Sunday 3:08 AM

2 3 6 8 were the cuts I was looking for. Two lead play defense and just maybe opponent ends up no worse at 110-112 to have a chance at next deal. dec

   

Sunday 3:10 AM

This does not look very promising! Dealer is out by 16 and I am out by 23! Do we risk tossing 4-5 or 5-9 to dealer and help him/her along? Both hands are heavily weighted leaving the hands at 8 points and 6 points, respectively.
I decided to hold 2-2-2-5 that adds up to a magic eleven.

   

Sunday 3:18 AM

Twenty points from 9-2-2-2 (2) would be a godsend, but only a 1/46 (2% or so) chance of getting it. Are my chances of winning via defence any higher? I'm hoping so.
Great cut, 2 lead.

   

Sunday 3:32 AM

One is often rewarded for a good decision in cribbage. So it is here with the 8 starter card here. Now we need another miracle. Dealer need to have one of those South African bishops make an appearance (Was it Tu Tu?) If dealer tabled that frequent 7-8 discard, game is over. Will lead the red deuce and attempt to rid my hand of the five next play. This four-card 11 is a very powerful hand for dealer on a X-point lead. In a hand of XXXX, or a 5 with XXX, the deuces will play back to back in the former case to allow dealer to score 15-2, count advances to 25, 2-2-2 for a total of 12 pegs. Not quite that many in the latter if n/d pairs the 5 for 20, then it's 2-2-2 in a row for a mere 11 pegs. Here we are non-dealer and no way that n/d can play three of a kind consecutively; so you break the triple on the lead. You do need to discover the power of pegging as dealer with 4-card 11's (A-A-A-8, 2-2-2-5, 2-3-3-3). Over the years have won a few games on fourth street keeping these cards and picking off those huge peg totals. Admittedly the cards are not going to show very often; recognize them when they do and the inherent possible pegging coups.

   

Sunday 3:56 AM

I cant give the dealer any points. Hope and pray he's got garbage. Not particularly good strategy for victory. Lead the 2, and ditch the 5.

   

Sunday 5:25 AM

Nothing else is worth the risk. Nice cut allows us to play total defense without worrying about overdoing it.

   

Sunday 5:37 AM

Great pegging discussion by Ras...

   

Sunday 7:35 AM

Defense and pray. What a cut!

   

Sunday 11:59 AM

Defense!

   

Sunday 2:27 PM

Bleak outlook. Don't make it bleaker by putting a 5 in dealers crib. Game is to 121. Dealer needs 16. Unlikely but possible that dealer won't make it. How many times does dealer score 15 or less on first deal? It happens. Same can happen here. The cut gives us hope. Among those hopes are hope dealer did not discard 7-8 to crib. Lead a deuce and continue to hope.

   

Sunday 3:41 PM

At 98-105* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___Win %__Loss %
2-2-2-5___8.26+1.50+(-4.13)=5.63____0.0____38.2
2-2-2-4___8.22+1.80+(-6.51)=3.51____0.2____55.4
2-2-4-5*__5.43+1.85+(-4.30)=2.98____0.0____38.2
2-2-4-9___7.83+1.24+(-6.18)=2.89____0.0____50.7
2-2-2-9___9.09+0.78+(-7.45)=2.42____0.3____59.1

Although 2-2-2-5 has the best expected averages in this board position Win/Loss %s are more important. Only two hands have a chance of winning - 2-2-2-9 and 2-2-2-4 and although 2-2-2-4 has a slightly lower chance of losing I'll select 4-5 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll lead 2S and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead__________Net Pegging Pts.
2_________________(-1.54)
9_________________(-2.41)