June 8, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by HORUS93
28-31*  ?
32%
26%
19%
5%
4%
4%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 167

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

Rosemarie44
1244 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Saturday 3:07 AM
Safe toss to opponent, 4-7 rather than 3-8. Hand has more cuts for 12 points (88, 44, 333).
dec
4501 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Saturday 3:20 AM
Above are similiar reasons for me. Picked the four next to the seven. Only one poser, Lead the four defense or the eight (8-X-4-5.. go then the three. I guess one lead , defensive the other offensive. I choose the four. dec
mrob2199
59 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Saturday 3:43 AM
Like the 4-7 discard here already holding another 4 and 2 eights-so a lot of the danger to the crib is accounted for-prefer to lead the 8 here and play for the 5 trap-maybe we will get lucky and dealer will match the 8
Gougie00
3924 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Saturday 5:24 AM
There are no good discards from this array and I wonder where tossing a 3-4 is smarter because a 6-7-8-9 would give me 12. On the other hand 3-4 touchies in the crib is probably 7 points for the dealer. It seems that we'll take a beating either way. Lead the 8. We might trap a 5.
horus93
442 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Saturday 5:41 AM
This is a basically offensive position but it's early in the game and I don't think tossing 3-4 or 7-8 is worth the risk.
Jazzselke
1238 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Saturday 7:54 AM
Another way to play the hand as we are throwing 38, and holding 2 4s, a 7 and an 8 for great negative delta. However, we are giving up the pegging value of 348.I am not saying this way is clearly better, just bringing it up as an alternative.
travelingman2019
118 votes

Joined: December 2018

   
Saturday 11:51 AM
I can see either 74 or 83, just not 34....invitation to disaster in the form of 16 or 21 crib...............
joekayak
768 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Saturday 12:51 PM
7-4 or 8-3? Not a fan of throwing complimentary cards like 7-4. I'll throw 8-3. lead the 4. Great puzzle.
HalscribCLX
3632 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Saturday 4:05 PM
At 28-31* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W6 %___W7 %
3-4-8-8___7.70+0.98+(-3.94)=4.74____6.7____23.9
4-4-7-8H__7.70+1.13+(-4.22)=4.61____7.3____25.1
4-7-8-8___8.13+1.20+(-5.49)=3.84____7.9____25.4

Offense______L6 %___L7 %
3-4-8-8______10.2___36.4
4-4-7-8H_____10.4___36.1
4-7-8-8______12.6___38.1

3-4-8-8 is best for expected averages by 0.13pt and although its not best for Win %s or lowest for Loss %s because its early in the game I'll select 4-7 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll leab an 8 and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
8____________________1.29
4____________________0.75
3____________________0.58
Ras2829
3398 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Saturday 5:30 PM
Some might have guessed how I would hold this hand if playing off., off., off. Dealer has distinct edge on position here. So my goal is to reach 2nd street CPZ 43-47 for the upcoming deal. Not much chance with that lousy card. As displayed in RAS pegging You-Tube videos, lead from the upper end (in this case 8H). If dealer has 5-X-X-X, a high-percentage chance, most will advance the count to 18, n/d responds with 4 spot for count of 22, and ends up scoring 30 for 4 pegs. If dealer does not have that type of hand, take whatever pegs offered. If nothing offered fake the flush by dropping the 3. Try this when needing offense if holding 2-3-4-8, 3-4-4-8, 3-4-7-8, 2-3-4-9, 3-3-4-9, or similar. You'll often score 30-4 or 31-5. Yes, you might have guessed if reading my reply to Jazzselke that 4-4-7-8H was serious consideration as well. Notice HalscribCLX analysis above. Little more than .1 of a point separates the two choices and potential hand values are identical.