July 15, 2019
30% | |||||
29% | |||||
19% | |||||
16% | |||||
3% | |||||
0% | |||||
| Total votes: 196 | |||||
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Rosemarie44 2052 votes Joined: March 2016 |
Monday 3:34 AM
I like the Flush again for our position. Best variety of cards to defend as dealer requires 5 points to win (4 is we give him his one point as dealer). Also the only hand that starts with 6 points. |
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dec 6358 votes Joined: April 2008 |
Monday 3:48 AM
We will probably not to get a great chance next hand even if we limit our opponent so.. maybe they got dealt something like a facecard three card run nine thru King or a variety spread out that they have to at the start to hold. After starter we have enough so lets hope for something like maybe we take the pegging 2 or 3 to 1. I hate to lead the seven here but I tink we need that two for end pegging on a round. dec wasa says: I haven't had my morning coffee, but I don't see the 12 points needed to go out (I see 10 points). Guest says: agree T was thinking total on the pegging not counting on a next hand. dec |
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wasa 3018 votes Joined: November 2014 |
Monday 4:00 AM
Needing 12 points, I kept the run, crossing my fingers for a 6 or 7. |
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zeke76 1396 votes Joined: August 2018 |
Monday 4:10 AM
Tried the flush. Need to peg two given the 3 as a starter without letting dealer peg 5. |
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Samgash 402 votes Joined: November 2016 |
Monday 4:20 AM
So I know a 6 or 7 will get me 12. Hopefully I can scrape a peg in pegging in that scenario. (Obviously a bad cut here) The flush is probably the way to go since I didn’t pick it and opponent might want to peg aggressively here. |
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james500 3923 votes Joined: June 2013 |
Monday 5:05 AM
Kept the 2 to "escape" during the pegging.
Hopefully cut another 5,6,7 or one of the eights. Fortunately we've avoided cutting a Jack, but 3d dlesn james500 says: * doesn't help enough. |
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Gougie00 5730 votes Joined: March 2008 |
Monday 5:25 AM
A difficult task to peg out and prevent the pone from going out. I'll hold the disparate flush and play dodge, just incase the pone has a clunker. Jazzselke says: We are the non-dealer |
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PBatterson 1454 votes Joined: March 2009 |
Monday 6:00 AM
kept the superior pegging hand although it was a tough choice vs. the flush |
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mfetchCT425 1399 votes Joined: February 2009 |
Monday 6:04 AM
I think this is the best way to get 12 or close to 12 with a cut. 2,5,6,7, or 8 cut will give us 10-12 points. Will be very difficult to peg 5 holes after the cut. Might lead the 7 now and see what happens. Guest says: I like the two lead. Glmcc |
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Jazzselke 2586 votes Joined: March 2009 |
Monday 6:12 AM
2567 improves on every cut, so we will have at least 7, the flush does not improve on 4 or 9. With the 3 cut I might lead the off-card deuce and hope for the best. 5679 also improves on every cut. Guest says: Great tournament weekend--good job by you and team, and fun had by all.Even w ith lousy cards!(except for mcckuskey, and it was nice seeing him) S :) Jazzselke says: Thanks, can't wait for Raleigh! Guest says: Me too, since I finalllllly can go! S:) |
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JCM 910 votes Joined: April 2019 |
Monday 6:12 AM
Score: 109-116*. We need 12 points between hand and pegging(we count first). Dealer only needs 4 pegging points above his 1 guaranteed point to win.
Tall order this hand. How to garner 12 points and allow dealer at most only 3 more pegging points above his 1? Keep either the flush or the run. The flush offers the most points going in(6) and has a possible max of 12. The run only offers 5 points going in, and also has a max of 12. I go for the flush. After the 3 cut, we have 9 points, so we need 3 pegging points. Suggests leading either the 7(hoping he plays an 8 - but here he can win on run making); or lead the 10, hoping he plays a 5, so we can pair, and then maybe score a go later with the 2. I suggest leading the 10. JCM says: Keeping the flush, only the 4 and 9 don't help on the cut. That's 8 cards not helping. Means 47-8 = 39 helpful cuts. Good odds to get a helping starter card. Admittedly, with 2-5-6-7 as a keep, every cut helps. But many of them only add 2 more points(to total 7). Like the 3 cut, or any X cut. You would need to make 5 pegging points, allowing dealer only 3. - So I still go for the flush.
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JQT 4143 votes Joined: October 2008 |
Monday 6:21 AM
Any variation of the 5-6-7- Run Hand can reach a dozen points, but the FLUSH can also reach those Dirty Dozen as well.
