July 16, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
36*-37  ?
35%
24%
17%
15%
4%
1%
Total votes: 189
mrob2199
1435 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:24 AM
I think this discard gives us the best chance to salvage something out of this horrible hand-looking for a 3,5 or q cut-and thankfully we hit one of them
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:25 AM
So many choices today, Ras. This combination is what I settled on. The only difference between 2-6 and A-6 is that 2-6 is valued a little higher.
JCM says: We agree today, Rosemarie. Is this a case of "Great minds think alike", or "Fools seldom differ?" :-)
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:36 AM
Need to be saved by the cut. Plus I do not think we would peg well with keeping A-2 here. dec
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:52 AM
In Cribbage, as in Life: Don't Sweat the "Small Stuff" ... Put the "Small Stuff" in your Crib!
JQT says: Let's hope that Pone unloaded Toss (3 Q) over the board today, because now, we'll have Nine Points in our Hand, and Nine Points in our Crib! Things like this can really r-a-t-t-l-e some opponents. (Especially if we can peg Nine Holes, too; but I'm afraid that's a topic for the Advanced Class.)
JQT says: Our Nine-Hole, Mini-Golf-Course, Fairy-Tale Pegging Scenario might proceed: (A 4 9 J) vs (6 J J K): 9 (9) 6 (15=2) A (16) K (26) 4 (30-1) . J (10) J (20-2) J (30=7)
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:13 AM
Best of a bad situation. Try to play the crib.
Guest says: Not with you today. I went with the ace in hopes of hitting 31. S :)
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:17 AM
Lemonade
Carl Walters
254 votes

Joined: June 2019
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:49 AM
I went with A-2 discard which seems to be the most popular so far (I must be learning something!) The Q cut is very nice too have, especially as she's red. It's early in the game so I'm not too worried at this point.
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:15 AM
42/46 chance the cut won't be a Queen, so I'm not concerned with keeping the Jacks together with the King.

42 cards = 7*6 cards =
42 cards = 7*13% =
42 cards = 91% of the deck.

Oh well, that's probabilities for you. Unlikely things will still occur every now and then.
JQT says: When we are the Dealer, it's important to think in terms of how the various cuts may affect our Hand and Crib in the aggregate. For example: What are the Cuts (if any) that help the (A 2 6 K) Hand and (J J) Discard, that would NOT also help the (6 J J K) Hand and (A 2) Discard? If the profile of helpful Cuts is similar for either choice (as I believe it is today, since few Cuts help one decision more than the other), then our discarding selection should be primarily concerned with the remaining variables, which are PEGGING and potential Crib Value. Toss (J J) is not a bad choice, in my opinion; but we want to make sure we are doing it for the right reason(s). One way to employ this idea is to think before discarding, "What particular Cut would I like to get?" and then examine whether such a Cut might help us *anyway* regardless of which discard we choose.
JQT says: Or if it's easier, just complete your calculation above: A Queen Cut will quadruple the (? J J K) Hand from Two Points up to Eight Points, but it will only occur about 9% of the time; however, what percent of the time will ANY Cut help (A 2 6 K) and Toss (J J) and NOT ALSO help (6 J J K) and Toss (A 2)? If the answer is less than 9% (and it's probably closer to 0%), then the only *cost* of Toss (A 2) is to our potential pegging.
PBatterson
1454 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:20 AM
I often have to put 2 six in my the crib to keep a good hand. Also keep the ace may help in pegging
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:44 AM
Liam's robot says 2-6 would be the superior toss. Another ras puzzle where the rules of thumb most of us use would lead one somewhat astray. I figured A-2 had a better shot of hitting a 3 or a 4 in the crib when in fact the multiplying power of the A or 2 in hand hitting a 4 or 3 cut with 3 X cards would outweigh the extra crib value.

Still it's only 0.1. Lucky cut, this position is pretty defensive but early in the game with only 8 known points I'd definitely pair a jack.
horus93 says: *9 with nob
jmath714
1299 votes

Joined: January 2012
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:57 AM
My thought was to hold a split and play defense here. I usually don’t consider position until about hole 40-45, this is right around that zone. I think no matter the hold and cut, defense would seem to be the order here.

