July 9, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
114-117*  ?
38%
37%
9%
6%
3%
3%
1%
0%
Total votes: 195
mrob2199
1436 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:53 AM
I don’t want to hold 5-6-6-7 here-the worst pegging hand as a lpone IMO-with the dealer only needing 4 and me needing 7,his strategy will be all out offense-so he’s definitely keeping a 5 and probably lower cards-so in this case a middle card hold could work for us-obviously the jack cut greatly diminishes our chance of winning here-I would lead the 8-if they have a 7 or 8 they will eventually get it in anyway-hopefully they will have all cards under a 6-then their first play will reveal a great deal of what they are holding
JQT says: excellent explanation!
LoneStarPegger says: Thanks for the insight!
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:09 AM
A difficult assignment had tougher with the Jack starter. I wasn't dealt a low card to keep and lead. Lead the 8, ditch the 5.
zeke76
1397 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:20 AM
Heels?!? Ugh.

Basically what MRob said.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:21 AM
I think these higher-ranking cards can peg more defensively, while getting the job done today.
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: With tongue in cheek, wouldn't 5-6-8-K peg more defensively. Yeah, wouldn't get the job done! Right?
JQT says: After that Jack Cut, with Dealer at Hole 119, what do we *wish* we had as Pone today? Maybe Four Aces does the job! Sadly, we weren't dealt ANY! Let's therefore just try to reduce that point spread (uproarious laughter ensues).
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:22 AM
I figured that we would need to hold a double run at this position today needing 7 points to peg and count out. The task was difficult before the cut of a Jack. Let's see what Halscrib and Ras choose.
mrob2199 says: Rosemarie is there any reason why you kept the double run with the 5 instead of the 8? I think the 5 is much more dangerous for you to keep here-just think from the dealers perspective-if he has to peg 4 points to go out,do you think a 5 or 8 is a better pegging card? I would pick the 5 every time
Rosemarie44 says: Yes, keeping alone 5 could be more dangerous here. I just didn't think that I would need to hold 10 points. Yes, a five is definitely a better pegging card that an 8. In todays situation we need to hold dealer back as impossible as it seems with he/she who only needs two points now after the jack.
mrob2199 says: Well holding 8 or 10 is immaterial here-as long as we have over 7-and every cut but an ace will give you at least 10 anyways-I think the best way to win now(after that horrible jack cut) is lead the 8-hope it’s safe and dump a 6 next-maybe dealer will use up 2 cards for only a go and then we have the safe 7 card to lead back-not great odds but at least it’s a plan
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:25 AM
If they have matching cards we are probably toast. If they do not we just be all right so eight lead it be. defense. dec
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:57 AM
Seems my run of being "out of step" continues.

Wanted to keep the King as an escape card, leaving me the choice between whether to keep 6-7-8 or 5-6-7 with it. 6-7-8-K won't be worth enough after cuts of 3,4,T,J or Q, 5-6-7-K only comes up short after an Ace cut.
Kept the 6 to match the King, and will lead it.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:05 AM
I'm with James in the extreme minority. But after having my opponent peg out from 117 last night, I am allergic to keeping hands that will likely peg 4 for dealer. As james pointed out, all cuts except an A give me 7 or more. And lead a six and hope. OOPS Bad Bad Bad cut. :-(
joekayak says: For those keeping 8766 or 8765. I have seen too many of these turn into 4+ pegs for dealer.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:09 AM
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:17 AM
I wanted to keep 5,6,7,K for defensive pegging, but that means I must peg 2 to win. Not confident enough in my ability to make that happen. Had to go with a sure score, and then decided along JQT comments, and thinking dealer would hold a 5 if they had one.
mfetchCT425
1400 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:36 AM
Kept this straight where every cut gives us enough points to go out, and would lead the 8. Learning moment for me after reading above comments. Probably better to rid oneself of the 5 in this situation. The J cut is a killer though.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:10 AM
Learning for me, too Safer to abandon the 5 and keep the necessary points with 6678. Lead the 6. If he doesn't pair(and win thereby) Follow with the other 6.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:29 AM
I play weekly in a club where there is a house rule that if a J is cut and dealer is in the last 5-point part(116-120), the dealer does not get the 2 points.
horus93
1282 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:44 AM
Definitely want to start with enough to go out so it's between 5-6-6-7, 6-6-7-8, and 5-6-7-8.

