August 9, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
118*-111  ?
25%
13%
12%
12%
9%
8%
8%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 183
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Friday 3:26 AM
We do need to peg out first - that much we probably all agree. What to hold - decided on all the peggers. Let's see what others have chosen for today's hand.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:29 AM
Yesterday's analysis:

At 28*-23 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W7 %____W8 %
6-9-K-K___5.04+(-1.93)+3.88=6.99____30.7____52.6
4-J-K-K___4.22+(-2.52)+5.22=6.92____35.4____56.0

Defense______L7 %____L8 %
6-9-K-K______17.0____21.4
4-J-K-K______16.6____18.6

6-9-K-K is slightly better for expected averages by 0.07pt but 4-J-K-K is significantly better for Win %s and slightly better for Loss %s so despite that it's still early in the game I'll select 6-9 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Coeurdelion says: Apologies for missing yesterday's. As some people asked I've posted it this morning.
Coeurdelion says: Apologies for missing yesterday's. As some people asked I've posted it this morning.
JCM says: Thanks for posting. What were the figures for 4-6-9-J(K-K)?
JCM says: Thanks for posting. What were the figures for 4-6-9-J(K-K)?
Ras2829 says: Hi Coeurdelion: Appreciate the late data. I chose 4-J-K-K knowing that Halscrib, REX, and Cribbage Prof show retaining the 6-9-K-K as the best approach. If did not hold 4-J-K-K, would have retained 4-6-9-J with K-K to my crib. Sorry can't bring myself to hold such a hand on my deal. Only time would hold 6-9-K-K is on the other person's deal. The figures speak for themselves as you've shown above and favor holding 6-9-K-K. Won't live long enough to make that choice. Having said that, you must know my great respect for the wizardry of Hal Mueller's creation.
Ras2829 says: Hi Coeurdelion: Appreciate the late data. I chose 4-J-K-K knowing that Halscrib, REX, and Cribbage Prof show retaining the 6-9-K-K as the best approach. If did not hold 4-J-K-K, would have retained 4-6-9-J with K-K to my crib. Sorry can't bring myself to hold such a hand on my deal. Only time would hold 6-9-K-K is on the other person's deal. The figures speak for themselves as you've shown above and favor holding 6-9-K-K. Won't live long enough to make that choice. Having said that, you must know my great respect for the wizardry of Hal Mueller's creation.
JCM says: Hi Ras - thanks for your comment. Re: 4-6-9-J(K-K) - 4 more cuts help this hand than cuts helping the 4-J-K-K hold. Only the Q cut(1/13 chance) helps the latter where it doesn't help the former. That's like adding around a half-point to the latter's value. The extra 4 cuts ( 4/13 chance) add perhaps 2+ points to the former(adding about 2/3 of a point to its value). The 5 cut helps both. - So how do we know that 4-6-9-J is inferior to 4-J-K-K? Given also that that the 4-6-9-J was the second-most voted on, I would like to see the figures on that hold. Thanks again for your input - JCM
JCM says: Hi Ras - thanks for your comment. Re: 4-6-9-J(K-K) - 4 more cuts help this hand than cuts helping the 4-J-K-K hold. Only the Q cut(1/13 chance) helps the latter where it doesn't help the former. That's like adding around a half-point to the latter's value. The extra 4 cuts ( 4/13 chance) add perhaps 2+ points to the former(adding about 2/3 of a point to its value). The 5 cut helps both. - So how do we know that 4-6-9-J is inferior to 4-J-K-K? Given also that that the 4-6-9-J was the second-most voted on, I would like to see the figures on that hold. Thanks again for your input - JCM
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:58 AM
Keeping cards that I can fifteen or pair A 4 7 8 10 ten cards. I left out the five. Needing ten points to go first 2 3 6 cards might give me a run to go out also. dec
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:59 AM
We shall always peg One Hole for either Last Card or a "go" thus if we can score either (15-2) or a PAIR the Lead Card by Pone, we shall win.

