June 8, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by HORUS93
28-31*  ?
32%
26%
19%
5%
4%
4%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 167
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 3:07 AM
Safe toss to opponent, 4-7 rather than 3-8. Hand has more cuts for 12 points (88, 44, 333).
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:20 AM
Above are similiar reasons for me. Picked the four next to the seven. Only one poser, Lead the four defense or the eight (8-X-4-5.. go then the three. I guess one lead , defensive the other offensive. I choose the four. dec
james500 says: Hi Dan, hope you're well. I like the pegging scenario you describe following on from the lead of an 8, but worry that Dealer would respond with their 5 rather than an X, putting us in an uncomfortable position. I agree with you, that the 4 lead is safer.
dec says: James between all posters here on the site you can evaluate your game better with their recs on how to play any hand. valuable stuff. dec
james500 says: Thanks for the kind words Dan. The improvement in my game is all thanks to the insight gained from your comments, and those of the other people on here, every morning.
mrob2199
1436 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 3:43 AM
Like the 4-7 discard here already holding another 4 and 2 eights-so a lot of the danger to the crib is accounted for-prefer to lead the 8 here and play for the 5 trap-maybe we will get lucky and dealer will match the 8
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 5:24 AM
There are no good discards from this array and I wonder where tossing a 3-4 is smarter because a 6-7-8-9 would give me 12. On the other hand 3-4 touchies in the crib is probably 7 points for the dealer. It seems that we'll take a beating either way. Lead the 8. We might trap a 5.
horus93
1282 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Saturday 5:41 AM
This is a basically offensive position but it's early in the game and I don't think tossing 3-4 or 7-8 is worth the risk.
horus93 says: And I'd peg for offense and lead the 8H but really it'll probably be hard to pick up more than a "go" with these as pone imo
Guest says: Then again, 4-4-7-8 has a sweet sixteen. Maybe that's the better choice today. 4-x(14)-8(22)-5(27)-4(31-2)
Ras2829 says: Hi horus093: Very fine puzzle. Keep 'em coming!
Jazzselke
2587 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 7:54 AM
Another way to play the hand as we are throwing 38, and holding 2 4s, a 7 and an 8 for great negative delta. However, we are giving up the pegging value of 348.I am not saying this way is clearly better, just bringing it up as an alternative.
Ras2829 says: Hi Jazzselke: this hand surprisingly has better offensive pegging potential that does 3-4-8-8. In order to maximize that advantage it's necessary to use the "sweet 16" in this manner. Lead a four spot which forces the five off the play, often draws a X-pointer in response for count of 14, play the 8 for count of 22 on any X-pointer bigger than a 10 spot, five gets dropped for count of 27, and you score 31-2. The "sweet 16" can also work if leading the 8 spot. The down side is that many experienced players will drop a five on an 8 lead in which case you will sometimes give up runs and might not get the 31-2. If you begin with the 8 as a lead stay with your strategy to get the count to 22, a very favorable count for the n/d. If dealer advanced the count with a X-pointer, if dealer holding a five spot, you'll still score the 31-2. If no five and all X-pointers, you'll peg your 4-4 back to back for three pegs. Does any of this make sense? More later.
james500 says: Hi Dan, hope your weekend is going well. Talking of alternatives, I'd be interested to know your view on 3-4-7-8. Every non-X cut is helpful, but I guess it probably gives up too many points in hand value?
travelingman2019
513 votes

Joined: December 2018
 
 
 
Saturday 11:51 AM
I can see either 74 or 83, just not 34....invitation to disaster in the form of 16 or 21 crib...............
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 12:51 PM
7-4 or 8-3? Not a fan of throwing complimentary cards like 7-4. I'll throw 8-3. lead the 4. Great puzzle.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:05 PM
At 28-31* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W6 %___W7 %
3-4-8-8___7.70+0.98+(-3.94)=4.74____6.7____23.9
4-4-7-8H__7.70+1.13+(-4.22)=4.61____7.3____25.1
4-7-8-8___8.13+1.20+(-5.49)=3.84____7.9____25.4

Offense______L6 %___L7 %
3-4-8-8______10.2___36.4
4-4-7-8H_____10.4___36.1
4-7-8-8______12.6___38.1

3-4-8-8 is best for expected averages by 0.13pt and although its not best for Win %s or lowest for Loss %s because its early in the game I'll select 4-7 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll leab an 8 and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
8____________________1.29
4____________________0.75
3____________________0.58
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 5:30 PM
Some might have guessed how I would hold this hand if playing off., off., off. Dealer has distinct edge on position here. So my goal is to reach 2nd street CPZ 43-47 for the upcoming deal. Not much chance with that lousy card. As displayed in RAS pegging You-Tube videos, lead from the upper end (in this case 8H). If dealer has 5-X-X-X, a high-percentage chance, most will advance the count to 18, n/d responds with 4 spot for count of 22, and ends up scoring 30 for 4 pegs. If dealer does not have that type of hand, take whatever pegs offered. If nothing offered fake the flush by dropping the 3. Try this when needing offense if holding 2-3-4-8, 3-4-4-8, 3-4-7-8, 2-3-4-9, 3-3-4-9, or similar. You'll often score 30-4 or 31-5. Yes, you might have guessed if reading my reply to Jazzselke that 4-4-7-8H was serious consideration as well. Notice HalscribCLX analysis above. Little more than .1 of a point separates the two choices and potential hand values are identical.