September 7, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
113-103*  ?
51%
19%
13%
7%
4%
1%
1%
1%
Total votes: 170

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

james500
2257 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Saturday 3:18 AM
I'll have enough points to win after the cut of an AAA,444,5555 plus 14*X cards 24/46.

After cutting a 5, I'll lead the Ace. Would've led the 4 had the cut been unhelpful.
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dec
4618 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Saturday 3:21 AM
Twenty four cuts gives you eight or more. Five more diamonds gets you to 118. Four lead. dec
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Rosemarie44
1345 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Saturday 3:29 AM
Have to toss that 7-8 to dealer today. Twenty-four cuts, as dec says, increases the hand to eight or more (11 points).
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mrob2199
141 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Saturday 3:33 AM
About half the deck puts you out here if you hold the A-4-J-Q,so we have to bite the bullet and hope for a non middle cut-once we get the cut we need,lead the ace and play off everything
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Andy (muesli64)
1578 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Saturday 4:01 AM
Yes 7-8 is the preferred option. Must have set this because it did not work on the day!!
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Ras2829
3493 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Saturday 5:21 AM
Primary concern is to win the game. Good chance to do that needing 8 points with first count. What's the chance that dealer can limit n/d to 7 points? That's 1 in 5. Play BOLD, will lead the Ace to get rid of it, knowing that RAS has 9 points after seeing starter card. Headed for the State Fair today to play cribbage. Same tomorrow.
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Gougie00
4024 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Saturday 5:38 AM
No need to be timid.

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HK343
37 votes

Joined: July 2012

   
Saturday 6:00 AM
Better than 50/50 to get out on the cut. Going for the win.
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zeke76
356 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Saturday 6:05 AM
Gotta win this hand. Cut I was perfect getting us our last 5 points. Without such a cut it would be offensive pegging.
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mfetchCT425
391 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Saturday 6:53 AM
Like being aggressive when close to home. Play to win here. Nice percentage of cuts will put us out or close to out. With the nice cut will dump my lone ace to get rid of it early.
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JQT
2581 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Saturday 7:33 AM
Before looking at our Hand, let's study the POSITION: At (113-103*) we need just Eight Holes as Pone in order to WIN, and the Dealer is Eighteen Holes away from doing the same.

If we break down the Twenty-Six Theory of Cribbage into its respective components, it has Pone enjoying First Hand Show and scoring an average of Ten Points, and then Dealer scoring an average Total of Sixteen Points.

If we are dealt a sure-thing here, we've clinched it: but what about if we pick up a "Nothing Hand"? I would contend that, since the Dealer is still "shy" of POSITION, that even at the end of This Deal, the Dealer shall be "short" by a few holes much more than 50% of the time.

This means that even if we have "Nothing At All" today, as long as we can peg CLOSE ENOUGH to PEG OUT during Next Deal as the Dealer (where WE would have the PEGGING ADVANTAGE), then we would likely STILL WIN THIS GAME. But we would have to peg our way to about Hole 117 to "lock this in" as a possibility. And we MUST keep the Dealer "short."

However, if we are dealt a "loser," or even a "moderate" hand with say HALF the number of required points, we can probably therefore still prevail here AS LONG AS WE DON'T ENERGIZE DEALER'S CRIB! A "Below Average" Hand combined with an "Above Average" Crib is a recipe for DISASTER today!

And all of those are the FACTS of our situation, before we even pick up our cards. Let's NOW look at our Hand.

We have a MAXIMUM of Four Points, or exactly HALF of what we need to ensure VICTORY today. And yet to retain those Four Points means that we would have to Toss (7 8). At the risk of making a whole 'Army of Enemies' today, let's rule this out right away!

What first jumps out at me is that perhaps Toss (A Q) will get the job done, as it allows us to retain the (7 8) combo and a Jack. And it's probably "good enough" to WIN here MOST of the time, with its very *defensive* Toss (A Q) discard, but is it optimum?

