July 9, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
114-117*  ?
38%
37%
9%
6%
3%
3%
1%
0%
Total votes: 195

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

mrob2199
84 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 3:53 AM
I don’t want to hold 5-6-6-7 here-the worst pegging hand as a lpone IMO-with the dealer only needing 4 and me needing 7,his strategy will be all out offense-so he’s definitely keeping a 5 and probably lower cards-so in this case a middle card hold could work for us-obviously the jack cut greatly diminishes our chance of winning here-I would lead the 8-if they have a 7 or 8 they will eventually get it in anyway-hopefully they will have all cards under a 6-then their first play will reveal a great deal of what they are holding
Gougie00
3957 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 4:09 AM
A difficult assignment had tougher with the Jack starter. I wasn't dealt a low card to keep and lead. Lead the 8, ditch the 5.
zeke76
290 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Tuesday 4:20 AM
Heels?!? Ugh.

Basically what MRob said.
JQT
2516 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 4:21 AM
I think these higher-ranking cards can peg more defensively, while getting the job done today.
Rosemarie44
1276 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 4:22 AM
I figured that we would need to hold a double run at this position today needing 7 points to peg and count out. The task was difficult before the cut of a Jack. Let's see what Halscrib and Ras choose.
dec
4531 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 4:25 AM
If they have matching cards we are probably toast. If they do not we just be all right so eight lead it be. defense. dec
james500
2191 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 4:57 AM
Seems my run of being "out of step" continues.

Wanted to keep the King as an escape card, leaving me the choice between whether to keep 6-7-8 or 5-6-7 with it. 6-7-8-K won't be worth enough after cuts of 3,4,T,J or Q, 5-6-7-K only comes up short after an Ace cut.
Kept the 6 to match the King, and will lead it.
joekayak
799 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Tuesday 5:05 AM
I'm with James in the extreme minority. But after having my opponent peg out from 117 last night, I am allergic to keeping hands that will likely peg 4 for dealer. As james pointed out, all cuts except an A give me 7 or more. And lead a six and hope. OOPS Bad Bad Bad cut. :-(
joekayak
799 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Tuesday 5:09 AM
dgergens
375 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Tuesday 5:17 AM
I wanted to keep 5,6,7,K for defensive pegging, but that means I must peg 2 to win. Not confident enough in my ability to make that happen. Had to go with a sure score, and then decided along JQT comments, and thinking dealer would hold a 5 if they had one.
mfetchCT425
344 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 5:36 AM
Kept this straight where every cut gives us enough points to go out, and would lead the 8. Learning moment for me after reading above comments. Probably better to rid oneself of the 5 in this situation. The J cut is a killer though.
JCM
64 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Tuesday 6:10 AM
Learning for me, too Safer to abandon the 5 and keep the necessary points with 6678. Lead the 6. If he doesn't pair(and win thereby) Follow with the other 6.
JCM
64 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Tuesday 6:29 AM
I play weekly in a club where there is a house rule that if a J is cut and dealer is in the last 5-point part(116-120), the dealer does not get the 2 points.
horus93
468 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Tuesday 6:44 AM
Definitely want to start with enough to go out so it's between 5-6-6-7, 6-6-7-8, and 5-6-7-8.

I like not holding a 5, I also like being able to lead a 6 and triple it if paired. I'd be more worried about dealer getting a run than I would about him having the fourth six. Maybe thinking in terms of immediate losers is short-sighted, though. Not gonna get to triple it with that cut anyway.
Ras2829
3423 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 9:58 AM
Have run queries on this hand and similar from this and similar positions. There are no good defensive choices among these six cards. The most defensive is 5-6-8-K. BTW any combination from these six cards gives up very near three pegs defensively and most choices give up more than three. With dealer needing two, this game is likely lost. In end-game situations, the rationale utilized at other points on the board is often of little relevance. Having said that, will lead the six although statistically there is no advantage. There are six cards that can score on the 6 lead and there are six cards that can score on the 7 or 8. It was a better puzzle before the Jack cut. Who knew?
Coeurdelion
3885 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 1:16 PM
5-6-7-8 is guaranteed to hold enough and I think with this hand with our pegging we should stop Dealer pegging.
HalscribCLX
3658 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 1:41 PM
At 114-117* playing a Bold strategy the Dealer Peg Out % and the Hold Enough %s are:

Bold________Dlr Peg Out %______Hold Out %
5-6-7-8________38.5______________100.0
6-6-7-8________39.4______________100.0
5-6-6-7________53.3______________100.0

5-6-7-8 has very slightly lower chance of Dealer Pegging Out so I'll select 6C-K to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead the 6 and play Defense:

Lead________Dlr's Pegging Pts.____Loss %s
5_________________(-0.94)__________46.8
6_________________(-0.99)__________45.3
7_________________(-1.06)__________47.7
8_________________(-1.14)__________52.0

Although the 5 lead has the slightly lower pegs for Dealer the 6 lead has least chance of losing on the pegging.