September 8, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
119*-119  ?
36%
16%
14%
10%
8%
4%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 161
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:20 AM
Tricky Endgame.

The 7-8 duo seems redundant, so I chucked the one of these that leaves me a Magic Eleven with (3 8).

I would like to score *anything* including a RUN, but I do not wish to give up a RUN, so I chucked the Ten (T) as it's a prime connector in our hand today.

The King allows us to Play Off if necessary, and since *any* Jack Cut WINS the game for us 'on the spot,' there should mathematically therefore be a slight fraction of a percent more games played out in which Pone will have a Jack, which I can then hopefully PAIR.

Still, there are many good ideas that differ: Hold all the lowest-ranking cards in order to peg (I disliked this because Pone shall be attempting to do same!) or even hold all the highest-ranking cards in order to force Two Go's (or a Go and Last Card).

But in the end, I felt this "Hybrid Approach" was the best I could come up with (on such short notice ; - ).
JQT says: By "redundant," I mean that if Pone leads either a 7 Card or an 8 Card, either one of our 7-8 duo can WIN the game, therefore if we hold them BOTH, we are having to discard something more unique (another card that Pone is very likely to play; and especially, to lead). I hope some of this "logic" is of use and that it makes sense, especially to the newer players who have seen fewer of these difficult Endgame Scenarios.
JQT says: Any card led by Pone that has a rank greater than Four can be scored upon in two ways, as it may either be PAIRED or FIFTEEN-TWO'ED, thus making each unique card we can hold very important. If for example we hold [3 8 J K] it wins after 19 leads [333 5555 777 888 JJJ KKK]. Yet if we hold [3 7 8 J] it wins after only 16 leads [333 5555 777 888 JJJ]. That's a 3 DIV 45 equals 0.067 or nearly a 7% improvement on just Pone's first card played! However, the [7 8] combo has greater pegging value during the subsequent pegging, and so it's not a simple calculation by any means.
JCM says: Really good point about the 7 and 8. Gonna take that tidbit to the bank. - I don't understand your reasoning about the J, though, except maybe we hope pone holds a J? If were pone, I would probably discard it, seeing it as more of a liability than an asset, as dealer may pair it. - Maybe I need some coffee?
JQT says: A Jack Cut or "His Heels" WINS for us immediately, so in the vast realm of possible hands that Pone *might* be holding in which we must still peg out in order to WIN, this will *bias* the possibility in which a Jack will somehow end up in Pone's hand. Another way to understand this: of the 46 cards that are unaccounted for after we look at our own hand, if one of the three remaining Jacks is Cut, we shall not have to peg. So the number of possible instances in which Pone is dealt a Jack will be ever-so-slightly higher than "normal" simply due to the fact that we never have to peg at all when a Jack is the Cut. Therefore, there exists a very tiny 'bias' in the odds that Pone will have been dealt a Jack.
JQT says: Also, note that I've used 45 (and not 46) as a divisor when evaluating the increased odds of scoring upon Pone's Lead Card. And that's because any time the Pegging begins, we also now know the Cut Card, and thus there are now 45 (and not 46) cards that remain unaccounted for in the deck.
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Sunday 3:20 AM
I don't want a 7 and an 8 as they cover the same leads, but I don't really want multiple X cards here either. I'll try 3-7-T-J.

7 reply to an Ace lead,
10 reply to a 2,
Pair a 3,
7 reply to a 4,
10 reply to a 5 or 6,
7 reply to a 7 or 8,
3 reply to a 9,
Pair a 10 or J,
3 reply to a Q or K.
JQT says: A Deuce Lead would be a logical play if Pone holds something akin to (2 3), or especially if Pone was dealt (2 2 3). After a Deuce Lead, Pone could be therefore be holding a Trey companion, searching for an easy (15-2) after you reply with any Ten Card (or "X"). Therefore, you could maybe reply with the 7 Card: Now, at a Count of Nine, Pone may 'dump' the Trey and make the Count Twelve, since then only another Trey would then be able to score ... and, you've got it! I like all of your remaining ideas.
JCM says: I like that list as well. I would, though, want to reply with 7 to a Q or K. Only an Opp. 7 wins for him.(3 ways) To the 3 reply, a 3 or a 2 wins for him.(7 ways)
james500 says: Hi, thanks to you both for taking the time to respond to my post. To JQT John, I accept the point about "redundancy" if keeping both the 7 and 8, but I do wonder whether keeping the 8 with the 3-7-T instead of the J might have merit? It allows an 8 reply to a led 4 (I have one of the threes), rather the 7 where leading from a pair would be a legitimate tactic for Pone. It also allows me to use the 3-8 eleven on leads of J,Q or K. To JCM John, I can't fault your logic regarding the play of the 7 rather than the 3 on a Queen/King, but for the exact same reason about fewer scoring replies, I figure that if Pone did have a 2 or 3, they would've led it instead of the Q/K, this I feel making the score 13 might be safe.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 3:22 AM
I want to hold some version of X-8-7-3 for its magic 11. I think no need to hold 2 x's. If opponent has a choice of an X to lead, suspect will choose the K. So, I'll throw J-10. Sadly the 8 and the 7 cover exactly the same leads. Would have preferred a different sampling of cards.
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:24 AM
I will give this a go (es) to peg out before opponent. I don't think opponent will lead a ten card here. dec
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 3:25 AM
End games are tough for me, as you all know by now. Guess I am redundant with the 7-8 but it is there. Like the reasoning for hold 3-8-J-K.
Rosemarie44 says: I understand your reasoning for not retaining both the 7-8. Thank you.
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 4:26 AM
Normally the Jack to be the better card among the X-pointers to retain as K would be discarded by n/d. Here with n/d only two points out, that switches to the K for the reasons stated above. True that 7-8 cover the same cards. Don't see that anything is gained in pegging prospects by retaining two cards of X-value. Would you avoid paring the lead for fear of giving up six?
Rosemarie44 says: Forgive if I am not thinking correctly. But if you pair the lead, you will be out. It won't matter if opponent has another card in his hand.
cribbagepogo says: Yep, no six peg here.
JQT says: Rhetorical RAS! He was being hyperbolic (I think he must have caught it along the midway at the state fair! ; - )
Gougie00
5729 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 5:30 AM
One of the each
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Sunday 6:17 AM
Another end-game.