We ONLY have a guarantee of Four Points, so what was it we decided earlier, when looking at the "lay of the land" (POSITION)? Yes, we wanted to peg a handful! And this suggests rather strongly that we should instead maybe Keep (A 4 7 8) and Toss (J Q) here!

Dealer can STILL beat us, especially if a few 5 Cards end up in the Crib, but by retaining the four lowest-ranking cards, we shall probably *boost* our Winning Chances here tremendously!

And so, it's Toss (J Q), and let's start thinking of what might even be a more difficult challenge today: Which card shall we lead?

That 5 Card Cut is a bolt from "H-e Double-Hockey-Sticks" today, so I may try leading the 7 Card, and "go fishing" for a 4 Card Reply. It is crucial that we do not reveal our FRUSTRATION after seeing the Cut Card today, as typically a 5 Card would be our best ally.

We might even consider leading the 4 Card, just as a "Show of Strength" to the Dealer that we (probably) have a good hand, which of course we do NOT. But the longer it takes her or him to realize this, the better!

And that's because we are STILL in fair-to-good shape to WIN this game!
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james500
2257 votes

Joined: June 2013

Saturday 7:56 AM
Hi John, hope all's well. If playing defensively here, what are your thoughts on discarding Q-8 and leading the 4 from the resultant A-4-7-J ?

The pegging might go in a variety of favourable ways:
4(4)-X(14)-A(15/2),
4(4)-4(8)-7(15/2),
4(4)-J(14)-J(24/2)-go-7(31/2).
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joekayak
869 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Saturday 11:28 AM
A little over 1/2 the deck (24 cuts0 puts me out. With dealer only 18 out, does not seem like DEF is in order. If I miss the cut and wind up with only 4 points, lead the A hope to add 2 points to get within 2 on my deal if opponent doesn't go out before that. My default is to prefer offensive to defensive when it is close.
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Coeurdelion
3946 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Saturday 1:59 PM
8pts needed and with A-4-J-Q the cuts AAA, 444, 5555 + 14xXs = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2%. So I'll throw the 7-8.
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HalscribCLX
3725 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Saturday 2:30 PM
At 113-103* playing a Bold strategy the Win %s and Loss %s are:
________________________Chance of ________________________Continuing
Bold______W1 %___L1 %__100-W1-L1=A
A-4-J-Q___58.9___41.7____0.0
A-4-7-8___49.7___34.7____15.6
7-8-J-Q___38.5___31.5____30.0
4-7-8-J___34.1___23.0____42.9
A-7-8-J___32.0___24.6____43.4
A-4-7-J___30.1___21.9____48.0
4-7-8-Q___29.7___23.8____46.5
A-7-8-Q___28.2___25.2____46.6
A-4-8-J___26.8___22.5____50.7

Bold______W2 %___L2 %___W2xA=B____W1+B=C
A-4-J-Q___62.1___27.8____0.0______58.9
A-4-7-8___68.8___23.3___10.7______60.4
7-8-J-Q___54.2___36.1___16.3______54.8
4-7-8-J___57.3___34.9___24.6______58.7
A-7-8-J___49.9___41.4___21.7______53.7
A-4-7-J___55.6___36.7___26.7______56.8
4-7-8-Q___53.4___38.3___24.8______54.5
A-7-8-Q___46.2___44.8___21.5______49.7
A-4-8-J___57.9___34.5___29.4______56.2

A is the chance of proceeding to next deal. B is the chance of winning having proceeded to next deal. C is the addition of W% for first deal plus B. Holding A-4-J-Q has a 58.9% chance of winning but A-4-7-8 has a 60.4% chance. So over the two deals A-4-7-8 has a better chance of winning so I'll select J-Q to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the A and play Offense:

Lead______Our Pegging Pts.____Loss %
7______________1.79___________55.9
A______________1.76___________47.6
4______________1.75___________48.6
8______________1.55___________56.9

The 7 lead has slightly the best pegging points but the A lead has the lowest chance of losing so I'll lead the A.
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