August 23, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
58*-56  ?
55%
23%
9%
6%
3%
1%
0%
Total votes: 177
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:07 AM
Considered 7-8. That three cut would have worked. Now I will move on and play defense with eleven count. dec
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Friday 3:20 AM
I like holding the higher run in my hand and the 4-5 (which is valued at 6.53 points in my crib.
Rosemarie44 says: Note about login: You must click on "remember me" to keep logged in. If you have autofill like I do, you will just bypass this option and go onto the site. If you comment later, your reply shows up as "Guest". I had to cancel autofill for this site to be able to click "remember me".
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:23 AM
Toss (7 8) is a great discard, but Toss (4 5) is even greater, and is a 'top-tier' Dealer Discard, one that allows us to retain a two-card Magic Eleven (3 8).

Even if that Trey were a Diamond Suit, we should ignore discarding "Same Suits" such as Toss (3 4) to our Own Crib if it means not discarding the 5 Card, which belongs in the BOX!

Toss (8 9) is perhaps appropriate in some special positional or endgame struggles, but not here.
JQT says: We should remember *why* Toss (7 8) is the most frequently-seen Dealer Discard: it's not so much due to its Crib Value (which is exceeded by 5-X and 5-6, and matched by 4-5); it is the most popular Dealer Discard more out of *convenience* (it usually allows us to retain a better hand, but not always, as is the case today). - j q t -
mrob2199
1429 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Friday 4:18 AM
Maybe there is something I’m not seeing here but I think the clear discard is 45-I just cannot in good Cribbage conscience keep a 9 with a 345 run
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Friday 4:33 AM
The probability of getting a turn card that helps is very high here. And it did.
zeke76 says: A belated welcome from yesterday.
scottcrib
1630 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Friday 5:28 AM
Good morning! First time commenter here. I have enjoyed learning from you over the past couple of months and finally decided to join in.

I tossed the 7-8 for 3 reasons. First, I am guaranteeing points in my crib (2) along with keeping points in my hand (3). The most you can guarantee is 5 no matter which way you toss.

Second, every cut benefits my hand. If I had tossed 4-5, then I would have 5 points in my hand, but no certain benefit in my crib because A's and 2's by themselves guarantee no help, and those are common pone discards.

And third, I believe 3-4-5-9 as dealer is better for pegging, especially regarding pone's initial play.

I suggested some real life hands that are supposed to appear in October. I hope you enjoy!
zeke76 says: Welcome.
james500 says: Hi Scott, hope you're well. Welcome to the site, and thankyou for sharing your thoughts with us. Just to be pedantic and take issue with your assertion, "The most you can guarantee is 5 no matter which way you toss", though. There are several combinations of cards that will guarantee six or seven points today, (your own choice included), rather than the five point maximum you say.
scottcrib says: Thank you james500. I should have said that the most you can start with is 5, rather than the most you can guarantee is 5.
scottcrib says: Thanks zeke76!
Rosemarie44 says: Hi scottcrib: Welcome to the site. I won't take issue with your comments. Glad to have you.
JCM says: Welcome, Scott! Enjoy and don't be afraid to comment. Sometimes there isn't a consensus - and that brings up fruitful discussions. - Even the 2 computer programs(Haslscrib and Coeurdelion) sometimes don't agree on best play. So just dive right in and enjoy!~
Ras2829 says: Hi scottcrib: Always nice to hear a new voice in the crowd. Welcome aboard and enjoy the ride!
Guest says: Welcome to the CHOD. It is always good to hear a new voice from the wilderness. In regards to your question about previous puzzles you can scroll back a limited ways to check them out. If a particular puzzle was submitted for you to evaluate, that may not be possible. Often the same puzzle is submitted with a different pone or a different board location, thus making it a "different puzzle". Just like yourself, a new blogger in paradise, a re-submitted puzzle may be "old" to some but to you it is "New". Every puzzle submitted at any time can be helpful to new players and remindful to old players. I look forward to your future input.
JRCeagle78 says: Sorry about that previous message, I just forgot to login first. JRCeagle78
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Friday 5:32 AM
Either the 45 or the 78. I think the 45 is more likely to get some help. Mediocre position. I'd like to get to hole 70 but that seems unlikely. Plan B is to play cautious offense.
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Friday 5:35 AM
A few plausible options here, but I'll join the 4-5 gang too.

