September 8, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
119*-119  ?
36%
16%
14%
10%
8%
4%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 161

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

JQT
2581 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Sunday 3:20 AM
Tricky Endgame.

The 7-8 duo seems redundant, so I chucked the one of these that leaves me a Magic Eleven with (3 8).

I would like to score *anything* including a RUN, but I do not wish to give up a RUN, so I chucked the Ten (T) as it's a prime connector in our hand today.

The King allows us to Play Off if necessary, and since *any* Jack Cut WINS the game for us 'on the spot,' there should mathematically therefore be a slight fraction of a percent more games played out in which Pone will have a Jack, which I can then hopefully PAIR.

Still, there are many good ideas that differ: Hold all the lowest-ranking cards in order to peg (I disliked this because Pone shall be attempting to do same!) or even hold all the highest-ranking cards in order to force Two Go's (or a Go and Last Card).

But in the end, I felt this "Hybrid Approach" was the best I could come up with (on such short notice ; - ).
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james500
2257 votes

Joined: June 2013

Sunday 3:20 AM
I don't want a 7 and an 8 as they cover the same leads, but I don't really want multiple X cards here either. I'll try 3-7-T-J.

7 reply to an Ace lead,
10 reply to a 2,
Pair a 3,
7 reply to a 4,
10 reply to a 5 or 6,
7 reply to a 7 or 8,
3 reply to a 9,
Pair a 10 or J,
3 reply to a Q or K.
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joekayak
869 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Sunday 3:22 AM
I want to hold some version of X-8-7-3 for its magic 11. I think no need to hold 2 x's. If opponent has a choice of an X to lead, suspect will choose the K. So, I'll throw J-10. Sadly the 8 and the 7 cover exactly the same leads. Would have preferred a different sampling of cards.
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dec
4618 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 3:24 AM
I will give this a go (es) to peg out before opponent. I don't think opponent will lead a ten card here. dec
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Rosemarie44
1345 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 3:25 AM
End games are tough for me, as you all know by now. Guess I am redundant with the 7-8 but it is there. Like the reasoning for hold 3-8-J-K.
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Ras2829
3493 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Sunday 4:26 AM
Normally the Jack to be the better card among the X-pointers to retain as K would be discarded by n/d. Here with n/d only two points out, that switches to the K for the reasons stated above. True that 7-8 cover the same cards. Don't see that anything is gained in pegging prospects by retaining two cards of X-value. Would you avoid paring the lead for fear of giving up six?
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Gougie00
4024 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 5:30 AM
One of the each
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JCM
226 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Sunday 6:17 AM
Another end-game.

I went with 3-7-8-10(J-K), thinking keep as many different cards as possible.

But JQT pointed out something I missed - only one of the 7-8 is needed. Either will cover both the 7 or 8 lead from Opp. So a hold like 3-7-10-K or 3-8-10-K would be more diversified.

Thanks, John
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zeke76
356 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Sunday 6:33 AM
held the J and three low cards. Had a logic but I see that it was faulty.
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JCM
226 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Sunday 10:49 AM
Interesting to me that all these discarding/pegging strategies, discussed above, will change completely if the score were just 1 pt. further back. Eg if the score were 118*-118, instead of 119*-119, it would now make sense to hold both 7 and 8, and pegging tactics would change, too.
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RubyTuesday
199 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Sunday 12:06 PM
I wish I’d realised that I didn’t need to keep the 7 *and* 8, would have held on to the 10 instead of one of them to increase my chances of a quick 2 points.
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Coeurdelion
3946 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 2:52 PM
I'll keep the magic eleven and a spread of cards to avoid Pone pegging. So I'll throw 7-J and keep 3-8-10-K.
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HalscribCLX
3725 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 2:56 PM
At 119*-119 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the Win %s and Loss % on Pegging are:

Optimal____________Win %____Loss % on Pegging
3-7-8-K____________69.6__________16.4
3-7-8-J____________68.4__________17.2
3-7-8-10___________68.0__________17.6
3-7-J-K____________57.2__________30.4
3-8-10-K___________56.8__________30.0
3-7-10-K___________56.8__________30.0
3-8-J-K____________56.0__________31.2
3-7-10-J___________55.6__________32.0
3-8-10-J___________55.6__________32.8
7-10-J-K___________55.6__________36.8
8-10-J-K___________55.2__________38.0
7-8-10-K___________53.2__________28.4
7-8-J-K____________53.2__________28.4
7-8-10-J___________51.6__________30.4
3-10-J-K___________37.2__________54.8

3-7-8-K has the best chance of Pegging Out and the least chance of losing so I'll select 10-J to discard.
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JCM
226 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Sunday 3:25 PM
I'm unsure how Halscrib calculates its rankings. They look a little suspect to me. given how Coeurdelion puts 3-8-10-K as best. Can anyone shed any light on why 3-7-8-K should be SO much better? And Coeurdelion SO wrong?
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LoneStarPegger
699 votes

Joined: January 2008

   
Sunday 9:05 PM
Love the discussion.
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