July 12, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Power Lineman on ecribbage.com
90-85*  ?
40%
21%
11%
10%
6%
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 189

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

dec
4531 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Friday 3:09 AM
Giving up a five and a Jack (12-17plus crib) not on my list of options. However leading a five might be. dec
Rosemarie44
1276 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Friday 3:22 AM
What else would you retain and discard with today's hand? Start with 4 points and a chance for improvement to 12 points.
wasa
1277 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Friday 3:28 AM
Need to keep opponent's crib small.
Carl Walters
17 votes

Joined: June 2019

   
Friday 3:35 AM
J-8 seems the best bet with only five points in it. Had hoped for a 6/X at the cut but the 9 wasn't too shabby.
mrob2199
84 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Friday 3:43 AM
Obviously not thrilled with today’s cut-I wanted to go in with 6 instead of 4-in case of a cut that kills the hand -with dealer 36 out and me already holding a 7 I’m not overly concerned about my discard of the pair of eights-usually when I’m dealing with a hand like this I ask myself this question-am I more likely to deal myself short with my next deal by breaking it up too conservatively-or am I more likely to give up a huge crib by not playing maximum defense-in this particular hand I think it’s more likely to lose by playing too conservatively with this hold-thus my keep of the 5-5-7-J
zeke76
290 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Friday 3:58 AM
Trying to balk the crib.
JQT
2516 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Friday 4:01 AM
If we can become Next Dealer at or beyond Hole 96, we are in excellent shape. That's only Six Holes away, which is below average, and yet we were dealt a nice arrangement today ... too nice, perhaps.

Still, I think we lose nothing by defending our good position today, and so I'll Toss (8 J) without hesitation. Throw Toss (5 J) or Toss (8 8) at your own risk!

I may lead a 5 Card, just to 'rattle' my opponent. Rattle-Rattle-Rattle!

Interesting Articles Regarding AI and Poker Yesterday: https://gizmodo.com/superhuman-ai-crushes-poker-pros-at-six-player-texas-1836257695 and back in Mid-June: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/robots-are-beating-humans-at-poker/
james500
2191 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Friday 5:16 AM
I need six or more points in this hand to be in position in the next. J-5-5 guarantees me this.
The current dealer is 11 points off the pace, so I'm prepared to risk 8-8 in the full knowledge that the 7 in my hand deprives the crib of a useful card.

Lead the red 5.
Gougie00
3957 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Friday 5:41 AM
A defensive hedge. I am likely to gain position so I will try to give the dealer nothing in the crib. Lead the 8 and ditch the 5s
JCM
64 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Friday 6:12 AM
The score is 90-85*. If 95 is our next target, we only need 5 points. Easy to achieve this with these cards - so defensive play is called for. Hence discard J-8(balking dealer's crib). Maybe even lead a 5.
Jazzselke
1257 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Friday 6:32 AM
Interesting day, most commenters other than Rob and James not willing to give up a pair of eights.My thought here is only an ace or four cut does not improve the hand. If there were more than 2 unhelpful cuts I would consider the eights. Or is this an example of Rob's thinking that separates him from the field?
horus93
468 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Friday 8:49 AM
This is an offensive position (+4/-11). We aren't defending anything. We're trying to avoid falling behind and keep up our momentum. The analogous endgame position would be 115-110*. Would you play defense there? It's very unlikely that even tossing 5-5 will give opponent enough points to catch up. It's much more likely that our cards falter and he wins that way.

Accordingly the only hands worth considering imo are 5-7-8-8 and 5-5-7-J. I like it this way better because it has more cuts for improvement. A bum cut will seriously hurt us and this keep has only 8 compared to 5-5-7-J's 12 (16 if you count the cuts for 7!). Though the averages are the same this hand has about an 83% shot of hitting 8 or more points. The other keep has only a 65% shot!
joekayak
799 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Friday 10:30 AM
Poker these days talks about blockers. My 7 is kin of a blocker to my two 8s that I elect to throw. I'm with Rob. Need to insure being at 96+ for next deal. With dealer at -10 and me holding one of the 7s, I'll go with 8-8 to the crib.
Samgash
282 votes

Joined: November 2016

   
Friday 12:50 PM
Respectfully, I think we do need to have some defensive considerations here. 22-28 points combined from opponent hand, crib, and pegging is hardly unheard of. Unlikely, yes. But tossing J5 or 88 would leave some pretty bad max cribs on the table.

It’s tough because I’d normally be focused on getting as far past 96 as possible here.

I think the balance of 5578 offers a good trade off. Only A, 4 offer insufficient points to get guaranteed position here. The 9 is next worst and places us at 97 minimum.

Pegging looks not great, but lead the 8 methinks. Dump 5s at first opportunity. I could imagine even leading a 5, perhaps saving the 8 for later. That seems unnecessary though. So 8!
JRCeagle78
683 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Friday 1:05 PM
I have watched baseball all of my life and one thing I can say is that you have a better chance in getting a "balk" than a grand slam. Toss the J-8. If I had a larger differential than five points the 8-8 would probably been my discard. It is my gut feeling that the pone is too close to try experimenting. I'll throw him off the track of reading my hand and lead the 5.
Coeurdelion
3885 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Friday 3:03 PM
I think its between 5-5-8-8 (7-J), 5-5-7-8 (8-J) or 5-7-8-8 (5-J):

5-5-8-8: 4pts - 3½pts (Schell: 3.53) = +½pt

5-5-7-8: 4pts - 3½pts (Schell: 3.52) = +½pt

5-7-8-8: 6pts - 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = -1pt

Potential:

5-5-8-8: Improves with 2222, 55, 777, 88 + 15xXs = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 8/10/12pts with all cuts.

5-5-7-8: Improves with 2222, 3333, 55, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 7/8/10/12pts with all cuts.

5-7-8-8: Improves with 2222, 3333, 55, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 10/12/14pts with 2222, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 17 cuts.

Position:

We only need 6pts to reach the 96pt positional hole whilst Dealer is 10pts short of position. So I'll play Defense for the pegging.

Pegging:

None of the hands are ideal for pegging Defense. Perhaps 5-5-8-8 is best.

Summary:

5-5-8-8 and 5-5-7-8 both start with +½pt (1½pts more than 5-7-8-8) but 5-5-7-8 has more cuts for improvement to 7-12pts. So I'll throw a 8-J.
Andy (muesli64)
1545 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Friday 3:37 PM
yes
HalscribCLX
3658 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Friday 3:52 PM
At 90-86* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total____W2 %____W3 %
5-5-7-8___7.65+(-3.39)+(-4.02)= 0.24___16.3____68.8
5-5-7-J___9.11+(-3.33)+(-5.73)= 0.05___23.3____71.2
5-5-8-8___6.70+(-3.50)+(-4.01)=(-0.81)__12.6____61.9
5-7-8-8___9.13+(-2.70)+(-7.72)=(-1.29)__24.6____69.7

Defense______L2 %____L3 %
5-5-7-8_______4.7____16.7
5-5-7-J_______9.4____15.9
5-5-8-8_______4.3____21.0
5-7-8-8______11.8____18.2

5-5-7-8 is best for expected averages by 0.21pt and although its not best for Win %s it is lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select an 8-J to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll lead a 5 and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Pts.
5____________________1.40
7____________________1.22
8____________________1.18
Ras2829
3423 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Friday 10:32 PM
It's all been said - most eloquently by the way. Playing def., def., off. Am with HalscribCLX all the way this day and will lead the 5S and take pegs as offered. N/D has distinct positional advantage here needing to deal from 4th street CPZ (95-99).