Am keen to see what Hal makes of 3-4-7-8 (5-9) however.
zeke76 says: Brown has the 59 toss as the 6th best toss (12.1 crib plus hand). He has 45 (13.6) as the best followed by 35, 89, 34, and 78.
james500 says: Hiya Zeke. Thanks for taking the time to research and respond to my comment. Hope you have a lovely weekend.
JCM says: Hi James. 3-4-7-8(5-9) starts with 4 static points plus an average 5.4pts to the crib. Totals 9.4 before the cut. Only a 9 cut misses completely. An X misses on the hand, but helps the crib. You do have pegging possibilities for 15s, 31s and runs. - But the 9.4 total is 2.1 less than the 11.5 that 3-7-8-9(4-5) starts with. So, I think the latter wins. The former is not likely to catch up, imo.
zeke76
1390 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Friday 5:57 AM
Following Ras' advice of putting the 5 into the crib.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Friday 5:59 AM
At 58*-56, we're in a comfortable place. We just want to be at 70, and dealer, before Opp. Given he averages 10pts as pone, he is not likely to reach his 70 and dealer goal for next hand. We, averaging 16 as dealer this hand, are likely to reach 70+ and non-dealer next hand. We should be well ahead of 70 and dealer the hand after that.
It all means: Play for most pts in discarding, but peg cautiously so as not to help Opp. reach 70 this hand(He can be expected to see 66 - if he doesn't get some more than average results, that is.)

(A)3-7-8-9(5-4) is worth 5 static pts +6.5 in the crib = 11.5 pts. Only A,2, X do not help this hand, but X is guaranteed to help the crib.

(B)3-4-5-9(7-8) is worth is worth 3 static pts + 6.4 in the crib = 9.4 pts All cuts help the hand, but a fair number of cuts won't help the crib.

A is worth at the start about 2.1pts more, on average. In pegging, it offers a possible 15-2(the 3 and 8 cards) and a possible run with the 7,8, and 9 cards.
B offers a possible pegging run with the 3,4,5 cards, but no magic 11 is there.

The 2pts difference at the start are the decisive factor, for me.

For me, A it is. 3-7-8-9(4-5).

Peg cautiously. Careful of pairing if Opp. can triple. Go for 31-2 in preference to 15-2, unless you can make 15-2 safely.
JCM says: Today(Friday) is the day I play 6 different Opps. at Seniors' centre. The top 3(total accumulated score over 6 games) win a small monetary prize. A perfect session(win all 6 games) produces a score of 726. A score of 710+ usually gets you into the top 3. Wish me luck!
JCM says: Once I made a score of 718, but 3 others had perfect scores of 726, so I was "out-of-the-money" that day. Other days, a score of 700 can get you into-the-money. That's how it goes.
james500 says: Good luck John. Give 'em hell.
Rosemarie44 says: I ditto that! Good luck John.
Guest says: Thanks, everyone. I'll let you know how it went. They may skunk me today - it's happened before! Usually about 21-25 players there. - I bring down a few hands from this site so we can discuss them - a few of them always want to see what I have that day. (Others don't want to get involved in that.) Just so you know that your site has spread to the Seniors' center, Ras :-)
Guest says: That's me above JCM
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Friday 6:10 AM
JCM says: Not sure how this happened lol
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Friday 6:23 AM
We have discussed this hand in the past, like the 45 in the crib, 3459 just does not work well together. And hope for that 6X from the opponent.
scottcrib says: Hey Jazzselke. Is there anyway to view a database of what has been submitted before in order to avoid this issue?
Jazzselke says: I defer that ? to Ras and others.But it was awhile ago so not a big problem
Ras2829 says: In response to above, I suspect there is no puzzle that has not appeared on this site more than once. Some have reappeared dozens of times,perhaps with differing positions or same hand in differing suits. Moderators have access to all puzzles although don't believe they would delete a puzzle in November that appeared in September. Like puzzles that were to show within a week or so would stand some chance to be deleted. Even then, position would be considered, same puzzle prompts differing responses dependent on position. Choice of strategy also influences puzzle outcomes. So the commentary might vary considerably on an identical puzzle since position and strategy are such major factors. Beyond that, new folks enter this site over time. Those who have been around a long while may get bored when responding to the same or similar puzzles over the past decade. That oft-repeated puzzle may provide some keen answers or insights to "the new kid on the block."
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Friday 6:44 AM
Another text book problem and answer.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Friday 6:46 AM
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Friday 6:55 AM
JRCeagle78 says: My computer isn't very cooperative today. I had more comments about my choice but I don't have the time to resubmit them. I will try again on Monday. Have a nice weekend.
LoneStarPegger
811 votes