I went with 3-7-8-10(J-K), thinking keep as many different cards as possible.

But JQT pointed out something I missed - only one of the 7-8 is needed. Either will cover both the 7 or 8 lead from Opp. So a hold like 3-7-10-K or 3-8-10-K would be more diversified.

Thanks, John
JCM says: And, maybe the 3-8-10-K is better than 2-7-10-K because of the 3-8 in the former. 2-card 11.
JCM says: And, maybe the 3-8-10-K is better than 2-7-10-K because of the 3-8 in the former. 2-card 11.
JCM says: Typo: "maybe the 3-8-10-K is better than 2-7-10-K" - SHOULD read: "maybe the 3-8-10-K is better than 3-7-10-K "
JCM says: Typo: "maybe the 3-8-10-K is better than 2-7-10-K" - SHOULD read: "maybe the 3-8-10-K is better than 3-7-10-K "
zeke76
1396 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Sunday 6:33 AM
held the J and three low cards. Had a logic but I see that it was faulty.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Sunday 10:49 AM
Interesting to me that all these discarding/pegging strategies, discussed above, will change completely if the score were just 1 pt. further back. Eg if the score were 118*-118, instead of 119*-119, it would now make sense to hold both 7 and 8, and pegging tactics would change, too.
RubyTuesday
913 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Sunday 12:06 PM
I wish I’d realised that I didn’t need to keep the 7 *and* 8, would have held on to the 10 instead of one of them to increase my chances of a quick 2 points.
JQT says: You don't need them both to score on either a 7 Card or an 8 Card Lead, however, they could be valuable cards later on during the pegging, as compared to the alternatives. And so your discard choice might indeed be a good one, it's a very tricky puzzle!
Coeurdelion
5594 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Sunday 2:52 PM
I'll keep the magic eleven and a spread of cards to avoid Pone pegging. So I'll throw 7-J and keep 3-8-10-K.
HalscribCLX
5317 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 2:56 PM
At 119*-119 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the Win %s and Loss % on Pegging are:

Optimal____________Win %____Loss % on Pegging
3-7-8-K____________69.6__________16.4
3-7-8-J____________68.4__________17.2
3-7-8-10___________68.0__________17.6
3-7-J-K____________57.2__________30.4
3-8-10-K___________56.8__________30.0
3-7-10-K___________56.8__________30.0
3-8-J-K____________56.0__________31.2
3-7-10-J___________55.6__________32.0
3-8-10-J___________55.6__________32.8
7-10-J-K___________55.6__________36.8
8-10-J-K___________55.2__________38.0
7-8-10-K___________53.2__________28.4
7-8-J-K____________53.2__________28.4
7-8-10-J___________51.6__________30.4
3-10-J-K___________37.2__________54.8

3-7-8-K has the best chance of Pegging Out and the least chance of losing so I'll select 10-J to discard.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Sunday 3:25 PM
I'm unsure how Halscrib calculates its rankings. They look a little suspect to me. given how Coeurdelion puts 3-8-10-K as best. Can anyone shed any light on why 3-7-8-K should be SO much better? And Coeurdelion SO wrong?
HK343 says: I held 378K, because I thought all of the face cards in my hand were redundant. My thinking is that if I can’t get out on my first card played, I want to be able to run the count over 15 with a face. And I chose to hold the king, thinking the pone was more likely to hold a ten or jack.* So if that scenario happens and I need to run the count high, I only need one of the faces. And at that point I have more flexibility with the 378 all still in my hand. *Whether the pone knows this and chooses to hold a king or queen instead of a ten or jack as a reverse psychology play is a different conversation.
HK343 says: I held 378K, because I thought all of the face cards in my hand were redundant. My thinking is that if I can’t get out on my first card played, I want to be able to run the count over 15 with a face. And I chose to hold the king, thinking the pone was more likely to hold a ten or jack.* So if that scenario happens and I need to run the count high, I only need one of the faces. And at that point I have more flexibility with the 378 all still in my hand. *Whether the pone knows this and chooses to hold a king or queen instead of a ten or jack as a reverse psychology play is a different conversation.
Coeurdelion says: I'm extremely fallible!!
Coeurdelion says: I'm extremely fallible!!
LoneStarPegger
811 votes

Joined: January 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 9:05 PM
Love the discussion.