And yet the FLUSH starts us off with an Extra Point today, which counts for a LOT, and although we have a few Loser Cuts (4 Cards or 9 Cards that are NOT Spade Suits), we do get a boost from every other Cut. After that Trey Cut, this becomes a Pegging Hand of the Day Puzzle! We need Two More, by Joe, so I'll lead the Ten Card and try to conjure up Two More Holes. We could lose by One or Two, but that's Cribbage! JCM says: Thanks for reminding me that a spade 4 or 9 adds a point. And also that with the 3 cut we have 10 points now, not 9, so we need only 2 pegging points to win. - Gonna run to the kitchen and make me some coffee:-) JQT says: I might even put a 'dash' of coffee in my Bourbon this morning! Note that we actually discarded one of those "loser" 9 Cards; therefore, the odds of getting help with the FLUSH are even further increased. JCM says: I did notice that, but we also discarded a helping 6, so I figured that evens out. JCM says: Thanks for the kind words - always a pleasure reading your comments.
Rosemarie44 says: I like Irish cream Liqueur in my coffee! I don't know if this would help me make better discard and retention decisions if taken in the morning? JCM says: You've got me re-thinking my arithmetic. I said in my comments - "47-8 = 39 helpful cuts". On second thought, that 47 should, I think, be 45, since we know our own 4 cards, the cut, and our 2 discards(I forgot about those.) So the equation should read "45-8 = 37 helpful cuts." Now the one loser 9 was discarded - that pushes the 37 to 38. But one helper 6 was also discarded, pushing the 38 back to 37. So in this hand, keeping the flush, there are 37 helpful cuts(is my math correct?) Dtill good odds to find a helper cut. - And I must remember in future, to start at 45 cards, not 47(ie remember the discards). JCM says: Dtill = Still |
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horus93 1281 votes Joined: December 2017 |
Monday 9:59 AM
Not sure I'd have gotten this answer "over the board" since it's a bit tricky. Working it out on paper I think this is best, most cuts for 10+ and that has to be the greatest consideration at this score. JCM says: Holding 2-5-6-7, cuts of 4,5,6,7 and 8 all produce 10+ points - 17 cards. Holding the flush, cuts of 3,5,6,7,8 and 10 produce 10+ points - 20 cards. At least, that's how I figure it - did I miss something? J,Q,K of spades produce 9 points.(3 cards) horus93 says: Nah I just screwed up! JQT says: One crucial difference is that the FLUSH starts us off with one full extra point, and since we need a Dozen Points to WIN, that single point is over 8% of the distance necessary for us to WIN, and therefore it has significant value. JCM says: I found a mistake of mine. When I said, "Holding 2-5-6-7, cuts of 4,5,6,7 and 8 all produce 10+ points - 17 cards" - the 4 doesn't, but the 2 does. So it should say, " Holding 2-5-6-7, cuts of 2,5,6,7 and 8 all produce 10+ points - 16 cards." I think the cuts for the flush are right. -- JQT is, as usual, right when he points out the flush has a 6-point starting value, where the runs have a 5-point starting value. - (That's the main reason I chose the flush, as well, plus that both flush and run have the same max(12 pts.)) |
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LoneStarPegger 811 votes Joined: January 2008 |
Monday 11:56 AM
Will pay more attention to the flush in future. |
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HalscribCLX 5318 votes Joined: February 2008 |
Monday 12:21 PM
At 109-116* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages for just Hand and Pegging and Win %s are:
_______________Our Offense___Hand_Pegs_Total____Win % 2-5-7-10__8.70+1.67=10.37____44.8 2-5-6-7___8.46+1.74=10.20____35.7 5-6-7-9___8.11+1.22= 9.33____29.2 5-6-7-10__7.85+1.15= 9.00____33.0 The Win %s are the most important and the flush has a significantly higher chance of Winning. So I'll select 6-9 to discard. After the 3 cut I'll lead the 2 and play Offense: Lead__________Our Pegging Pts.______Win % 2__________________1.20_____________32.4 10_________________1.20_____________28.4 7__________________1.03_____________23.8 5__________________0.89_____________15.4 |
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JRCeagle78 1054 votes Joined: June 2016 |
Monday 12:36 PM
I went with the flush, but only because it starts with the most points. I have to have a starter card that is at least a little helpful in order to have a chance. The 3d might give me the extra points I need. I'll lead the 2 in order to put the pegging a little more under my control. |
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Ras2829 5154 votes Joined: November 2008 |
Monday 1:07 PM