Joined: January 2008
 
 
 
Friday 7:11 AM
Have always chucked 7-8 to crib before, but As Rob said, it's a waste to keep the9 with the 3-4-5.
mfetchCT425
1395 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Friday 8:27 AM
I think best option here is to discard 4-5 which is the strongest discard to our own crib For this hand. I also like the 3-8 magic 11 for pegging. Do not see a better way to play this one at this position.
glmccuskey
4095 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Friday 10:38 AM
I agree with most. With that cut unlikely to propel us very far down 3rd street I would peg this very defensively.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Friday 12:06 PM
5 in hand, at least 2 in crib, dealer peg brings us to a minimum of 64. Non dealer needs 13 to get to next CPZ. DEF DEF
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Friday 3:51 PM
I think there are three main options 3-7-8-9 (4-5), 3-4-5-7 (8-9) and 3-4-5-9 (7-8). 4-5 will be better than 3-5 and 3-4:

3-7-8-9: 5pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 11½pts

3-4-5-7: 5pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.72) = 9¾pts

3-4-5-9: 3pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 9½pts

Potential:

3-7-8-9: Improves with 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 333, 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 16 cuts.

3-4-5-7: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 888 + 16xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 9/12/14pts with 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 888 = 19 cuts.

3-4-5-9: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 6/8/12pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666 = 17 cuts.

Position:

We're 14pts past positional hole and Pone is 4pts short of where they would like to be. So I'll be playing Defense.

Pegging:

I think 3-4-5-7 and 3-4-5-9 will peg better than 3-7-8-9.

Summary:

3-7-8-9 has a starting value 1¾/2pts more than the other two and although it has many fewer cuts for improvement I don't think 3-4-5-7 or 3-4-5-9 will catch up the difference even with the better pegging. So I'll throw the 4-5.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Friday 4:44 PM
Update on the 6-game match today. The first 5 games I scored 116,121,121,121,121. Giving up only 5 points to that point. Last game was against Don - he'd lost most of his 5 games games and been skunked, but he could still be a spoiler, for me.

We got to the point where the score was 95-100* for him. I don't think Don knows anything about positional play, but he was in better position.

I was dealt 3-5-7-7-8-8. My best chance was 7-7-8-8(3-5), right? I did that, and a 4 was cut.
Don pegged two last cards to bring his score to 102. I pegged my 12 points to reach 107. Had been hoping for more, clearly.

His hand was 10 points. Brought him to 112. He needed 9 points more. Turned out he had discarded 2-6. So with the 4 there was 2-3-4-5-6 for exactly his 9 points and the win.

I was left with 707 total points, good for 4th place today. 3rd place had 709 pts.

I was out-of-the-money. Ah, well, it was a good afternoon.

