August 13, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by James500
71*-84  ?
37%
32%
14%
11%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 198

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

Rosemarie44
1317 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 3:15 AM
Lots of choices with today's hand. toss 5-6, 4-4, or 4-7. Decided with 5-6 to our crib and holding 4-4-4-7. Start with 12 points (could go with the double run) a more defensive hand.
dec
4575 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 3:38 AM
With only one four available I went with the second best ( hopefully ) defensive hand. With crib I am hoping some version of X-Ace or two-three comes up. dec
james500
2229 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 3:40 AM
5-6, 4-4 or 4-7 as Rosemarie says. For those of us choosing 4-7 though, there's a further question: Will it be more profitable to discard the 4d with the 7 and hope for a crib flush, or to keep 4d, 5d and 6d in hand to be able to fake a flush in the pegging?
zeke76
328 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Tuesday 4:14 AM
I think 56 has more potential in the crib than 44 given what’s in our hand. Also 12 in the hand is nice.
Gougie00
3995 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 4:53 AM
An embarrassment of riches. A few way to play this, but I chose the diamond flush. A 8 starter? Looks like I was going to have 14 regardless of which way I played it.
cwed
875 votes

Joined: October 2014

   
Tuesday 5:32 AM
I didn't see the yesterday's congratulatory notes on this site until late last night, so I am replying today. The Battle Creek main provided two examples of "never give up"! First example: I had 19 points after 19 games and was ready to sign up for the consolation when my cards caught fire, as I recorded three skunks in a row to qualify with 28/12. In the playoffs I went 3-0 and 3-1 in the first two rounds. Which brings me to my second example: in the final match, which was best-of-seven (very fortunately for me!), I was down 2-0 and then 3-1. But again my cards got hot , and I won the final three games to capture the trophy. Stay the course! Never give up! [Insert your platitude here.]
Andy (muesli64)
1562 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Tuesday 6:10 AM
What an interesting puzzle! Three main options of very similar value. As I am behind I will put 5 - 6 into the box to help that along.
mfetchCT425
367 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 6:10 AM
Liked 5-6 in my crib even with 4 known 4s out of circulation. Starting with 12 in hand and 2 in crib. Magic 11 for pegging.
JQT
2552 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 6:36 AM
Two Magic Elevens and Two Open-Ended Chances for Growth in Hand, but some regret without (5 6) in the Crib.
wasa
1320 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Tuesday 7:10 AM
Great choices today. I decided I want the 5 in my crib. Imagine a 24 point hand and a 24 point crib. A guy can dream.....
horus93
501 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Tuesday 8:06 AM
Interesting puzzle for closeness + pegging potential of top choices.

Defense to the cut.
JCM
155 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Tuesday 8:45 AM

71*-84
We want to make up 13+ points, as dealer, without allowing Opp. to progress too far.

The 3 main choices seem to be:
a)4D-5-6-7D(flush) discarding 4-4
b)4-4-4-7(5-6)
c) 4-4-5-6(7-4)

BEFORE the cut:
a. Only an A or 2 cut do not help. So 38 cuts help(46-8). Gives 10 pts in hand. 4-4 in crib keeps crib alive(5.5 pts average). Expected total: 15.5 pts.
b. Only a 4 or a 7 does help - 4 cuts only help. Gives 12 pts in hand. 5-6 will average 7 pts in the crib. Expected total: 19 pts.
c. Only an 8 cut does not help. So 42 cuts help(46-4). Gives 12 pts in hand. 7-4 averages 3.5 pts in crib. Expected total: 15.5 pts.

(b) is ruled out - too few helping cuts.
The choice is between a and c. I went for the flush(a) - but am beginning to think (c) is slightly better, because of the 4 more helping cuts.

