Thursday 3:27 AM

It pays to Flush. Start with 6 points. The only cut that doesn't help improve the hand is a 9.

   

Thursday 3:38 AM

The only cuts that does'nt help are the 9D,9C,9S. The pegging I will lead the three since we know of two of them and play off after opponent needs five here. dec

   

Thursday 4:07 AM

Keep the flush here-the only cut that doesn’t help is a non heart 9 so the odds are certainly in our favor to have enough to go out-the only drawback keeping this hand is what makes it a strength every other hand of the game-its randomness-the dealer is obviously going to try to peg the 5 points he needs to win ,so it’s safe to assume he won’t be keeping jack-Queen-king-king to do so-he will keep a mishmash of cards to try to cover every holding you could hold,so the odds are good he might have 1 or 2 of your cards-the skill in this pegging scenario will be to prevent him from any runs he may try to coax you into-obviously there is nothing you can do if he just matches every card you play-lead the 3 and try to read where your opponent is trying to steer you and travel in the opposite direction!!!!

Thursday 4:19 AM

Ditto with mrob!!

   

Thursday 4:44 AM

Thought the queen was a diamond. Need coffee. At least with the queen coming up, I can go out. So defense.

   

Thursday 5:21 AM

I'll be interested to see what makes it in to second place, Q-6 or 6-7?

   

Thursday 6:07 AM

See post #3

   

Thursday 6:15 AM

In my best Elvis, "Its now or never". I saw the flush, but thought the 233 together would be less vulnerable. Lead the 3 and play off because the Q starter gives us enough points.

   

Thursday 7:26 AM

I like the flush. Dealer will not necessarily be trying to peg out; we need 8 points, after all, so he might well decide there's a decent chance of getting to count his hand/crib. An expert player in dealer's shoes would probably try to keep his options open and make some judgment based on our lead and whether it matches the cut.

If the score was a little different and I felt more confident that dealer would be on desperation offense I might be more tempted to keep the 2-3-3-Q. Dealer would have a bias toward keeping low cards and would almost certainly pair my lead, if possible, if the score were a little different.

   

Thursday 9:14 AM

What are chances that dealer can limit me to 7 holes. That's a 1 in 5 proposition. So think most dealers will try to win the game on this deal. As result am playing def., def., SAFE. Lead the trey and get rid of the deuce next pay if possible. Retaining 7-Q ought to be very safe. With this variety of cards often will give dealer only a go. The post of mrob2199 covers the bases quite well.

   

Thursday 12:43 PM

Only two ways to keep 6pts - the flush and 2-3-3-Q. We need 8pts so lets see how many achieve this for each hand:

2-3H-7-Q: Improves to 8pts or more with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 8888 + 15xXs = 41 cuts plus 9H for 7pts.

2-3-3-Q: Improves to 8pts or more with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 555, 777, 9999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts.

I think the flush will be better for restricting Dealer's pegging and has more cuts to a winning hand so I'll throw 3S-6.

   

Thursday 12:49 PM

At 113-116* playing a Bold strategy for the pegging the Win %s and Loss %s are:

Bold___________Win %________Peg Loss %_____Loss %
2-3H7-Q________98.1____________0.0__________1.9
2-3-3-7________96.5____________4.9__________3.5
2-3-3-Q________94.7____________2.7__________5.3

The flush has the best Win % and lowest Loss % so I'll select 3S-6 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll lead the 2 and play Defense:

Lead_____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
2______________________(-2.07)
3______________________(-2.16)
7______________________(-2.33)
Q______________________(-2.48)

   

Thursday 2:42 PM

Live and learn. From a defense point of view I think 2,3,3,Q and 2,3,7,Q have EQUAL utility for keeping the dealer from pegging out. But I see if you consider cuts, 6&8 fail to help the first hand, and only 9 fails to help the second hand.

   

Thursday 3:13 PM

I think that here and in that board position 2-3-3 combo have an advatage over the flush combo especially because there is more chance that the cut going to be a T-card (there is 16 from those here 15) and that let us going out through the front door !!! and also there's less chance that our dealer trap us with a run.

   

Thursday 10:26 PM

Will consider the flush next time. I didn't see it on my phone.