June 11, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by james500
71*-84  ?
42%
31%
26%
Total votes: 201

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

dec
4501 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 3:28 AM
Three distinct choices. With this kind of lead I do not opponent will willingly load up my crib. I have a potential of still hitting a large hand here and right or wrong I am keeping the nine here so my score combined will be good enough to hit the mid eightys and be able to play some defense on certain kind of hands opponent has. Almost kept the double. dec
mrob2199
59 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 4:04 AM
Nice puzzle today James-with those hold a 2,5,6,7,8 greatly improve our hand,and with the discard of j-5 a picture cut could yield an 8 or 9 point crib-I also like the 2-6-7-7 as a defensive pegging hand in this spot-we could be able to trap a 5 from a weak opponent
Rosemarie44
1244 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 4:20 AM
I didn't even consider 5-J in the crib - I missed that option. I chose the double run that increases with every cut today. Three different choices from commentators this morning!
zeke76
267 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Tuesday 4:21 AM
I flushed, but this puzzle is above my pay grade.
james500
2161 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 5:42 AM
I like the flush option best, purely because it starts with the most pre-cut points in hand. Not sure whether it's the most valuable hand+crib combo though.
With a 6 and a second 7 out of circulation, there are two fewer helpful cards available for my crib.

We can all feel vindicated in our decision after that cut, no matter what we chose.
Gougie00
3924 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 5:52 AM
I need to hit big on this hand. The flush is worth 9 already and only an ace doesnt help. Lets play some offense and make it a game.
dgergens
356 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Tuesday 6:14 AM
Too many choices. I did forego the chance at a double double to put J,5 in my crib because I thought I had more chance with that to boost my score. The flush was my last choice today.
wasa
1243 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Tuesday 7:05 AM
Like others, all three choices are good. Toss up between tossing 5-J vs 2-7. In the end, I think that the flush will peg better, but very interested in what Halscrib has to say.
Jazzselke
1238 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 7:15 AM
The standard toss from this hand without the flush is 5J. The flush makes the decision a little more intriguing, but throwing the 5J only gives up a point, and is much better than 27. 5J a top 5 throw.
Andy (muesli64)
1535 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Tuesday 7:22 AM
Very close all three options. So we should consider which hand pegs best. Not sure that is the flush but anyway it's a pretty hand to keep.
glmccuskey
3000 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Tuesday 7:42 AM
Agree with rob, Dan and S:) Nice cut. With all these points and my opponent at 84 itís defense to the lead.
cwed
822 votes

Joined: October 2014

   
Tuesday 8:18 AM
I am willing to give up one point in combined hand + crib before the cut in order to drop 5-J in my crib. I got a perfect cut, so now will play defense to the lead in an attempt to keep pone short for the next deal.
King Richard
2779 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 8:41 AM
The King has played this one all 3 ways. Letís try to make everything work. We are in good position, letís gather some points, peg defensively and win this game!
bbaer1
2667 votes

Joined: February 2011

   
Tuesday 9:40 AM
Keeping the double run with a key connector toss in my crib.
LoneStarPegger
642 votes

Joined: January 2008

   
Tuesday 9:55 AM
Pegging defensively with non-dealer approaching next CPZ.
Coeurdelion
3860 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 3:03 PM
There seems to be three choices - the flush, the double-run and 2-6-7-7 (5-J):

5-6-7C-J: 9pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.81) = 13pts

5-6-7-7: 8pts + 3ĺpts (Schell: 3.84) = 11ĺpts

2-6-7-7: 6pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 13pts

Potential:

5-6-7C-J: Improves with 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 77, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/13/14/16pts with 4444, 555, 666, 77, 8888, JJJ = 19 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt extra for his nibs= 9/46 = 0.20pt.

5-6-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 77, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 12/14/15/16pts with 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 77, 8888 = 23 cuts.

2-6-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 555, 666, 77, 8888, 9999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 12/16pts with 222, 555, 666, 77, 8888 = 15 cuts.

Position:

We're 1pt ahead of positional hole and Pone is 2pts short of where they would like to be so I'll play Defense to maintain this.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think the flush and 2-6-7-7 will peg well.

Summary:

5-6-7-7 has the most cuts for improvement and most cuts for a good/very good hand. However it has a starting value 1ľpts lower than 5-6-7C-J. The flush also has a large number of cuts for improvement and for 12-16pts. Also it has the benefit of the J which adds another 0.20pt plus it should peg well. So I'll throw the 2-7H.
HalscribCLX
3632 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 3:16 PM
At 71*-84 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
5-6-7C-J__12.17+(-2.15)+3.65=13.67____21.5____35.0
5-6-7-7___11.83+(-1.98)+3.68=13.53____20.2____34.2
2-6-7-7____8.65+(-2.33)+6.89=13.21____19.4____33.9

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
5-6-7C-J______45.2____54.4
5-6-7-7_______43.7____55.3
2-6-7-7_______41.1____55.2

5-6-7C-J is best for expected averages by 0.14pt and is slightly best for Win %s. It's not quite lowest for Loss %s but even so I'll select 2-7H to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
joekayak
768 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Tuesday 3:30 PM
The flush complicates things. Without the flush option, keep 7-7-6-2 and throw J-5 is best. I stayed with that option.
jmath714
599 votes

Joined: January 2012

   
Tuesday 4:31 PM
My only slight, slight disagreement would be with how to peg this hand. I might peg a little more aggressively if can read my opponent in having a weak hand. If they show anything resembling 8 or more, Iím playing far away though.

Hereís hoping they held A-2-3-4.
Ras2829
3398 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 4:46 PM
It pays to flush, especially so when the flush starts with a point more than any other hold.
If we can limit opponent to an average of 9 points (8 hand score + 1 peg) or less, our chances to win go up appreciably;. So it is def., def., SAFE, and play off the lead. note the safer peg numbers for the double run. If you were to choose offense, the double run does even better because of the potential offensive pegs as a plus. Choosing defense (as here) opponent potential pegs are deducted from combined values.
orvani
327 votes

Joined: June 2011

   
Tuesday 11:35 PM
Ok, the flushes are today's winners !!!
But I kept the double 15's combo to evade our opp from trapping us with a run race ror he has 13 pts. above us and can easilly enter the 4th street, and also I send a 15 to my crib with a big chance to improvr it. nice puzzle James.