Thanks for your interest, folks!
JCM says: In one of the games I won, there was a hand where I believe I made an error. I think was about 85-80* for me and I was dealt 2-2-3-5-K-K. After a lot of deliberation I finally gave him the 2s, keeping 3-5-K-K. A Q was cut and it turned out the 2s didn't hurt me much in his crib. - Still I think probably 2-3-5-K(K-2) would have been better. What do you think?
Rosemarie44 says: Hi John: I am not most experienced here on the site but I believe 2=K is a better toss than 2-2, a much higher value to opponent's crib. Keep 2-3-5-K. minimum of 4 points and a possible maximum of 10 points.
Guest says: At 85-80* I would be all out offense. Throw the 5-K and peg on everything. glmccuskey
JQT says: For future reference, JCM, since we always list OUR OWN score first, then you don't have to add "for me" or "for him," you can simply say the score was (85-80*) and we know you are Pone at Hole 85. I agree with: (95-100*) Keep (7 7 8 8) and Toss (3 5) in the first hand, but in the second hand, I suppose that you might have tried: (85-80*) Keep (2 3 5 K) and Toss (2 5). But you really do want to get at or beyond Hole 95 any way you can, and this might call for: (85-80*) Keep (3 5 K K) and Toss (2 2); that is, unless you're BOLD enough to Toss (5 K)! I might have even considered that, too! - j q t -
JQT says: I meant, might have tried: Keep (2 3 3 K) and Toss (2 5).
JQT says: At (85-80*), you are really desperate to get beyond Hole 95 by the end of This Deal, because if you can become the first player to be the Dealer at or beyond the 'par' Hole 95, you can reliably reach the Finish Line with just three more counts (Hand and Crib as Dealer, and First Hand Show as Pone).
JCM says: Hi JQT - at the time my reasoning was similar to yours - wanted to reach at or near 96 this hand, if at all possible. Means 10 or 11 more points. So I wanted to start with 6. and I thought 2-2 was safer to discard than K-5. So that's what I did and I survived OK. - Then I come back home and second-guess myself into thinking maybe tossing K-2(keeping only 4 points at the start) was safer and therefore(?) better. K-5 is riskier than 2-2, but holding 2-2-3-K gives better pegging chances. So maybe glm is right - be bold and toss K-5.
JCM says: To Rosemarie - thanks for your comment, but the more I think about it, I should be trying to reach 96 pts this hand, and so starting with a 6 pt hold should be better, even if I'm giving opp. a few by doing so. I think I was cogitating myself into an error in the comment you responded to.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Friday 5:33 PM
At 58*-56 playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
3-7-8-9___7.11+(-2.17)+6.52=11.46____10.4____41.5
4-7-8-9___7.15+(-2.11)+5.88=10.92_____9.1____40.0
3-4-5-7___8.33+(-2.13)+4.43=10.63____10.2____39.5
5-7-8-9___7.98+(-2.17)+4.58=10.39_____9.2____39.0
3-4-5-9___6.20+(-2.24)+6.35=10.31_____9.8____37.8

Defense_______L4 %____L5 %
3-7-8-9_______7.8_____30.5
4-7-8-9_______8.0_____31.4
3-4-5-7_______8.7_____32.2
5-7-8-9_______8.0_____31.6
3-4-5-9_______9.1_____33.6

3-7-8-9 is best for expected averages by 0.54pt and is best for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select 4-5 to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
mrob2199
1429 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Friday 6:18 PM
I agree with the all out offense from this position-the 2-2-3-K-scores 10 to 12 points on many cuts and even 14 with the ace cut-the king 5 is obviously not ideal but the dealer is still 41 away so that lessens the danger
JCM says: See above. I expressed my 2nd and third thoughts on this there. I now think you and JQT are right, which means I may have made about the right move in the game, though, as you suggest, tossing K-5 may have been even better.
Ras2829 says: Hi mrob2199: Agree with the choice of the 5-K discard with opponent dealing from hole 80 and n/d need to reach 4th street CPZ (95-99). Most important thing that could happen on this hand is for n/d to reach minimum of 95 holes. Dealer is actually in the middle of nowhere. Crib score averages 4-7-4.8 with any old toss. So 5-K at 7.13 is just 2.3-2.4 points more than the median toss among the 91 discard choices. Not encouraging the discard of the 5-K or a 5 with anything although the position described by JCM begs for that to happen.
Ras2829
5147 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 12:08 AM
A m often asked in hands that contain two three-card runs which run should be played. These six are the most common. A major factor is choice of strategy. Here limiting opponent movement down the board seems to be key with a need for n/d to score 13 points to reach 3rd street CPZ (69-73); so it's def., def., def. and play off the lead. Here holding 3-7-8-9 with the higher scoring 4-5 discard to crib is spot on. Conversely had the strategy choice been offense, you might be amazed how the numbers change. Just ran a query on Cribbage Prof with these cards in this position and 3-4-5-7 with 8-9 discard comes within .02 (hundredths)of a point of 3-7-8-9. The offensive pegging potential of 3-4-5-7 nearly wipes out the potential added crib points of 4-5 as compared to the 8-9. Lots of great commentary above.