June 12, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
61*-63  ?
35%
22%
21%
5%
5%
4%
2%
1%
1%
1%
Total votes: 198

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

Rosemarie44
1244 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 3:07 AM
I believe it would be between tossing 3-5 or A-4 to our crib. Going with expected averages, 3-5 it is. Hand has more cuts for 10 points.
dec
4501 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 3:36 AM
I believe the narrative here is defense. Some would say this is where the real position play starts. dec
mrob2199
59 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Wednesday 3:37 AM
Has to be 3-5 to your own crib-if you throw ace-4 in the crib youre looking for opponent to throw pictures-so why risk opponent not throwing pictures when you already hold the worst picture pairing-the king-10-the 3-5 discard plays to many more scoring combinations-too much to hope for the bingo 4 cut but the jack is a help anyway
james500
2161 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 5:32 AM
Have learned to throw 3-5 instead of A-X since I started to visit this site.

Play defensively, and maybe Pone doesn't end up too far beyond hole 70.
wasa
1243 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Wednesday 6:26 AM
Keeping the run was tempting but decided i really wanted the 5 in my crib.
Jazzselke
1238 votes

Joined: March 2009

Wednesday 6:30 AM
Currently 60% have kept either 34510 or 345K, but none of commenters.This is a very good instructional hand, as I have noticed in Grass Roots and tournaments that newer players tend to keep the 3-card run and throw A4.
ILostMyJob
1989 votes

Joined: September 2013

   
Wednesday 6:48 AM
I thought the 345 might catch a run, and would rather put a 10 than a K in my crib.
glmccuskey
3000 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Wednesday 6:56 AM
Forced to peg this defensively.
cwed
822 votes

Joined: October 2014

   
Wednesday 7:15 AM
3-5 to my crib, guaranteeing 4+2. In a perfect world, I get the 4 cut!
RubyTuesday
113 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Wednesday 7:41 AM
I failed to spot that A & 4 add up to 5, but think that even if I had done that Id have kept the run. If Id thought a bit harder Id have thrown the 10 rather than the K though!
horus93
442 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Wednesday 8:53 AM
I bungled it today, 3-5 is clearly best. Defense to the cut.
LoneStarPegger
642 votes

Joined: January 2008

   
Wednesday 9:59 AM
Peg defensively!
joekayak
768 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Wednesday 11:12 AM
Thought about keeping 1-3-4-5. All cuts help. But cannot abide K-10 to my own crib. Must throw a 5 or 5 combo to own crib. 3-5 much stronger than 1-4. Plus K-10-4-Ace should peg defensively better than 3-5-10-K.
HalscribCLX
3632 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 4:17 PM
At 61*-63 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
A-3-4-10__4.72+3.41+6.53=14.66____11.0____22.4
A-3-4-K___4.72+3.39+6.51=14.62____11.0____22.7
3-4-5-K___7.98+3.48+3.14=14.60____11.2____23.7
A-4-10-K__5.91+2.43+5.78=14.12____11.1____25.8
A-4-5-K___7.07+3.54+3.49=14.10____11.0____23.1
A-4-5-10__7.07+3.57+3.46=14.10____10.9____22.8
3-5-10-K__6.11+2.70+5.17=13.98____10.2____22.7

Offense_______L4 %____L5 %
A-3-4-10______25.2____56.7
A-3-4-K_______24.8____56.4
3-4-5-K_______24.0____55.2
A-4-10-K______21.3____52.3
A-4-5-K_______24.1____55.5
A-4-5-10______24.3____55.8
3-5-10-K______24.0____55.9

A-3-4-10 is very slightly better than A-3-4-K by 0.04pt but A-3-4-K is slightly better for Win/Loss %s. A-4-10-K is best for Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position approaching the 70pt positional hole. So although A-3-4-10 is 0.56pt lower for expected averages it is best for Win/Loss %s so I'll select 3-5 to discard.

After the J cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
Ras2829
3398 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 5:23 PM
Don't have all the gears in my box that the cribbot has. Had recommended in crib class for years, discard 3-5 to own crib. In recent times have tossed the 5-K. Five/Jack has even higher combined value in a hand of A-3-4-5-J-K. Note the Hand kept by most today is #4 in HalscribCLX analysis today. Seems that the hand with the greater combined value (pegs, hand score, crib value) must ben the correct choice. Not so! And that cribbot projects win/loss margins at scores of 0-0. No human will live long enough to master that. Am playing offense as see no reason for defense with opponent already at hole 63 with a need to deal from 3rd street CPZ (69-73). So it's off., off., off. and play on the lead. Might be choosing an offense strategy for the next 2-3 hands.