June 17, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by James500
83-94*  ?
58%
17%
11%
4%
3%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 210
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Monday 3:29 AM
I don't believe tossing 2-3 will help us as much as helping the dealer who is already 11 points ahead on the board. This flush increasing with every cut.
Looking forward to others comments on today's hand. Nice one james500.
Ras2829 says: Hi Rosemarie44: Like your thinking on this hand. Just can't toss that 2-3 in this position.
Rosemarie44 says: Thank you and good morning, Ras. Very risky tossing 2-3 today.
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:56 AM
Defense and acourse some offense. Just something about that 8-2 discard I am not big on. Perhaps that a combinations of fifteens could hit on that one. Keeping 9-10 might be a great hit but I went for cuts that would add to my hand and hopefully not theirs. I would do this live especially with them at 94. Playing with a better chance to win hopefully.Holding tight on the pegging, no pegs- three lead. dec
zeke76
1396 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Monday 4:12 AM
Willing to risk the 23 for more points.
Guest says: consider a new game
mrob2199
1435 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Monday 4:56 AM
Tough spot here-we need points to get into better position but have to very wary of discarding with dealer only 27 out-my basic philosophy here is that it’s easier to be aggressive with my deal next hand and try to steal a few points there than it is to be aggressive here and have to defend the opponent being closer to the finish line with first count next hand-thus I’m not going to risk the 2-3 discard to keep the pretty 5-8-9-10 flush-with the 3-5–9-10-you are guaranteed at least 8 points with a safe lead of a 3 that gets you 2 more if matched-not very worried about the 2-8 discard-if the dealer throws cards that fill it in to give him a good crib that’s just bad luck-giving 2-3 with him 27 out is just bad play,in my opinion
Guest says: I appreciate how much insight you give on your posts. Nice to get into your head, especially since I was the rookie again. I went with the go-big-or-go-home attitude here. I need to adjust my attitude, especially before Raleigh! S :)
mrob2199 says: It will be good to see you there S! The logic behind the decisions is what is important in this forum and we get ample portions of that every day here from multiple sources!
Guest says: I know, and I appreciate being in evereyone'ss head. I've learned a lot on here. But you go through it in more detail, but with reasoning that I can get through logically. Am too left-brained lol. S )
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Monday 4:58 AM
Reasonably safe discard.
Every cut will help me, 4c helps more than most.
3 lead covered by the 9.
Ras2829 says: Hi james500: You're developing a very good habit - submitting great puzzles. Keep em' coming!
james500 says: Hi, thanks for the kind words.
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Monday 5:21 AM
Needing to deal from 4th street CPZ (95-99)it's off., off., off. for me, needing 12 holes. Not crazy about 2-8 (2-9 is lower scoring to opponent rib), my need for points caused me to go with the larger potential scoring hand. Discarding the 2-8 is softened a bit with the presence of the 5 in hand and a touching card. The starter card gives me 10; so will grab pegs if offered in hopes of reaching 95 for the deal. More later.
Ras2829 says: BTW just in case there may be those who do recognize the high-scoring potential of 2-3 7.524 (286) 89/91 to opponent here are some astounding numbers. That 5-point combination scores 8-11 41.941% and scores 12 or more 14.503%. That's nearly 60% of the cribs at 8 or more. Ah, yes it does score 2 points 5 times in 100 (4.97%). Only 5-5 scores more cribs of 8 or more points.
Ras2829 says: Sorry "who do recognize..." above should read "who do not recognize..." An amazing 63% have opted to discard 2-3 with opponent already at hole 94. RAS would chance 2-3 if dealer were at hole 74.
glmccuskey
4101 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Monday 5:50 AM
Wasn’t giving up 2-3 even if that means I deal from a few holes short on 4th street.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Monday 6:11 AM
If the dealer wants 2 extra points, they will have to earned. This is not the position nor the time to give points away. If this hand was at an end game position with first count, my discard would be the 2-3. Right now the dealer is in too advantageous position. Let's hope for better cards on my deal.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Monday 6:25 AM
I prefer to throw 2 - 8. Got to limit dealer's point potential.
mfetchCT425
1399 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Monday 6:45 AM
Agree with above folks who decided not to toss the oh so dangerous 2-3 to opponent’s crib. Liked the touching 9-10 in hand so tossed 2-8. All cuts help this hand. Lead the the 3 and if paired take the 15 for 2. We have 10 in hand so a few pegs will get us in pretty good position for next round as dealer.
mrob2199 says: I’m glad your vacation time hasn’t adversely affected your judgement lol-it’s very interesting that almost all the commenters today did not discard 2-3,but our hold is only 17 percent while the 5-8-9-10 is at 66
mfetchCT425 says: Ty Rob! Fun vacation but missed this site so good to be back. See you Sunday in Brookline, NH.
mfetchCT425 says: Yes, thought the percentages would be closer on the top options. Will be interesting to see what the bot says for this hand and board position. BTW, I did not get to play any crib during vacation. Hope I’m not rusty on Sunday for our 3-man team.
wasa
3018 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Monday 6:53 AM
As above
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Monday 7:00 AM
I WANT to keep opponent short of 111 for next hand but he's already a little short to pull that off.