I won’t be anywhere near 60 by the end of this hand & crib, so it’s best to stay away from the opponent here and hope he/she catches a bad hand as well; I’ll try to get rid of my ace as quickly as possible here.
JQT says: A solitary "small" card can easily be trapped, but by having an Ace AND Deuce here, you should usually be well-insulated from such tactics, especially as the Dealer. When our opponent has small(er) cards, and more of them, the danger is heightened. For example, if we 'drop' our King on a Ten Card or a King Lead, there are very few Count Totals that could trap us into a losing pegging battle. More importantly: if we unload one of our two "small" cards immediately, now we become more prone to having our other "small" card trapped! These "small" cards work best together. Many players follow a Ten Card (or "X") lead with an Ace, but here I think that even after a Jack Lead, I might play the King: if we give up a RUN, at least we parry somewhat with (31=2). At a Count of Twenty-Five or Twenty-Six, we should also be in good shape with our Ace-Deuce (if pone had a Trey, it likely would have been led). This could become a tricky pegging hand, mostly I think because it's an unusual arrangement for a Dealer. There is probably some "best" way to play it, and maybe others have some ideas.
cwed
1355 votes

Joined: October 2014
 
 
 
Tuesday 9:03 AM
Yucky starting hand! After this lucky cut, now I'm dreaming of having dealt the pone 2-3-7-7-8-8!
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 9:16 AM
Throw and pray. Keep as many lucky cuts alive as possible. Throw the touchies in the crib. Hope for a high low throw from pone. Cut a Queen. Easy Peasy.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Tuesday 9:31 AM
36*-37 Bad hand makes for a good puzzle, Ras. We all have to learn to make the best of a sorry 6 cards.
I could be wrong, but in situations like this(even score, not near end of game where pegging can be paramount) I tend to keep the A with the X values in hopes of a 31-2. 6-2 in crib can usually score 4-7 points. Run possibility maintained with keeping the J-J-K. A 5-cut would be helpful to both hand and crib.
Interested to see what the others do here.
I discarded the 6-2.
JCM says: If I needed to peg more points(near end of game?) I would discard the two Jacks.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Tuesday 12:56 PM
Well, this is why I visit this site.
King Richard
2825 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 1:40 PM
Keep points, toss potential. Today’s mantra by the King for this nasty little hand.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 2:58 PM
With rubbish hands as Dealer I normally put close cards in the crib. But here the only close cards are A-2 which is closed at one end and the gapper J-K splits the pair. So I'll go with the A-2.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:14 PM
At 36*-37 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
6-J-J-K___4.11+2.35+4.16=10.62____11.1____20.6
A-2-6-K___2.09+3.28+5.15=10.52_____9.6____18.6
A-J-J-K___4.46+2.02+3.99=10.47____11.3____21.6
2-J-J-K___4.46+2.02+3.91=10.39____10.9____21.1
A-2-J-J___4.46+2.70+3.15=10.31____10.1____20.8

Offense_______L6 %____L7 %
6-J-J-K_______25.3____51.2
A-2-6-K_______26.0____53.0
A-J-J-K_______24.5____50.1
2-J-J-K_______24.5____50.4
A-2-J-J_______23.6____50.0

6-J-J-K is best for expected averages by 0.15pt and although A-J-J-K is slightly best for Win %s and second best for Loss %s as it's early in the game I'll put most weight on the expected averages and select A-2 to discard.

After the QH cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
Gougie00 says: Okay, Greg is confused. Am I planning to win or not lose? Seems that A-J-J-K is the best keep if I actually want to win. While we are at it, I've never won a game by .15 of a point.
Ras2829 says: Wonder how this would sort out if choosing a defense strategy for the pegging?
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:49 PM
Had queried this hand and similar on Halscrib, REX, and Cribbage Prof over the years and knew the choices were exceedingly close. Note the A-2-6-K pegs nearly a point more choosing offense and the crib scores nearly one point more. There are multiple reasons (pegging and crib score already mentioned) why playing zero or playing two points are so close in this case. Stand alone pairs (no 15's and no adjacent card) often score well in crib. Since holding J-J, opponent is likely to find Q-K, 10-Q, or 9-10 of little use. In addition the starter card is more likely to benefit the J-J with a card either side of the Jacks. There are only two Jacks remaining in the deck and eight 10 spots or Queens. Take a long look when holding stand-alone pairs (3, 5, 7, J connectors particularly) as the crib might be the best spot for them for the reasons indicated. Play on the lead and take any pegs offered.
Jazzselke says: So did you really throw JJ?
Ras2829 says: Hi jazzselke: In this position, retained the cards that had the greatest chance to score 8-9 points. The A-2-6-K cannot score that many. My strategy was offense. Had I ben dealing from 43-47nd, would have chosen a defense strategy. Then would have tossed J-J.