July 11, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
74*-82  ?
55%
23%
10%
5%
3%
1%
1%
Total votes: 195

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

dec
4651 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Thursday 3:06 AM
Position wise we need average and plus here to get close or hit the next par. Maybe non dealer took a chance for a good hand and discarded great for us. The hand we hold now might keep them back defensively. dec
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Carl Walters
108 votes

Joined: June 2019

   
Thursday 3:24 AM
I considered, very briefly, throwing J-5 to my crib - very slight chance of a flush. 7-7 however won out. The 4 cut is a pleasant surprise.
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Rosemarie44
1374 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Thursday 3:55 AM
Slight advantage, expected average favor tossing 7-7 over 5-J. This hand has more cuts for improvement although for a maximum of vs. a maximum of 12 respectively.
Expected averages are the combined values of crib plus the expected average hand.
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zeke76
384 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Thursday 4:12 AM
Threw J-5. I think it’s less than a tenth of a point worse than 77 and has a slightly higher max.
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Gougie00
4052 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Thursday 4:29 AM
I tossed myself 77 just in case the opponent tosses a stray 8.
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JCM
262 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Thursday 6:40 AM
Score is 74*-82. If 85 is the next target, we need 11 points. Possibly more, given Opp will likely make some points on his own. Best way seems to be to keep the X-5 15s and put 7-7 in our crib. Both hand and crib will have good potential that way. Take any pegging points offered.
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james500
2285 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Thursday 6:41 AM
I'd discard J-5, although J-Q intrigues me.
Q reply to a led X.
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horus93
546 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Thursday 7:44 AM
Scratched my head a bit between 7-7 and 5-J but I figure the potential for a run with touching J-Q in the same place + the magic 11 and sweet 16 should swing me to toss the 7-7.

I'd play "optimally" to the cut. We have 10 known points and want to reach or pass 86 for next deal but we also want to keep opponent as short of 96 as we can.

Despite this strange myth that 7's and 8's are inherently dangerous and pone will never throw them to you 7-7 can yield a very nice crib in my experience.
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joekayak
896 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Thursday 9:07 AM
Throw an Q-J in the crib "gives up" 2 points to keep alive a slim chance at a double run. We're a little (a very little) beyond our CPZ. I'll keep the points alive. Throw 7-7 in the crib. I agree with OPT pegging with a bias to DEF.
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JQT
2611 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Thursday 9:21 AM
Even though we seem to be trailing by Eight Holes on Third Street, we're really not in too bad shape here.

We are currently the Dealer, and we are also a few holes beyond our Third Street 'par' Hole, which means that we should be able to reach the Finish Line after the Next Cycle.

From Cribbage "Twenty-Six Theory," we know that a "Cycle" consists of an average of about Sixteen Points as the Dealer (Pegging plus Hand plus Crib) and then an average of about Ten Holes as Pone (Pegging plus First Hand Show), and these add up to an average of Twenty-Six Points.

Now, if we add those Twenty-six Points twice, or Fifty-Two Holes, to our Current Score of Hole 74, we get 126, which is Five Holes beyond VICTORY! That means that, as long as our opponent doesn't go out FIRST, we should become, on average, the Non Dealer (with First Hand Show) at around Hole 116.

This is not a trivial relative position however, because while we don't really need any extra points, we also cannot afford to fall behind our averages. And most importantly, we cannot allow our opponent to greatly exceed her or his averages as well.

We have at least a few good options today: We could Toss (7 7) and probably not do too poorly, or we could Toss (J Q) and retain the Low Bunch, or we could jettison something more powerful into our own Crib such as Toss (5 J).

Over the past decade, I've written thousands of words about those three similar "Touching Card" tosses that contain no 'static' points to begin with, and they are Toss (3 4), Toss (6 7), and of course what's pertinent to today's puzzle, Toss (J Q). What's fascinating about these "start from nothing" discards on EITHER SIDE OF THE BOARD is that they average to produce more points than several of the 'weaker' PAIRS.

Thus, in both opponent's Crib or our own Crib, Toss (J Q) will produce a higher Crib Value than Toss (K K) or even perhaps Toss (T T)! And this is even more powerful with those other aforementioned Toss (3 4) and Toss (6 7) discards. Over the board, it's not quite as pronounced of an effect, but it's still very much the case in that throwing "touching" cards can be more dangerous in some instances than throwing a low-risk PAIR.

