July 8, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by King Richard
55-55*  ?
58%
15%
11%
5%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 203

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

JQT
2611 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Monday 3:09 AM
Richard the King poses a great question today: shall we relinquish Toss (5 Q) 'over the board' in order to attempt to reach a Dozen Points with any Ten Card (TTTT, JJJJ, QQQ, KKKK) or possibly get even more such as Sixteen Points for a Double RUN after (AAA, 222, 33) or perhaps Fourteen Points after any 9 Card Cut (9999). That's twenty-seven cuts that deliver a Dozen Points or more!

Otherwise, we could Toss (3 Q) or we could even Toss (A 5), but I suppose if I am going to say 'good-bye' to a 5 Card, I may as well retain the Double RUN. And although chucking the "High and Low" cards can often be an acceptable 'compromise' solution in Cribbage, I also dislike Toss (A Q) here. Therefore, I think it's between Toss (5 Q) and Toss (3 Q) today.

What about our POSITION? We would like very much to become Next Dealer at or beyond Hole 70. Wish me luck, because Fifteen Points is Five Holes above average. But this arrangement does probably constitute a better-than-average hand.

People who follow me closely (I think there are still perhaps one or two of you...) know of my disdain for the Keep (A 2 3 5) hand. I don't know why I dislike it so much, but my loathing of such cards probably stems from being 'burned' so many times by such a hand, not just in total count, but in the pegging as well.

While Toss (3 Q) does appear to be a relatively safe(r) discard, I am leaning toward Toss (5 Q) today, mostly due to our precarious position. Our Opponent has already acquired an adequate position, and as such, also currently enjoys being the Dealer, so we need some way to turn this whole fiasco around.

While Toss (5 Q) could only make things much worse, it has the opposite ability to also make things a lot better, so let's focus upon that.
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dec
4651 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 3:24 AM
Two fives no , one five I can "deal" with. Non dealer has to take these chances with potential of twelve to sixteen. Offense. dec
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james500
2285 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 3:24 AM
Too cowardly/unwise to choose Q-5, so A-5 it is.

AAA,222,33,4444 or any of 15*X score 10+ (27/46).

Lovely cut, 3d lead.
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Rosemarie44
1374 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 3:27 AM
If I am to play my position first and be at 70 or above for the next hand 5-Q it is.
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Gougie00
4052 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 5:53 AM
Its win or lose right here.
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mfetchCT425
412 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Monday 5:58 AM
Will hold the double run to have any chance to reach good position coming down third street. Will lead from power with one of my 3s.
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JCM
262 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Monday 6:32 AM
Want to be at 70 at end of this hand. So Keep the double run. Si discard Q-5. Peg aggressively.
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RubyTuesday
224 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Monday 6:44 AM
Too much of a coward to throw Q 5. Am feeling rather silly now!
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horus93
546 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Monday 6:51 AM
This is a "purely positional" puzzle imo. At -5/+11 with a sweet double run it's full steam ahead. After the cut let's try to be dealing past 70 for next hand. I don't care at all what dealer scores as long as it's not in the ballpark of 30 points!
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Jazzselke
1319 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Monday 8:49 AM
Playing our position first, goodbye 5Q. Opponent shouldn't get to 85 even with our toss, so hopefully we will steal the advantage here.
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King Richard
2784 votes

Joined: March 2009

Monday 10:53 AM
From a recent playoff match where I was ahead 2-1 in a best of 5. Why not try to get in dealer position on 3rd Street? A bystander/friend argued against my play. Fortunately the Royal Guillotine was in the shop for its 5,000-head servicing so no blood was spilled. Just wanted to see what my DCH friends thought. Thank you!
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joekayak
896 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Monday 11:09 AM
Hate to throw any 5 in dealers crib. But must strive mightily to get to 69 or close. Many cuts for 12 to get to 67. A few cuts for 15 or 16. Bingo! After the cut OFF OFF
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Goatman
924 votes

Joined: March 2017

   
Monday 12:53 PM
Dump the Q5 and peg like a mad man...want to get to my position.
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Ras2829
3516 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 2:28 PM
At hole 55, will play my position alone. Knowing that I have 15 points, it's off., off., off. Get on down the board with upcoming deal in or beyond 3rd Street CPZ (69-73). Just too many cards that give me 12 or more points. Lead a trey and take any pegs offered. Horus93 offers the insight necessary to understand the lead of a trey.
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Coeurdelion
3976 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 2:58 PM
I think its between 2-3-3-Q (A-5), 2-3-5-Q (A-3) or A-2-3-3 (5-Q):

2-3-3-Q: 6pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.01) = -¼pt

2-3-5-Q: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.07) = -1pt

A-2-3-3: 8pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.34) = +½pt

Potential:

2-3-3-Q: Improves with AAA, 222, 33, 4444, 555, 7777, 9999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 10/12pts with AAA, 222, 33, 4444 + 15xXs = 27 cuts.

2-3-5-Q: Improves with AAA, 222, 33, 4444, 555, 7777, 8888 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 7/8/10pts with AAA, 222, 33, 4444, 555 + 15xXs = 30 cuts.

A-2-3-3: Improves with AAA, 222, 33, 4444, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 12/14/15/16pts with AAA, 222, 33, 9999 + 15xXs = 27 cuts.

Position:

We need 15pts to get into position for next deal so I'll play Offense for the pegging.

Pegging:

All three hands should peg well but I think A-2-3-3 will peg best.

Summary:

A-2-3-3 has a starting value ¾pt higher than the next best and has the most cuts for improvement. It also has the highest maximum with 27 cuts for 12-16pts and it ought to peg best so I'll throw the 5-Q.
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HalscribCLX
3753 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 3:40 PM
At 55-55* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

___________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W4 %____W5 %
A-2-3-3___11.87+2.07+(-7.59)=6.35____13.9____43.7
2-3-3-5____6.91+2.41+(-4.15)=5.17_____6.3____30.1
2-3-3-Q____9.48+1.70+(-6.12)=5.06_____7.9____34.7
A-2-3-5*___6.83+2.02+(-4.04)=4.81_____5.0____27.6
2-3-5-Q____7.15+1.61+(-4.39)=4.37_____5.0____27.8

Offense______L4 %____L5 %
A-2-3-3______10.5____29.6
2-3-3-5_______5.5____31.4
2-3-3-Q_______6.8____32.1
A-2-3-5*______5.9____33.8
2-3-5-Q_______5.8____33.3

* unsuited 3-Q

A-2-3-3 is best for expected averages by 1.18pts and it is very much best for Win %s. It is worst for Loss %s because of the risk of the 5-Q but even so I'll select this to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead a 3 and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Pts.
3___________________2.30
2___________________1.65
A___________________1.41
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