September 7, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
113-103*  ?
51%
19%
13%
7%
4%
1%
1%
1%
Total votes: 170
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 3:18 AM
I'll have enough points to win after the cut of an AAA,444,5555 plus 14*X cards 24/46.

After cutting a 5, I'll lead the Ace. Would've led the 4 had the cut been unhelpful.
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:21 AM
Twenty four cuts gives you eight or more. Five more diamonds gets you to 118. Four lead. dec
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 3:29 AM
Have to toss that 7-8 to dealer today. Twenty-four cuts, as dec says, increases the hand to eight or more (11 points).
mrob2199
1436 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 3:33 AM
About half the deck puts you out here if you hold the A-4-J-Q,so we have to bite the bullet and hope for a non middle cut-once we get the cut we need,lead the ace and play off everything
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 4:01 AM
Yes 7-8 is the preferred option. Must have set this because it did not work on the day!!
JQT says: Instead of aiming for a Cut that "works" only 50% of the time, I think we can do MUCH BETTER here by biding our time, and throwing DEFENSIVELY. I think we should win this game more like 80% or 90% of the time, but only if we are patient!
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 5:21 AM
Primary concern is to win the game. Good chance to do that needing 8 points with first count. What's the chance that dealer can limit n/d to 7 points? That's 1 in 5. Play BOLD, will lead the Ace to get rid of it, knowing that RAS has 9 points after seeing starter card. Headed for the State Fair today to play cribbage. Same tomorrow.
Rosemarie44 says: Ras, have a wonderful two days playing your favorite game. Winning some money is fun, too.
JQT says: RAS, I see one issue here, and that's why I provided a quite lengthy (below) discussion of the nature of our POSITION *before* looking at our hand today. Those odds of Dealer being able to contain Pone from Eight Holes distance are indeed correct, but once we pick up our Hand here, we know those odds must change, and I believe those odds are going to skew downward a bit for us. This is why I performed a 180-degree about-face and switched to DEFENSE. Our hand is not BAD, per se, but I believe it is a bit below 'par' or average, and thus we're going to fall short of Hole 121 a good percentage of the time. We should do BETTER than 50% from this starting position, so I wanted to heed doing what military strategists call, "Don't run toward your death." Of course, that 5 Card Cut is a Major Embarrassment to my PLAN ... thus far, but I'm still very optimistic of being able to WIN this game. Anyway, enjoy the FAIR and may thee be Fairly Well, My Friend. - j q t -
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 5:38 AM
No need to be timid.

HK343
178 votes

Joined: July 2012
 
 
 
Saturday 6:00 AM
Better than 50/50 to get out on the cut. Going for the win.
zeke76
1397 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Saturday 6:05 AM
Gotta win this hand. Cut I was perfect getting us our last 5 points. Without such a cut it would be offensive pegging.
mfetchCT425
1400 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 6:53 AM
Like being aggressive when close to home. Play to win here. Nice percentage of cuts will put us out or close to out. With the nice cut will dump my lone ace to get rid of it early.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 7:33 AM
Before looking at our Hand, let's study the POSITION: At (113-103*) we need just Eight Holes as Pone in order to WIN, and the Dealer is Eighteen Holes away from doing the same.

If we break down the Twenty-Six Theory of Cribbage into its respective components, it has Pone enjoying First Hand Show and scoring an average of Ten Points, and then Dealer scoring an average Total of Sixteen Points.

If we are dealt a sure-thing here, we've clinched it: but what about if we pick up a "Nothing Hand"? I would contend that, since the Dealer is still "shy" of POSITION, that even at the end of This Deal, the Dealer shall be "short" by a few holes much more than 50% of the time.

This means that even if we have "Nothing At All" today, as long as we can peg CLOSE ENOUGH to PEG OUT during Next Deal as the Dealer (where WE would have the PEGGING ADVANTAGE), then we would likely STILL WIN THIS GAME. But we would have to peg our way to about Hole 117 to "lock this in" as a possibility. And we MUST keep the Dealer "short."

However, if we are dealt a "loser," or even a "moderate" hand with say HALF the number of required points, we can probably therefore still prevail here AS LONG AS WE DON'T ENERGIZE DEALER'S CRIB! A "Below Average" Hand combined with an "Above Average" Crib is a recipe for DISASTER today!

And all of those are the FACTS of our situation, before we even pick up our cards. Let's NOW look at our Hand.

We have a MAXIMUM of Four Points, or exactly HALF of what we need to ensure VICTORY today. And yet to retain those Four Points means that we would have to Toss (7 8). At the risk of making a whole 'Army of Enemies' today, let's rule this out right away!

What first jumps out at me is that perhaps Toss (A Q) will get the job done, as it allows us to retain the (7 8) combo and a Jack. And it's probably "good enough" to WIN here MOST of the time, with its very *defensive* Toss (A Q) discard, but is it optimum?

