Wednesday 3:07 AM

Tossing the slightly safer 2-J rather than 3-J to dealer. This hand has 20 cuts for improvement to 8, 9, or 10 points (555,888, 333, 6666; 4444; 777).
If I had chosen to toss 3-J this hand has only 16 cuts for improvement to 8 or 10 points. (222 ,555, 777; 6666, 888)

   

Wednesday 3:07 AM

Their crib check. Cut potential check. Lead card check. Wide discard, Max on hand ten points. Eight lead although pondered three also. Defense. dec

   

Wednesday 4:13 AM

Like the 3 lead from this hand-if dealer responds with a picture dump the 5-if dealer matches it you get the 31 with your 8-this should be a good hand to basically break par with the dealer-then you can attempt to create some margin on your next deal

   

Wednesday 4:46 AM

Only the cut of a non-club Ace or 9 is unhelpful to me, (and voilà!), so I should be well beyond hole 17 as Dealer in the next hand.
With a 3,5 and 7 in my hand, there's a wee bit of negative delta to weaken 2-8 to my opponent.
3 lead.

   

Wednesday 5:10 AM

I must be learning, which is encouraging.

   

Wednesday 5:28 AM

Anything but a 9! Ugh. Lead the 3 and try to muster a few pegs.

   

Wednesday 6:12 AM

Normally it is good to be on the winning side, but on this site, I always wait to compare to Ras, Hal, & C de Lion, not the popular vote.

   

Wednesday 6:25 AM

Like this hold slightly better than 2-5-7-8. Will lead the 3 and take pegs when I can.

   

Wednesday 7:31 AM

Best chance for improvement, a 4 cut would not help 2578 but completes an often miscounted 9 point hand with 3578.

   

Wednesday 11:29 AM

Only the 9 missed this hand, but I very much appreciate the discussion about improving peg points.

   

Wednesday 11:45 AM

It's early yet, no need to give away points. Plenty of board left. Going to lead a three from this hold, if they pair me I'll drop the two as often they'll have one also! My five will at least get me two points back.

   

Wednesday 1:03 PM

Don't want to do anything crazy with these cards at this relative position (+6/-7).

   

Wednesday 1:23 PM

Toss off the top and bottom of the hand. Though often mention giving up the Jack in small hands transfers an advantage to the opponent. The Jack is worth an average of .25 in the hand and adds .25 to the potential crib value, for a net difference of .5 In this case, the added potential hand score and the potential pegs more than makes up for the loss of the Jack. That's all academic here as the starter card is red. Good weather, planting warm weather crops today. The 2-J average to opponent is 4.613 (922) 3/91 and 3-J at 4.705 (1,004) 35/91. Besides that the 3 is in closer proximity to 5-7-8. And will choose def., def., def. More later

   

Wednesday 1:35 PM

I’ve managed to do the right thing today for a change!

   

Wednesday 2:20 PM

What ras and others said. Plus I like to keep 8-7 in my hand (if possible and prudent) when pone. Lead the 3.

   

Wednesday 5:17 PM

Perhaps six possibilities - 2-3-5-J (7-8), 2-5-8-J (3-7), 3-5-7-J (2-8), 2-5-7-8 (3-J), 3-5-7-8 (2-J) or 2-3-5-7 (8-J):

2-3-5-J: 4pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.63) = -3½pts

2-5-8-J: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.01) = -1pt

3-5-7-J: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.85) = -1pt

2-5-7-8: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.86) = -¾pt

3-5-7-8: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = -¾pt

2-3-5-7: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.59) = -2½pts

Potential:

2-3-5-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555, 777, 888 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to7/8/pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555 + 15xXs = 32 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

2-5-8-J: Improves with 222, 333, 555, 777, 888 + 15xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 8/10pts with 222, 555, 888, JJJ = 12 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

3-5-7-J: Improves with 222, 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 888 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 7/8/10pts with 333, 4444, 555, 6666, JJJ = 17 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

2-5-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 + 15xxs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 7/8/10pts with 222, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 20 cuts.

3-5-7-8: Improves with 222, 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 7/8/9/10pts with 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 24 cuts.

2-3-5-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 888 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 5/6/8 with AAAA, 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 888 + 15xXs = 39 cuts.

Position:

It looks like we were First Dealer and opponent has gained a little ground but we still have positional advantage so I'll still play Defense.

Pegging:

All the hands should peg reasonably well but I think playing Defense the hands which have a good spread will peg best.

Summary:

2-5-7-8 and 3-5-7-8 start with the lowest value at -¾pt 3-5-7-J is better than 2-5-8-J and 2-3-5-J has a very low starting value. 3-5-7-J starts with -1pt but it also has the benefit of the nob. So I think its between 3-5-7-J, 2-5-7-8, 3-5-7-8. I think it will be close but with the spread of the cards I think 3-5-7-J will peg better and has the benefit of the 1pt for his nob. So I'll throw 2-8.

   

Wednesday 5:19 PM

At 14-11* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total_____W8 %____W9 %
3-5-7-J___6.72+(-2.83)+(-4.36)=(-0.47)____32.1____47.8
2-5-7-8___6.91+(-2.83)+(-4.70)=(-0.62)____32.9____48.3
3-5-7-8___7.00+(-3.00)+(-4.62)=(-0.62)____33.6____48.6
2-5-8-J___6.20+(-2.72)+(-4.39)=(-0.91)____30.0____45.9
2-3-5-7___5.96+(-2.70)+(-4.33)=(-1.07)____32.6____48.2
2-3-5-8___5.52+(-2.89)+(-4.37)=(-1.74)____31.0____46.3
2-5-7-J___4.67+(-2.78)+(-4.47)=(-2.58)____27.2____43.1
2-3-5-J___7.46+(-2.76)+(-7.32)=(-2.62)____35.5____45.7

Defense_______L8 %____L9 %
3-5-7-J_______25.2____26.8
2-5-7-8_______25.4____26.5
3-5-7-8_______26.2____26.6
2-5-8-J_______25.1____28.4
2-3-5-7_______25.3____26.6
2-3-5-8_______25.8____28.3
2-5-7-J_______25.2____30.8
2-3-5-J_______33.4____30.9

3-5-7-J is best for expected averages by 0.15pt and whilst 3-5-7-8 is slightly best for Win %s and both 3-5-7-J and 2-5-7-8 are approximately lowest for Loss %s I'll put most weight on the expected average and select 2-8 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll lead the J and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Pts.
J___________________1.60
3___________________1.31
7___________________1.30
5___________________1.05