July 8, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by King Richard
55-55*  ?
58%
58%
15%
15%
11%
11%
5%
5%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 203
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4529 votes)

Monday 3:09 AM
Richard the King poses a great question today: shall we relinquish Toss (5 Q) 'over the board' in order to attempt to reach a Dozen Points with any Ten Card (TTTT, JJJJ, QQQ, KKKK) or possibly get even more such as Sixteen Points for a Double RUN after (AAA, 222, 33) or perhaps Fourteen Points after any 9 Card Cut (9999). That's twenty-seven cuts that deliver a Dozen Points or more!

Otherwise, we could Toss (3 Q) or we could even Toss (A 5), but I suppose if I am going to say 'good-bye' to a 5 Card, I may as well retain the Double RUN. And although chucking the "High and Low" cards can often be an acceptable 'compromise' solution in Cribbage, I also dislike Toss (A Q) here. Therefore, I think it's between Toss (5 Q) and Toss (3 Q) today.

What about our POSITION? We would like very much to become Next Dealer at or beyond Hole 70. Wish me luck, because Fifteen Points is Five Holes above average. But this arrangement does probably constitute a better-than-average hand.

People who follow me closely (I think there are still perhaps one or two of you...) know of my disdain for the Keep (A 2 3 5) hand. I don't know why I dislike it so much, but my loathing of such cards probably stems from being 'burned' so many times by such a hand, not just in total count, but in the pegging as well.

While Toss (3 Q) does appear to be a relatively safe(r) discard, I am leaning toward Toss (5 Q) today, mostly due to our precarious position. Our Opponent has already acquired an adequate position, and as such, also currently enjoys being the Dealer, so we need some way to turn this whole fiasco around.

While Toss (5 Q) could only make things much worse, it has the opposite ability to also make things a lot better, so let's focus upon that.
JQT says: The Trey Cut gives us Fifteen Points, and we are IN THE ZONE! And let's not stop there, because every point we peg should therefore increase our odds of reaching the Finish Line a whole 'cycle' sooner than had we not reached Hole 70 as Next Dealer. Each point we can peg here is probably worth more to us than a similar number of pegs scored by the Dealer, so ... ONWARD HO!
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6870 votes)

Monday 3:24 AM
Two fives no , one five I can "deal" with. Non dealer has to take these chances with potential of twelve to sixteen. Offense. dec
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4358 votes)

Monday 3:24 AM
Too cowardly/unwise to choose Q-5, so A-5 it is.

AAA,222,33,4444 or any of 15*X score 10+ (27/46).

Lovely cut, 3d lead.
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2254 votes)

Monday 3:27 AM
If I am to play my position first and be at 70 or above for the next hand 5-Q it is.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6184 votes)

Monday 5:53 AM
Its win or lose right here.
mfetchCT425

Joined: February 2009 (1642 votes)

Monday 5:58 AM
Will hold the double run to have any chance to reach good position coming down third street. Will lead from power with one of my 3s.
JCM

Joined: April 2019 (910 votes)

Monday 6:32 AM
Want to be at 70 at end of this hand. So Keep the double run. Si discard Q-5. Peg aggressively.
JCM says: Si = So I
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1196 votes)

Monday 6:44 AM
Too much of a coward to throw Q 5. Am feeling rather silly now!
horus93

Joined: December 2017 (1330 votes)

Monday 6:51 AM
This is a "purely positional" puzzle imo. At -5/+11 with a sweet double run it's full steam ahead. After the cut let's try to be dealing past 70 for next hand. I don't care at all what dealer scores as long as it's not in the ballpark of 30 points!
horus93 says: and I'd lead a 3 into the magic 5, or maybe even snag a triple from an aggressive opponent, or from a cautious opponent who's holding absolute crap in his hand and must peg despite his nice starting position.
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2871 votes)

Monday 8:49 AM
Playing our position first, goodbye 5Q. Opponent shouldn't get to 85 even with our toss, so hopefully we will steal the advantage here.
King Richard

Joined: March 2009 (2825 votes)