Think it pays to flush this day! With these cards or similar, choosing an offense strategy, will always lead the deuce. If choosing defense, would retain the deuce as an escape card. Will take any pegs offered as can't win without picking off some pegs. As dealer needing five pegs to win, would play off forcing me to score 12 with first count. What are chances that n/d can score 12? That's one of four. If turning a Jack, would go for the pegs. Five pegs is a real stretch. JQT says: I decided to lead the Ten Card today, but "saving" the Deuce is perhaps only wise if we needed to peg just One Hole, and not Two Holes. Needing Two Holes, the Deuce Lead gives us a chance to score (15-2) with ANY of our three remaining cards, since any time we lead a card ranked below Five, it allows us as Pone to have at least a crack at that precious (15-2). And all the Dealer Reply cards that allow us to score (15-2) are DIFFERENT than the card ranks that we hold! This means we also have three unique chances to score a PAIR, which also WINS. Very instructional Pegging comments by RAS, JRC, and of course HalscribCLX! JCM says: Been re-thinking my lead after your comment and Halscrib. I'm persuaded now that maybe the 2 lead is better than the 10. Maybe we can pair dealer's 7 or 10 response. My nagging fear is there's less chance for making a "Go" after leading the 2. But dealer has less chance of making points, too. If we lead the 10 he can pair, and we have no immediate comeback. If he 15's, we do have the comeback we need. - I'm thinking in circles here. - Maybe the lead of 2 is best. JCM says: I think JQT responded as I typed the above. He, without knowing it, stopped me going in circles over this. Thanks, JQT and Ras. JCM says: But now I have a new question. In my first response I(mistakenly) thought we needed 3 pegging points. So recommended leading the 10, saving the 2 for a possible 3rd point in the form of a "Go". I can see now where leading the 2 is best when we need just 2 points. So - hypothetically - if we really needed 3 pegging points in this situation(and not just 2) - say we were 1 point further back on the board -should we still lead the 2? JCM says: Maybe we could do another Halscrib analysis. Everything kept the same(all the cards identical) - but the score changed from 109-116* to 108-116*. What would Halscrib say about the best lead with that score? JQT says: Needing to peg Three Holes as Non Dealer would be a big challenge, especially since we can only give up Four Holes to the Dealer in the pursuit: thus, any PAIR risks PAIRS Royal and losing the game (which of course is the case if only needed Two Holes as in the actual puzzle today). But needing Three Holes instead of Two Holes, I would probably lead the Ten Card, just because it allows us to retain our lower-ranking cards. We could probably even justify a 5 Card Lead! Now, if the reason we needed Three Holes was because we started at Hole 108 instead of Hole 109, then I probably would not have retained the FLUSH to begin with, so it really depends on WHY we need that extra point. For all of these reasons, this is what makes this such a good puzzle! - j q t - Ras2829 says: Hi JCM and JQT: Thanks much. Your additions add substance to my post. That's always a very good thing. Wanted to tell jmath714 that he and submitted a mighty fine puzzle though don't see his ink on the site today. JCM says: Thanks for your reply! I agree it's a good puzzle! Why wouldn't you retain the flush starting at 108? I assume you would then decide the run is better. Why? JQT says: For reasons mentioned in my first response above, the FLUSH (especially after a Deuce Lead) is very good at allowing us to peg "a few" points as Pone. Today, "a few" is just what we need! And the FLUSH does start out One Full Point ahead of the RUN, so it does make sense to retain the FLUSH if we begin at Hole 109. Move away another Hole or Two, and these ideas suddenly begin to lose their luster: it is then that the power of the RUN, and its ability to generate MORE TOTAL points (even if it's only after similar or fewer Cuts) than the FLUSH. A FLUSH "works" well when we need "just a few more points," as it is not only deceptive by its composition during the pegging, but due to its nature, each card being different allows it to often peg that much-needed PAIR or (15-2). But don't count on it to peg much more! If and when you really need some "heavy lifting," that is when a RUN, with its potential for turning into a Double RUN, can best do the job. JCM says: Both the run and the flush have a max of 12 points today. Would Halscrib, in your opinion, recommend the run if starting at 108? Ras2829 says: Hi JCM: Will answer in time. Just not this day! Might need a month to sort this out in my aging brain. JCM says: Thanks, Ras. Can we run Halscrib again on this puzzle, this time starting at 108-116*? JQT says: At some distance prior to Hole 109, we should definitely retain the RUN. Whether it's at Hole 108 (debatable) or Hole 107 (almost certain) is a tough decision from my perspective, and I would defer to RAS' ideas (even if we have to wait a whole phreaking month) as opposed to my own guess today. I believe that I can say with some confidence, however, that switching to the RUN will become preferable at some added distance, and yet 'over the board' this kind of