August 9, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
118*-111  ?
25%
13%
12%
12%
9%
8%
8%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 183

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

Rosemarie44
1317 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Friday 3:26 AM
We do need to peg out first - that much we probably all agree. What to hold - decided on all the peggers. Let's see what others have chosen for today's hand.
HalscribCLX
3697 votes

Joined: February 2008

Friday 3:29 AM
Yesterday's analysis:

At 28*-23 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W7 %____W8 %
6-9-K-K___5.04+(-1.93)+3.88=6.99____30.7____52.6
4-J-K-K___4.22+(-2.52)+5.22=6.92____35.4____56.0

Defense______L7 %____L8 %
6-9-K-K______17.0____21.4
4-J-K-K______16.6____18.6

6-9-K-K is slightly better for expected averages by 0.07pt but 4-J-K-K is significantly better for Win %s and slightly better for Loss %s so despite that it's still early in the game I'll select 6-9 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

dec
4575 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Friday 3:58 AM
Keeping cards that I can fifteen or pair A 4 7 8 10 ten cards. I left out the five. Needing ten points to go first 2 3 6 cards might give me a run to go out also. dec
JQT
2552 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Friday 3:59 AM
We shall always peg One Hole for either Last Card or a "go" thus if we can score either (15-2) or a PAIR the Lead Card by Pone, we shall win.

Therefore, retain a VARIETY. I also considered (A 5 5 7) due to the three-card Magic Eleven.
mfetchCT425
367 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Friday 4:10 AM
As dealer, and only needing 3 pegs (with 1 peg guaranteed) keeping 4 different cards. Will pair or 15 anything played.
Jazzselke
1276 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Friday 4:12 AM
Hold 4 different cards
mrob2199
116 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Friday 4:59 AM
Only 1 option here IMO-as Jazzselke said one of each for maximum pegging options
JCM
155 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Friday 5:22 AM
We need 3 pegging points to win. One is guaranteed(we're dealer). So we need to peg just 2 more. We don't need 2 5s to do that - so one 5 goes.
Keep the 4-7 and 4-A for possible 31-2 and 15-2 respectively.
Suggests A-4-5-7(Q-5).
Seems I'm back in the majority today :-)
james500
2229 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Friday 5:41 AM
Tantalising position. If Pone's lead card seems to have some synergy with the cut, I'll assume they have enough points to win with first show, and will play aggressively in an attempt to peg out. If their lead card doesn't seem to work well with the cut, then maybe they don't have a 10 point hand, (only an average for Pone, NOT a guarantee), and so I'd play more cautiously to avoid them scoring any crucial pegging points.

A-4-5-7 allows me the flexibility to play either way.
Gougie00
3995 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Friday 6:11 AM
"One of the each"
JRCeagle78
711 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Friday 6:52 AM
The only tough decision with this hand is whether to keep the 5c or the 5d. Decisions, decisions, decisions.
Ras2829
3463 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Friday 8:29 AM
N/d likely to end up in hole 120 with average pegs and hand score. RAS will take the first two pegs offered regardless since even six pegs on a triple won't matter. The two is more important to me than fearing a triple. Keep four different cards. Although crib won't matter, might as well put two in there of the same color. Three pegs for dealer based on my scant empirical evidence is about 75%. Those are good odds. With three cards of high pegging value and one of moderate value, dealer ought to be able to post a win in this game without non-dealer first count.
horus93
501 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Friday 8:59 AM
If we score at all besides the first "go" we win. Otherwise we're playing defense, of course.

No need to keep a 5 since we already have one or the Q since we can already score on a Q lead with our other 5. And these cards are decently spread out if we end up playing defense.
joekayak
841 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Friday 10:10 AM
PEG PEG PEG no dealer at 11 out may have to keep a X-X-X or X-X-X-5 type hand. Keep one of the 5's. Take the 15 if offered and wait for the dealer guaranteed peg ad the game. Throw one of the 5's and the Q since a Q lead can always be 15-2.
HalscribCLX
3697 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Friday 4:06 PM
At 118*-111 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Peg Out %s are the most important:

Offense_____Peg Out %
A-5-5-7______84.7
4-5-7-Q______78.8
A-5-7-Q______77.0
4-5-5-7______77.0
A-4-5-7______76.3
A-4-5-5______74.4
5-5-7-Q______74.1
4-5-5-Q______74.1
A-4-5-Q______68.2
A-4-7-Q______65.3
A-5-5-Q______61.3


A-5-5-7 has the best chance of Pegging Out so I'll select 4-Q to discard. After the Q cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
james500
2229 votes

Joined: June 2013

Saturday 6:14 AM