Monday 10:53 AM
From a recent playoff match where I was ahead 2-1 in a best of 5. Why not try to get in dealer position on 3rd Street? A bystander/friend argued against my play. Fortunately the Royal Guillotine was in the shop for its 5,000-head servicing so no blood was spilled. Just wanted to see what my DCH friends thought. Thank you!
King Richard says: My play was discard Q5 and it blew up into huge dealer crib.
Jazzselke says: How could anyone argue with the King? Especially one with a heavy duty guillotine!
zeke76 says: Which of the three are thee?
joekayak

Joined: May 2016 (1877 votes)

Monday 11:09 AM
Hate to throw any 5 in dealers crib. But must strive mightily to get to 69 or close. Many cuts for 12 to get to 67. A few cuts for 15 or 16. Bingo! After the cut OFF OFF
Goatman

Joined: March 2017 (2558 votes)

Monday 12:53 PM
Dump the Q5 and peg like a mad man...want to get to my position.
Ras2829 says: Hi Goatman: Been missing you as it's been a while since seeing your comments here. Hoppe you had a great Independence Day!
Goatman says: Been busy getting the house ready to sell. Kentucky is calling me.
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5496 votes)

Monday 2:28 PM
At hole 55, will play my position alone. Knowing that I have 15 points, it's off., off., off. Get on down the board with upcoming deal in or beyond 3rd Street CPZ (69-73). Just too many cards that give me 12 or more points. Lead a trey and take any pegs offered. Horus93 offers the insight necessary to understand the lead of a trey.
Ras2829 says: BTW my second choice would have ben 2-3-3-5. Just couldn't do that at hole 55. Would have given serious thought if at hole 65.
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes)

Monday 2:58 PM
I think its between 2-3-3-Q (A-5), 2-3-5-Q (A-3) or A-2-3-3 (5-Q):

2-3-3-Q: 6pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.01) = -¼pt

2-3-5-Q: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.07) = -1pt

A-2-3-3: 8pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.34) = +½pt

Potential:

2-3-3-Q: Improves with AAA, 222, 33, 4444, 555, 7777, 9999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 10/12pts with AAA, 222, 33, 4444 + 15xXs = 27 cuts.

2-3-5-Q: Improves with AAA, 222, 33, 4444, 555, 7777, 8888 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 7/8/10pts with AAA, 222, 33, 4444, 555 + 15xXs = 30 cuts.

A-2-3-3: Improves with AAA, 222, 33, 4444, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 12/14/15/16pts with AAA, 222, 33, 9999 + 15xXs = 27 cuts.

Position:

We need 15pts to get into position for next deal so I'll play Offense for the pegging.

Pegging:

All three hands should peg well but I think A-2-3-3 will peg best.

Summary:

A-2-3-3 has a starting value ¾pt higher than the next best and has the most cuts for improvement. It also has the highest maximum with 27 cuts for 12-16pts and it ought to peg best so I'll throw the 5-Q.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5713 votes)

Monday 3:40 PM
At 55-55* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

___________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W4 %____W5 %
A-2-3-3___11.87+2.07+(-7.59)=6.35____13.9____43.7
2-3-3-5____6.91+2.41+(-4.15)=5.17_____6.3____30.1
2-3-3-Q____9.48+1.70+(-6.12)=5.06_____7.9____34.7
A-2-3-5*___6.83+2.02+(-4.04)=4.81_____5.0____27.6
2-3-5-Q____7.15+1.61+(-4.39)=4.37_____5.0____27.8

Offense______L4 %____L5 %
A-2-3-3______10.5____29.6
2-3-3-5_______5.5____31.4
2-3-3-Q_______6.8____32.1
A-2-3-5*______5.9____33.8
2-3-5-Q_______5.8____33.3

* unsuited 3-Q

A-2-3-3 is best for expected averages by 1.18pts and it is very much best for Win %s. It is worst for Loss %s because of the risk of the 5-Q but even so I'll select this to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead a 3 and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Pts.
3___________________2.30
2___________________1.65
A___________________1.41