Therefore, retain a VARIETY. I also considered (A 5 5 7) due to the three-card Magic Eleven.
JQT says: At (118*-111) after Keep (A 4 5 7) Toss (5 Q): This is a good puzzle to work out some pegging strategy. Of course, we PAIR any lead that matches our hand, but after a Deuce Lead, I would play the 4 Card, and NOT the 5 Card. If we play the 5 Card, and it gets PAIRED, we have no winning play at a Count of 12. But if our 4 Card is PAIRED, then at a Count of 10, we can play our 5 Card for (15-2) and win. After a Trey Lead, now I think BOTH the 4 Card and the 5 Card are incorrect, since if either gets PAIRED, we have no scoring play. We should play our Ace! This allows us one more "stab" at (15-2) as well as a RUN, both of which win. A 6 Card Lead is easy, but frequently misplayed: it begs us to play our 4 Card, giving up five holes after (15-5) but securing the win as we play our 7 Card for Victory. A 9 Card Lead is our remaining challenge, and I would be inclined to play our 5 Card here, since we did toss one in our Crib as well. If Pone does PAIR it, we still have two "small" cards with which to do battle. But if Pone scores (15-2) with an Ace, we can immediately win by PAIRING it. These are just some quick thoughts on today's pegging prospects!
Guest says: Pear
JCM says: Thanks for the pegging hints! Helpful.
mfetchCT425
1400 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Friday 4:10 AM
As dealer, and only needing 3 pegs (with 1 peg guaranteed) keeping 4 different cards. Will pair or 15 anything played.
Jazzselke
2587 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Friday 4:12 AM
Hold 4 different cards
Guest says: Looks funny, two hands the same just suited difference, skews the results. Really 34% right now.
mrob2199
1436 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Friday 4:59 AM
Only 1 option here IMO-as Jazzselke said one of each for maximum pegging options
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Friday 5:22 AM
We need 3 pegging points to win. One is guaranteed(we're dealer). So we need to peg just 2 more. We don't need 2 5s to do that - so one 5 goes.
Keep the 4-7 and 4-A for possible 31-2 and 15-2 respectively.
Suggests A-4-5-7(Q-5).
Seems I'm back in the majority today :-)
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Friday 5:41 AM
Tantalising position. If Pone's lead card seems to have some synergy with the cut, I'll assume they have enough points to win with first show, and will play aggressively in an attempt to peg out. If their lead card doesn't seem to work well with the cut, then maybe they don't have a 10 point hand, (only an average for Pone, NOT a guarantee), and so I'd play more cautiously to avoid them scoring any crucial pegging points.

A-4-5-7 allows me the flexibility to play either way.
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Friday 6:11 AM
"One of the each"
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Friday 6:52 AM
The only tough decision with this hand is whether to keep the 5c or the 5d. Decisions, decisions, decisions.
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Friday 8:29 AM
N/d likely to end up in hole 120 with average pegs and hand score. RAS will take the first two pegs offered regardless since even six pegs on a triple won't matter. The two is more important to me than fearing a triple. Keep four different cards. Although crib won't matter, might as well put two in there of the same color. Three pegs for dealer based on my scant empirical evidence is about 75%. Those are good odds. With three cards of high pegging value and one of moderate value, dealer ought to be able to post a win in this game without non-dealer first count.
horus93
1282 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Friday 8:59 AM
If we score at all besides the first "go" we win. Otherwise we're playing defense, of course.

No need to keep a 5 since we already have one or the Q since we can already score on a Q lead with our other 5. And these cards are decently spread out if we end up playing defense.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Friday 10:10 AM
PEG PEG PEG no dealer at 11 out may have to keep a X-X-X or X-X-X-5 type hand. Keep one of the 5's. Take the 15 if offered and wait for the dealer guaranteed peg ad the game. Throw one of the 5's and the Q since a Q lead can always be 15-2.
joekayak says: s/b non-dealer at 11 out.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Friday 4:06 PM
At 118*-111 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Peg Out %s are the most important:

Offense_____Peg Out %
A-5-5-7______84.7
4-5-7-Q______78.8
A-5-7-Q______77.0
4-5-5-7______77.0
A-4-5-7______76.3
A-4-5-5______74.4
5-5-7-Q______74.1
4-5-5-Q______74.1
A-4-5-Q______68.2
A-4-7-Q______65.3
A-5-5-Q______61.3


