August 10, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
119*-112  ?
28%
22%
14%
14%
8%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 157

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

JQT
2660 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Saturday 3:00 AM
Depending upon Pone's location with respect to us, being the Dealer at Hole 117, vs. Hole 118, vs. Hole 119, vs. Hole 120 are all very distinct and unique endgame scenarios in Cribbage.

At Hole 119, we know we shall peg our One Hole minimum, but we also know that this will only get us half way to Victory. Ah, there's the rub!

Right off the bat, we notice that our chances of obtaining a game-winning Jack Cut have been cut in half, from 8.7% down to about 4.3%, so we are very sorry to see any Jacks here, and their "value" of being able to score a point for Nobs is totally useless to us today. Thus, let's get down to business.

Therefore, we wish to either PAIR or (15-2) our way to the Finish Line any way we can. One of the most reliable ways to score more than just one point while pegging as either Dealer OR Pone is to retain a very "small" PAIR and seek to "PEAR" ourselves into Victory after a "go" by our opponent. This of course refers to our "Golden" Aces.

But the next most popular way to score Two Points is to match or PAIR or score (15-2) upon our opponent, and we can best do this by retaining as unique a hand as possible. In this sense, this is a bit like yesterday's puzzle.

As possible scoring cards, the Jacks do have some value, as Dealer it's often wise to hold either two cards that add up to fifteen, or to hold two cards that are a PAIR, as our final two cards played when pegging. It's just that this tactic is not nearly as productive as the first two aforementioned scoring methods.

By combining the first two ideas above, quite readily we arrive at Keep (A A 8 Q) and Toss (J J).

This both maximizes our chances to score our Aces "back to back" after a "go," and it rids ourselves of the "common" Jacks, which are the two cards that Pone is LEAST likely to be holding.
HalscribCLX
3798 votes

Joined: February 2008

Saturday 3:17 AM
At 118*-111 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Peg Out %s are the most important:

Offense_____Peg Out %
A-5-5-7______84.7
4-5-7-Q______78.8
A-5-7-Q______77.0
4-5-5-7______77.0
A-4-5-7______76.3
A-4-5-5______74.4
5-5-7-Q______74.1
4-5-5-Q______74.1
A-4-5-Q______68.2
A-4-7-Q______65.3
A-5-5-Q______61.3


A-5-5-7 has the best chance of Pegging Out so I'll select 4-Q to discard. After the Q cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
mrob2199
190 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Saturday 3:23 AM
Keeping the queen instead of one of the jacks just for pure mathematics-if pone leads a jack king or 10 play your queen on it to coax a picture card response to 30-otherwise youll probably have to play it to get your aces in at the end
dec
4705 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Saturday 3:25 AM
Let me count the possibilities. 1.Pairing any of the four cards we kept during play. 2. Play an eight on a seven lead 3. Fifteen the Queen on a five lead (not likely). Now the calculated chances 4. Finish a thirty one 5. Get two goes 6. Last get a go and get last card. At least eight chances. Of course there is always a chance they are short on their first count also... Chance that one? dec
Ras2829
3561 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Saturday 3:36 AM
mrob2199 states "keeping the queen instead of one of the jacks just for pure mathematics". Yes there are three Queens available and only two Jacks this day. More likely to peg with the Queen although she is not a strong pegger. In this case, has more chance to peg than a Jack. If dealer is unable to pick up two pegs early, must keep Aces together for possible back-to-back play at end of pegging sequence.
james500
2332 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Saturday 3:44 AM
Get the count high with an X, and then play the Aces back-to-back.
Gougie00
4101 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Saturday 5:17 AM
Gotta keep the AA to parlay them.
Jazzselke
1349 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Saturday 6:17 AM
Unanimous by all commenters so far.
zeke76
431 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Saturday 6:55 AM
Made the foolish mistake of keeping a jack rather than the queen.
Rosemarie44
1425 votes

Joined: March 2016

Saturday 7:02 AM
Thank you all for today's cribbage lesson. End games are especially challenging for most but especially me.. Great comments on today's hand.
JCM
322 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Saturday 8:17 AM
I'm with Rosemarie!

Lots for me to learn from the endgame comments here.
horus93
590 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Saturday 8:58 AM
Similar to yesterday - I want to discard to maximize my chance of taking pegs but if I can't take any I'm going to want to be playing defense. I wasn't willing to start with 0 either. Surprised this is only 33%
RubyTuesday
265 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Saturday 11:12 AM
I wanted as mixed a hand as possible after keeping AA but didn’t consider that I’d be unlikely to be able to pair a J. My mistake.
HalscribCLX
3798 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Saturday 2:41 PM
At 119*-112 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the chances of pegging out are:

Offense_____________Dealer Peg Out %
A-A-8-Q__________________91.6
A-A-8-J__________________90.8
8-J-J-Q__________________83.2
A-A-J-J__________________79.6
A-A-J-Q__________________78.0
A-8-J-J__________________64.8
A-8-J-Q__________________62.4
A-J-J-Q__________________61.6

A-A-8-Q is slightly better than much better than A-A-8-J but these are both much better than the next. So I'll select J-J to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll play Defense to the lead