After the 8 cut, would peg cautiously, so as not to help Opp. move down the board. No pegging war.
Jazzselke
1276 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 9:25 AM
In a neutral position I would hold 4456 with 7 cards giving me either a 21 or 24 hand. But because the opponent is at 84 I believe some defense is in order. So I will hold 4447 because of the Magic 11. 4456 or 4567 could get us in trouble pegging-wise. We will almost assuredly get past Hole 95 on our next deal, so let's try to prevent our opponent from getting there.
JRCeagle78
711 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Tuesday 9:40 AM
4-4-4-7 is clearly the most defensive choice. An offensive strategy may result in the pone pegging a little further down the board than we want. The flush is a good choice also but pegging can easily turn to a nightmare. The only drawback to this hand is the shortage of cuts to substantially improve the hand. It is unusual to have a 7 as an escape card so the play of the hand can be fun and interesting.
Samgash
304 votes

Joined: November 2016

   
Tuesday 10:21 AM
I love this hand. That is all. Hope everyone is having a nice summer.
Ras2829
3463 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 11:01 AM
I'm still thinking that I need to learn to love. RAS is a numbers freak and just pay the numbers. Here, based on my scant empirical evidence, it pays to flush. Choosing an optimal strategy after seeing the starter cared and knowing that I have dealer guaranteed peg, 13 points in hand, and a known two points in crib. Will pair a four if led. Do you remember your discards? If not, that alone will put a few games out of each ten into the win column. Am always amazed at the number of players who cannot remember those two discards. Not recalling those makes the pegging game more difficult with poorer outcomes. Knowing how the starter card adds to the value of your discard to the crib can make a big difference in the strategy employed in the game, and give you knowledge unknown to your opponent which is always a plus. Would score 15-2 on a 9 lead. Will play the 6 on any X-point lead. Would play as far away as possible on any other lead, and attempt to advance the count for a "go" or 31-2 to close. BTW will defer to HalscribCLX although it seems that the flush would be the correct choice regardless of chosen strategy. If n/d were at hole 88 or more, would have chosen def., def., def. As for me, doesn't take much other than this site to have "a nice summer." Thanks Samgash for your fine thoughts. Reaching out to others is always a good thing to do.
joekayak
841 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Tuesday 2:38 PM
Great puzzle. Couldn't resist the diamonds. Ras says it all for this hand in this position.
Coeurdelion
3917 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 3:37 PM
Do we keep 4-4-5-6 (4-7) with a good chance of 24pts or the flush for 10pts with (4-4) to the box or 4-4-4-7 and a great 5-6 discard:

4-4-5-6: 12pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.72) = 16pts

4D-5-6-7: 10pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = 15¾pts

4-4-4-7: 12pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 18½pts

Potential:

4-4-5-6: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 4, 555, 666, 777, 9999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 21/24pts with 4, 555, 666, 777 = 10 cuts.

4D-5-6-7: Improves with 2222, 3333, 4, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 13/16/18/20pts with 3333, 4, 555, 666, 777, 8888 = 18 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

4-4-4-7: Improves with 3333, 4, 777, 8888 = 12 cuts = 12/46 = 26.1% up to 20/24pts with 4, 777 = 4 cuts.

Position:

Again we're 1pt past positional hole and Pone is 2pts short of where they would like to be so I'll be playing Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 4-4-4-7 will peg best.

Summary:

4-4-4-7 is at least 2½pts best for expected averages but has drastically fewer cuts for improvement, although 4 cuts for 20/24pts. 4-4-5-6 has 10 cuts for 21/24pts and 4D-5-6-7 has 18 cuts for 13-20pts plus the extra 0.20pt for the diamond cuts. Playing Defense I think also 4-4-4-7 will peg best so I'll throw the 5-6.
HalscribCLX
3697 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 3:42 PM
At 71*-84 playing a Defense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
4-4-4-7___13.13+(-2.00)+5.83=16.96____30.5____48.5
4D-5-6-7__13.41+(-1.91)+5.24=16.74____36.5____44.5
4-4-5-6*__15.41+(-2.22)+3.32=16.51____34.4____45.4

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
4-4-4-7_______35.7____38.0
4D-5-6-7______44.4____41.7
4-4-5-6*______41.3____40.7

* suited 4-7

4-4-4-7 is best for expected averages by 0.22pt and although it's not best for Win %s it is significantly lower for Loss %s. So I'll select 5-6 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play a Safe pegging strategy to the lead.
JCM
155 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Tuesday 3:57 PM
Wow. I dismissed the 4-4-4-7 out of hand - too few cuts to significantly improve it. Did the software go astray here? If not, how do we reason our way into holding 4-4-4-7?