All that in mind, it appears that we get great 'synergy' today if we Toss (5 J). If our own position were a bit more secure, or if our Opponent's position were better, I'd probably Toss (J Q) without hesitation today. But I have a fondness (some call it an obsession) with getting a 5 Card into my Crib, so let's follow through and do it! Other than having to 'ditch' a potentially dangerous 'Lone' Ace, I see no real difficulties. I'll probably lead a 7 Card from our 'PEAR' and look to 'dump' Mr. Ace as soon as it's safe to do so.
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mfetchCT425
412 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Thursday 10:38 AM
I originally mistakenly thought we were pone and would have tossed A-Q. As dealer, I like the 7-7 toss. It’s one of the higher “pair” tosses to own crib, behind only the 5-5 and 3-3 I believe. I also like the touching face cards which gives us a chance for a hand of 9 or 10 with the right face. Decent variety of cards with “10”-A magic 11. Would like to try and hold pone back as far as possible from 4th street position, so will only take safe pegs here, especially with favorable cut for 9 hand.
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JRCeagle78
740 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Thursday 10:39 AM
Although I contemplated 7-7, I reckoned that the pone was not going to help me very much. I have a better chance with a pone discard of K-T,X-3 or X-6.
With the 4s starter card there is also the possibility of the pone being caught "asleep at the switch" and a 2-spade discard.
My position on the board is not optimal, but it is not abysmal either. This hand can both peg okay and limit the pone's pegging also. Both the Ace and Queen can be used as an escape card if necessary.
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dgergens
399 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Thursday 10:47 AM
The overall hand/crib score is the same. I just prefer pegging with the A,7,7,Q over the A,5,J,Q.
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wasa
1379 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Thursday 1:08 PM
Unlike many, 5-J to my crib as it's one of the best discards.
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Andy (muesli64)
1599 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Thursday 3:31 PM
7-7 or J-5 minimal point difference. The real question is which hand pegs best?
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Coeurdelion
3976 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Thursday 4:20 PM
Three choices I think - A-5-7-7 (J-Q), A-7-7-Q (5-J) and A-5-J-Q (7-7):

A-5-7-7: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = 8¾pts

A-7-7-Q: 4pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 11pts

A-5-J-Q: 4pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.92) = 9¾pts

Potential:

A-5-7-7: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 555, 6666, 77, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/10/12pts with AAA, 2222, 3333, 6666, 77, 8888 = 21 cuts.

A-7-7-Q: Improves with AAA, 555, 77, 8888, QQQ = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.6% up to 8/12pts with AAA, 77, 8888 = 9 cuts.

A-5-J-Q: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555 + 14xXs = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/9/10pts 4444, 555 + 14xXs = 21 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Position:

We're 4pts ahead of positional hole and Pone is 4pts short of where they would like to be. So I'll play Defense for the pegging.

Pegging:

I think all three hands will peg well but I think A-5-7-7 will peg slightly best.

Summary:

A-7-7-Q starts with 2¼pts more than A-5-7-7 but this has many more cuts for improvement and 21 cuts for 8-12pts. Also it should peg best so I think it should catch up the 2¼pts. So I'll throw J-Q.
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HalscribCLX
3753 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Thursday 7:44 PM
At 74*-82 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
A-5-J-Q___6.67+(-2.07)+5.77=10.37____20.0____40.5
A-7-7-Q___5.39+(-2.13)+6.82=10.08____15.7____39.4
A-7-7-J___5.63+(-2.13)+6.48= 9.98____16.3____40.2
A-5-7-7___7.09+(-2.22)+4.65= 9.52____16.9____38.8

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
A-5-J-Q_______32.3____46.8
A-7-7-Q_______29.7____48.3
A-7-7-J_______29.6____47.5
A-5-7-7_______31.7____49.0

A-5-J-Q is best for expected averages by 0.29pt and is appreciably best for Win % and although its not best for Loss %s I'll still select 7-7 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll play a Safe strategy to the lead.
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JCM
262 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Thursday 9:05 PM
Halacrib says one thing, Coeurdelion's software another. I've see these 2 disagree before. Which is more reliable?
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