A-5-5-7 has the best chance of Pegging Out so I'll select 4-Q to discard. After the Q cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
JCM says: How does A-5-5-7 work out to be the best pegging hold??
JCM says: How does A-5-5-7 work out to be the best pegging hold??
Rosemarie44 says: The "Peg Out %" for A-5-5-7 is 84.7%. The first hand listed of the various choices in descending order.
Rosemarie44 says: The "Peg Out %" for A-5-5-7 is 84.7%. The first hand listed of the various choices in descending order.
JCM says: Yes, but the question is how can this be so? Keeping all different cards gives better chances for pairing, 15s, runs, etc. What benefit comes from keeping 2 fives, when only 1 is needed?
JCM says: Yes, but the question is how can this be so? Keeping all different cards gives better chances for pairing, 15s, runs, etc. What benefit comes from keeping 2 fives, when only 1 is needed?
JQT says: The three-card Magic Eleven (A 5 5) is always very powerful. Also, some of the other top-rated hands listed above that contain the Queen might be better at getting the Count up toward thirty-one more quickly, thus we could reach two instances of "go" and "Last Card." But don't assume those numbers are perfect; the computer program will not always be 100% correct (it just beats most or all of us!). I'm still trying to encourage Hal to ship out ONE MORE VERSION, even if it's FREEWARE, of Crib Prof to run on Windows 10. A final gesture to ensure that his name goes down in Cribbage History. He is not too encouraged, I must report. This is a shame: it means that for those of us who did purchase the software, we shall have to run it on "vintage" Windows XP machines until we expire.
JQT says: The three-card Magic Eleven (A 5 5) is always very powerful. Also, some of the other top-rated hands listed above that contain the Queen might be better at getting the Count up toward thirty-one more quickly, thus we could reach two instances of "go" and "Last Card." But don't assume those numbers are perfect; the computer program will not always be 100% correct (it just beats most or all of us!). I'm still trying to encourage Hal to ship out ONE MORE VERSION, even if it's FREEWARE, of Crib Prof to run on Windows 10. A final gesture to ensure that his name goes down in Cribbage History. He is not too encouraged, I must report. This is a shame: it means that for those of us who did purchase the software, we shall have to run it on "vintage" Windows XP machines until we expire.
Ras2829 says: For what it's worth, it seems to me needing three pegs, four differing cards provide greater opportunity to gain those peg points. The strength of the 5 spot is that it covers another 5 and all those X-pointers. A-4-5 have high pegging value, 6-7-8-9 have moderate pegging value, Jack has low pegging value, and 10-Q-K have no pegging value. Have used that guide for years with good effect and it was cribbage legend DeLynn Colvert who passed on that bit of pegging information to me. Many who have seriously studied this game have stood on the shoulders of this great man from Missoula MT. I owe a great debt of gratitude to him and his pioneering the crib strategy movement. DeLynn Colvert changed the playing field entirely with his "Theory of 26" and the application of positional strategy to this wonderful game. De Lynn stands on a very lofty pedestal in Cribbage World!
Ras2829 says: For what it's worth, it seems to me needing three pegs, four differing cards provide greater opportunity to gain those peg points. The strength of the 5 spot is that it covers another 5 and all those X-pointers. A-4-5 have high pegging value, 6-7-8-9 have moderate pegging value, Jack has low pegging value, and 10-Q-K have no pegging value. Have used that guide for years with good effect and it was cribbage legend DeLynn Colvert who passed on that bit of pegging information to me. Many who have seriously studied this game have stood on the shoulders of this great man from Missoula MT. I owe a great debt of gratitude to him and his pioneering the crib strategy movement. DeLynn Colvert changed the playing field entirely with his "Theory of 26" and the application of positional strategy to this wonderful game. De Lynn stands on a very lofty pedestal in Cribbage World!
JCM says: Thanks for your comments! I'll try to remember those pegging combos. - Ras - about my comment to you about yesterday's Halscrib - any chance of reporting what Halscrib says about holding 4-6-9-J, given ~35% of voters here voted for that?
JCM says: Thanks for your comments! I'll try to remember those pegging combos. - Ras - about my comment to you about yesterday's Halscrib - any chance of reporting what Halscrib says about holding 4-6-9-J, given ~35% of voters here voted for that?