decision is something you shall eventually just learn to develop a 'feel for' doing, I think. And, you'll either be right, or wrong! The important thing is to try to be 'right' more often than you are 'wrong' - which is more easily said than done. JCM says: Thanks, JQT. If both run and flush have the same 12-point max, how does the run develop more total points than the flush? Pegging? - Also, can we run Halscrib again? JCM says: Both run and flush have the same max(12 pts) and according to Coeurdelion, the flush has a higher average score(.3 of a pt). So, in today's puzzle, where is the convincing evidence that the run generates more total points than the flush? Shouldn't, in today's puzzle at least, the flush be chosen, regardless of the score? JQT says: This is trending WAY above my pay grade! $ - ) Okay, it's a bit complex how those averages occur, but the FLUSH will tend to produce higher minimums (after all, it starts a Full Point higher) and produce a lower NUMBER of maximums. Therefore, if we needed 14 Points instead of a Dozen Points, I'll wager that the RUN might get us there more often. It's akin to those tricky endgame puzzles in which, say we needed seven holes, and there exists one discard that yields the MOST points, and yet another that can more reliably get us those needed Seven Points. Consider an absurd or extreme example as one of the recent possible hands on this site: (5 5 6 6) was worth a SMALLER average, and yet if we had actually needed Two Dozen Points in order to WIN, then that is precisely the hand we should have probably retained. The fact that the FLUSH today is best at producing an overall Dozen Points (when we include the pegging) does NOT mean it is necessarily the best hand if we needed Fourteen or Fifteen Points! (If you delve deeply into the mathematics of all of this, it has to do with things like the mean, the average, and the standard deviation). Oh, my, I need to rush outside and watch that moon rise, so I'll have to end this right about here... ; - ) JCM says: Thanks for your patience with me, JQT. I must add though, that when you said, "The fact that the FLUSH today is best at producing an overall Dozen Points (when we include the pegging)..." the flush today can produce 12 points several ways WITHOUT counting any pegging. We can discard 9-6, and have the 6 of spades flipped. - But I think that's the only way. There are indeed several ways the run can produce 12 points without counting pegging. - So, if we really need 12 points to have a hope of survival, maybe the run is the best keep. I think I talked my around to agreeing with you :-) JCM says: I would still like to see Halscrib run this hand from 108-116* :-) JCM says: I accidentally contradicted myself. I said,"the flush today can produce 12 points several ways .." - this is wrong. As far as I know, there is only 1 way the flush can produce 12 pts(flip a 6 of spades). I had meant to say that the hand today can produce 12 pts several ways. - Just to correct the record. |
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Ras2829 5154 votes Joined: November 2008 |
Monday 1:08 PM
BTW the final two sentences are hypothetical and refer to the dealer need for pegs. |
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joekayak 1873 votes Joined: May 2016 |
Monday 1:25 PM
The 9 and 6 don't help me. Flush plus any decent cut get me close. It happened. Now for OFF OFF |
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Coeurdelion 5595 votes Joined: October 2007 |
Monday 2:17 PM
2-5-7-10
A: 4x2pts = 8pts 2: 3x2pts = 6pts 3: 4x4pts = 16pts 4: - 5: 3x4pts = 12pts 6: 3x5pts = 15pts 7: 3x2pts = 6pts 8: 4x4pts = 16pts 9: - 10: 3x4pts = 12pts J: 4x2pts = 8pts Q: 4x2pts = 8pts K: 4x2pts = 8pts plus 9xspades =9pts Total 124pts = 124/46 = 2.70 + 6pts = 8.80pts 2-5-6-7 A: 4x2pts = 8pts 2: 3x6pts = 18pts 3: 4x2pts = 8pts 4: 4x3pts = 12pts 5: 3x5pts = 15pts 6: 3x7pts = 21pts 7: 3x7pts = 21pts 8: 4x5pts = 20pts 9: 3x2pts = 6pts 10: 3x2pts = 6pts J: 4x2pts = 8pts Q: 4x2pts = 8pts K: 4x2pts = 8pts Total 159pts = 159/46 = 3.46 + 5pts = 8.46pts Unless there were a big difference in the pegging potential of these two hands, which I don't think there is, then I'll keep the flush and throw 6-9. JQT says: That's the Analysis (nice work) that I was too lazy to perform today! ; - ) JCM says: Thanks! |
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Andy (muesli64) 2223 votes Joined: August 2009 |
Monday 3:06 PM
In my opinion 2-10 is a better throw than 2-9. And much better still over keeping the flush. Why? The 9 is better in hand than 10. Stats agree with me! |
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jmath714 1299 votes Joined: January 2012 |
Monday 6:00 PM
Fun puzzle, an honor to get kudos from a Hall of Famer in Ras. Sat over this one for a little while at club, even reading everyone’s answer, I still don’t have a good feel for this one, though the flush and 2567 seem like the only good options. |
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