We ONLY have a guarantee of Four Points, so what was it we decided earlier, when looking at the "lay of the land" (POSITION)? Yes, we wanted to peg a handful! And this suggests rather strongly that we should instead maybe Keep (A 4 7 8) and Toss (J Q) here!

Dealer can STILL beat us, especially if a few 5 Cards end up in the Crib, but by retaining the four lowest-ranking cards, we shall probably *boost* our Winning Chances here tremendously!

And so, it's Toss (J Q), and let's start thinking of what might even be a more difficult challenge today: Which card shall we lead?

That 5 Card Cut is a bolt from "H-e Double-Hockey-Sticks" today, so I may try leading the 7 Card, and "go fishing" for a 4 Card Reply. It is crucial that we do not reveal our FRUSTRATION after seeing the Cut Card today, as typically a 5 Card would be our best ally.

We might even consider leading the 4 Card, just as a "Show of Strength" to the Dealer that we (probably) have a good hand, which of course we do NOT. But the longer it takes her or him to realize this, the better!

And that's because we are STILL in fair-to-good shape to WIN this game!
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: You have great support from a strong ally in HalscribCLX. Admittedly did think about the defense option as opponent does need 18 to win on this deal. Good work!
Ras2829 says: BTW had the X-pointers been 10-K, 10-Q, or Q-K would have done exactly as you have done here and avoid cutting the five spot.
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 7:56 AM
Hi John, hope all's well. If playing defensively here, what are your thoughts on discarding Q-8 and leading the 4 from the resultant A-4-7-J ?

The pegging might go in a variety of favourable ways:
4(4)-X(14)-A(15/2),
4(4)-4(8)-7(15/2),
4(4)-J(14)-J(24/2)-go-7(31/2).
JQT says: This seems okay, but since we are still likely to go to the Next Deal after Toss (8 Q), I would peg DEFENSIVELY here, since you are now only going to be Four Holes shy of VICTORY, even if you do not peg! I would look therefore to peg Two or Three Holes safely here, and be in excellent shape, thus I would probably lead the Ace.
JQT says: Leading the 4 Card is a very good example of what I often describe as the Best Play, but not the Best PLAN. Our main liability in this scenario is the Lone Ace, and while indeed leading the 4 Card gives you Two Clear Paths to (15-2), it also leaves that Awful Ace open as a target for the Dealer holding A-A or A-3, etc. Therefore, with Dealer "shy" of POSITION, after a SAFE discard, needing just Four (more) Points in order to WIN, I believe the best Pegging PLAN is to be rid of that Ace and do so ASAP!
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 11:28 AM
A little over 1/2 the deck (24 cuts0 puts me out. With dealer only 18 out, does not seem like DEF is in order. If I miss the cut and wind up with only 4 points, lead the A hope to add 2 points to get within 2 on my deal if opponent doesn't go out before that. My default is to prefer offensive to defensive when it is close.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 1:59 PM
8pts needed and with A-4-J-Q the cuts AAA, 444, 5555 + 14xXs = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2%. So I'll throw the 7-8.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 2:30 PM
At 113-103* playing a Bold strategy the Win %s and Loss %s are:
________________________Chance of ________________________Continuing
Bold______W1 %___L1 %__100-W1-L1=A
A-4-J-Q___58.9___41.7____0.0
A-4-7-8___49.7___34.7____15.6
7-8-J-Q___38.5___31.5____30.0
4-7-8-J___34.1___23.0____42.9
A-7-8-J___32.0___24.6____43.4
A-4-7-J___30.1___21.9____48.0
4-7-8-Q___29.7___23.8____46.5
A-7-8-Q___28.2___25.2____46.6
A-4-8-J___26.8___22.5____50.7

Bold______W2 %___L2 %___W2xA=B____W1+B=C
A-4-J-Q___62.1___27.8____0.0______58.9
A-4-7-8___68.8___23.3___10.7______60.4
7-8-J-Q___54.2___36.1___16.3______54.8
4-7-8-J___57.3___34.9___24.6______58.7
A-7-8-J___49.9___41.4___21.7______53.7
A-4-7-J___55.6___36.7___26.7______56.8
4-7-8-Q___53.4___38.3___24.8______54.5
A-7-8-Q___46.2___44.8___21.5______49.7
A-4-8-J___57.9___34.5___29.4______56.2

A is the chance of proceeding to next deal. B is the chance of winning having proceeded to next deal. C is the addition of W% for first deal plus B. Holding A-4-J-Q has a 58.9% chance of winning but A-4-7-8 has a 60.4% chance. So over the two deals A-4-7-8 has a better chance of winning so I'll select J-Q to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the A and play Offense:

Lead______Our Pegging Pts.____Loss %
7______________1.79___________55.9
A______________1.76___________47.6
4______________1.75___________48.6
8______________1.55___________56.9

The 7 lead has slightly the best pegging points but the A lead has the lowest chance of losing so I'll lead the A.