 2-4, or other small card combinations, their is an increased chance that n/d will discard. There is also a greater chance of cutting an adjacent card (2 or 4) rather than matching a trey. So it goes for the 3-3.. If the pair had been 7-7 with no adjacent card or 15-2's, same would be true. Don't destroy a hand to do this. This hand was destroyed on the deal; so you can not inflict much in further damage.
Ras2829 says: BTW note HalscribCLX average crib potential for Q-K and 10-Q discards to own crib. Both are low scoring though Q-K has the higher average as that frequent n/d discarded King causes Q-K to score two points very often whereas 10-Q gains nothing from that frequent King toss. Actually my empirical data gives the Q-K an even bigger advantage to own crib. The Q-K average is 3.483 (2,034)and 10-Q weighs in at 3.166 (837).