JQT says: I've said it before, but RAS sets the stage for me to repeat one little plea or rant of mine: I wish strong Cribbage players would try to SAVE THEIR GAMES! If you play online, or against a program, this can be done automatically (but so often, players still do not do it). Now, with the passing of DeLynn Colvert, ostensibly one of, if not the very best player who ever picked up cards and pegs, how many of his games do we have? Luckily, he not only published a few in his seminal book, "Play Winning Cribbage," but annotated them as well. But I have to lament the fact that when I compare this with when a famous Chess player passes on, we often have thousands upon thousands of highly-annotated games from that player! In Cribbage, we have zip. Nada. Squat. As far as I know, in over three decades of the periodical "Cribbage World," there has NEVER BEEN ONE PUBLISHED GAME OF CRIBBAGE! How does this happen? I have been trying for nearly a decade now to devise a method or system that would enable players to "capture" a live game with as little intrusion as possible, such that it can be re-created and then annotated or at least published later. Having a database of a few tens of millions of games archived by say the final eight or sixteen rounds of Cribbage games played at Reno or Raleigh over the decades would be such a treasure! And yet we have not one single game. "Let's look up what Wergin would retain as Dealer at Hole 118 and then see how Colvert might have handled the pegging." Answer: "Oh, sorry: we cannot do that. It doesn't exist." And that's the result of not saving our games. I remember the most challenging Cribbage Games I have ever played in life were the weekly Web Club, a Duplicate Cribbage endeavor painstakingly run and compiled by Hal Mueller, and one of the delights of this was being able to see and go over other players' games and examine how they handled identical problems of discarding and pegging. We were perhaps a dozen players, and this ended a decade ago. Every time we play a game, we are throwing away the beautiful essence of our game of Cribbage, because each time we play a game it is not being saved or recorded. - j q t -
JQT says: I've said it before, but RAS sets the stage for me to repeat one little plea or rant of mine: I wish strong Cribbage players would try to SAVE THEIR GAMES! If you play online, or against a program, this can be done automatically (but so often, players still do not do it). Now, with the passing of DeLynn Colvert, ostensibly one of, if not the very best player who ever picked up cards and pegs, how many of his games do we have? Luckily, he not only published a few in his seminal book, "Play Winning Cribbage," but annotated them as well. But I have to lament the fact that when I compare this with when a famous Chess player passes on, we often have thousands upon thousands of highly-annotated games from that player! In Cribbage, we have zip. Nada. Squat. As far as I know, in over three decades of the periodical "Cribbage World," there has NEVER BEEN ONE PUBLISHED GAME OF CRIBBAGE! How does this happen? I have been trying for nearly a decade now to devise a method or system that would enable players to "capture" a live game with as little intrusion as possible, such that it can be re-created and then annotated or at least published later. Having a database of a few tens of millions of games archived by say the final eight or sixteen rounds of Cribbage games played at Reno or Raleigh over the decades would be such a treasure! And yet we have not one single game. "Let's look up what Wergin would retain as Dealer at Hole 118 and then see how Colvert might have handled the pegging." Answer: "Oh, sorry: we cannot do that. It doesn't exist." And that's the result of not saving our games. I remember the most challenging Cribbage Games I have ever played in life were the weekly Web Club, a Duplicate Cribbage endeavor painstakingly run and compiled by Hal Mueller, and one of the delights of this was being able to see and go over other players' games and examine how they handled identical problems of discarding and pegging. We were perhaps a dozen players, and this ended a decade ago. Every time we play a game, we are throwing away the beautiful essence of our game of Cribbage, because each time we play a game it is not being saved or recorded. - j q t -
JCM says: Hmmm - Maybe we could use Liam Brown's layout (https://cliambrown.com/cribbage/). His layout is for just 1 hand, so we might need about 9 of these, numbered in advance, to cover the whole game. A single line could display the pegging. eg 3-K-2-Q-6; 9-2-5. Points could be totaled later. Perhaps board position after each hand quickly jotted on that hand's layout page. - Could that work?
JCM says: Hmmm - Maybe we could use Liam Brown's layout (https://cliambrown.com/cribbage/). His layout is for just 1 hand, so we might need about 9 of these, numbered in advance, to cover the whole game. A single line could display the pegging. eg 3-K-2-Q-6; 9-2-5. Points could be totaled later. Perhaps board position after each hand quickly jotted on that hand's layout page. - Could that work?
JCM says: Hand/discard could be shown under the layout, eg JQQK(2-3)
JCM says: Hand/discard could be shown under the layout, eg JQQK(2-3)
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 6:14 AM