I NEED to get to/past 96 to stand a half decent chance of winning myself.
travelingman2019
513 votes

Joined: December 2018
 
 
 
Monday 7:04 AM
I will NOT, I repeat NOT give up 23 to the pone leading on 4th street...there are other options here that keep surrendering 23 or a 5 at this juncture....to me, if you do that you might as well be prepared to write 0 on your card vice 2.........
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Monday 9:00 AM
64% throw the 2-3. But for all the reasons stated above 2-8 is the right throw. If we lose, we lose, but dealer will have to earn it.
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Monday 12:19 PM
Need to get close to 95, otherwise we will probably lose anyhow. But not throwing 23 with opponent in approximate position.
Guest says: This is what I need to get into my head when tempted.....deal from 4th street! S:)
Ras2829 says: Most tell me the easiest way to keep track of position is by Critical Position Zones (CPZ's). If non-dealer of first hand this is all there is to it: First Street CPZ 17-21; 2nd Street CPZ 43-47; 3rd Street CPZ 69-73; and 4th street CPZ 95-99. If you have the deal within those zones, you are winning the game even if opponent is leading by 8-10 points. I is important to play position early in game as it is much easier to pick up the pace if trailing on First or Second Street. Those who wait until Fourth Street have put themselves at a great disadvantage as opponent discards to your crib will be more stingy and opponent will peg on Fourth Street only when they figure it is to their advantage. Opponent will take risks with discards and pegs on First and Second Streets. If you would like to know more about CPZ's, E-mail raswino29@outlook.com.
LoneStarPegger
811 votes

Joined: January 2008
 
 
 
Monday 2:19 PM
As above... Defense needed now, so it's an option next time.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Monday 5:57 PM
I kept the 8 instead of the 9 for the magic 11.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Monday 7:34 PM
I'm in the minority here - I discarded 5-2, keeping 3-8-9-10(flush). Here's my reasoning. Maybe someone can comment on it:
I have 83 points, and as pone I want to reach 85(if I can) without giving dealer too much latitude to advance.
I need 12 points to hit 95.
Dealer has 94, so I want to peg defensively, so that he doesn't gain too much in the pegging department. This means that most of my needed 12 points should come from the hand, and not the pegging.
And that means I should keep the flush, bit not give dealer 2-3 in the crib, which can easily give dealer 8 points.
I selected discarding 2-5, worth on average about 5 pts in his crib, and keeping 3-8-9-10, worth as a flush 7 points. (The cut gave me 3 more points, making 10 in all, meaning I only need to try for 2 points pegging.)
I see this as a reasonable balance between trying to reach 95, and restricting the dealer from making too much.
Any comments/corrective advice from the experts here?
Thanks in advance - John
Hillchem says: I'm no expert, but I'll address your post. You're assessment going into the hand seems pretty spot on, but I disagree with your conclusion. You decided to give up a 5, which is a guaranteed 2 points in the crib and often will be much more. And you're doing it so that you can keep an extra 1 point in the hand. That 5 in your hand will work with a lot of the potential cuts. Keeping the 5 will also give you a bit more of a variety if you want to peg defensively.
JCM says: Thanks for your comment. You could be right that tossing the 5 is a bad idea. I just know that 5-2 discard averages about 5.5 points. Dealer can be ahead about 8 points, but if we are at 95, we're still favoured to win. We have a losing game happening here, and it would be helpful to reach that 95 this deal so that we may be facoured to win. That's why I took that risk.(I'm usually not hurt too badly if I unload a 5) But maybe I should be more careful with the 5, as you say. It will be interesting to see what Halscrib says about this. Thanks again for your comment.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Monday 7:36 PM
Correction: When I said above "as pone I want to reach 85(if I can)" I meant "as pone I want to reach 95(if I can)" Sorry for the typo.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 2:06 AM
At 83-94* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total___W1 %___W2 %
3-5-9-10__8.98+(-2.65)+(-4.48)=1.85____0.0____2.2
3-5-8-10__8.72+(-2.85)+(-4.39)=1.48____0.0____1.9
5-8-9-10_11.89+(-3.11)+(-7.33)=1.45____0.0____3.8

Defense______L1 %___L2 %
3-5-9-10_____1.8____35.3
3-5-8-10_____1.7____36.0
5-8-9-10_____4.8____52.6

3-5-9-10 is best for expected averages by 0.37pt and although its not best for Win %s it is lowest for Loss %s. So I'll 2-8 to discard.

After the 4C cut I'll lead the 3 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

___________________Net______Loss %
10_______________(-0.64)_____0.9
9________________(-0.79)_____1.0
3________________(-0.84)_____0.0
5________________(-1.73)_____0.8

The 10 lead is lowest for expected averages but the 3 lead is lowest for Loss %s.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:18 AM
Seems Halscrib considers the 5 should be retained in all 3 of its top 3 options. Means giving up on the run(bad thing), playing more defensively in the crib(good thing) and making it harder(I think) to reach 95 this deal(bad thing).
I would like to see its W/L %s on holding 3-8-9-10. (Discarding 2-5)
Probably a moral here for me about discarding 5's to opp. crib - even if it may be justified in order to reach your target.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:48 AM
"may be justified" in the above should read "may seem justified"