I like not holding a 5, I also like being able to lead a 6 and triple it if paired. I'd be more worried about dealer getting a run than I would about him having the fourth six. Maybe thinking in terms of immediate losers is short-sighted, though. Not gonna get to triple it with that cut anyway.
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 9:58 AM
Have run queries on this hand and similar from this and similar positions. There are no good defensive choices among these six cards. The most defensive is 5-6-8-K. BTW any combination from these six cards gives up very near three pegs defensively and most choices give up more than three. With dealer needing two, this game is likely lost. In end-game situations, the rationale utilized at other points on the board is often of little relevance. Having said that, will lead the six although statistically there is no advantage. There are six cards that can score on the 6 lead and there are six cards that can score on the 7 or 8. It was a better puzzle before the Jack cut. Who knew?
Ras2829 says: BTW agree with mrob2199 that dealer will attempt to hold cards with ranks of A-5. That's the reason I choose to lead one of the sixes as the bottom of my hand is likely to be closer to what dealer is playing. Will likely drop the six as the second card played also. Will lead the 6C although for reasons indicated faking the flush is not on the front burner.
mrob2199 says: Ras,I agree we need a lot of luck to win this game now that the jack has been cut-one of the reasons I prefer the 8 lead over the 6 is having the luxury of dumping a 6 on the second play while holding my 7,which I now know is a safe card-if I get lucky and have the dealer use an extra card for the go,I will now win the game because my 7 is safe-if you dump your 2 sixes immediately and get dealer to use 3 cards for his go,you could still lose the game because you don’t know if he has a 7 or 8 remaining-once again we still need a lot of luck to get to that point but it would be a shame to lose it like that
Ras2829 says: Hi mrob2199: Appreciate what you have to say here although would still lead from the bottom of the hand thinking that best to rid hand of cards closer to those possible small cards 3-4-5 likely to be held by dealer in end-game pegging scenarios. BTW one tip for those looking to improve their pegging games. If needing 2-4 pegs when dealing with an option of holding two mid cards hold 6-7, 6-8, 7-9, or 8-9 and you have all mid-cards covered in the pegging. If you retain 6-9 or 7-8, you miss half the mid-card offerings.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 1:16 PM
5-6-7-8 is guaranteed to hold enough and I think with this hand with our pegging we should stop Dealer pegging.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 1:41 PM
At 114-117* playing a Bold strategy the Dealer Peg Out % and the Hold Enough %s are:

Bold________Dlr Peg Out %______Hold Out %
5-6-7-8________38.5______________100.0
6-6-7-8________39.4______________100.0
5-6-6-7________53.3______________100.0

5-6-7-8 has very slightly lower chance of Dealer Pegging Out so I'll select 6C-K to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead the 6 and play Defense:

Lead________Dlr's Pegging Pts.____Loss %s
5_________________(-0.94)__________46.8
6_________________(-0.99)__________45.3
7_________________(-1.06)__________47.7
8_________________(-1.14)__________52.0

Although the 5 lead has the slightly lower pegs for Dealer the 6 lead has least chance of losing on the pegging.
horus93 says: Does a 5 lead really have a better shot than a 7 or 8 lead? I don't think I'll ever get these right...
JQT says: I believe those Dealer Pegging Points are a composite of forecast Pone Pegging minus Dealer Pegging. Thus, those numbers can be deceptive, because in an End Game such as this, it's the ABSOLUTE Dealer Pegging that matters, and this is why Loss Percentages are more crucial. That said, I think our chances of losing AFTER the Jack Cut here are probably much higher, perhaps about 85%, and perhaps RAS can chime in how often even a motivated Pone can restrict Dealer Pegging to just One Point.
horus93 says: I was talking about loss %'s though! That seems almost incredible
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Never tracked dealer - end-game pegging. Suspect at other places on the board dealer gets that one peg in 1/10 cases. In end-game where only concern of dealer is to hold the cards with the greatest pegging value, believe it would be like 1/20.
Ras2829 says: Hi horus93: The 5 is often a better lead in end-game and has a potentially lower value that many other cards since dealer is not likely to retain X-pointers. Don't think HalscribCLX will get back to you. Having said that, note that the cribbot led the 6 even though the five is potentially the better lead.
Ras2829 says: It must be that the cribbot calculates dealer peg-out percentages prior to the cut of the Jack. Dealer at that point needs 4 pegs. Then something around 40% peg-out makes sense.