Monday 3:25 AM

Between Q-7 or Q-4. Twelve cuts (2,5,6) for hand count out compared to Twelve cuts also (5,6,8) for similiar result. If we cut a three or a nine we need at least to peg. So I need some insight if miracle pegging keeping 3-4-6-7 might induce that miracle finish. dec

   

Monday 3:47 AM

First disaster is this hand cannot bring us easily to the 7 points we need to peg and count out - I show 11 eleven cuts (5555, 666 for 8 points and 2222 for 9 points.
Second disaster - the starter card of a Jack gives opponent 2 points right off the bat and does help us one bit!

   

Monday 4:32 AM

With only two points I’ll lead the nine, keeping the 3-4-6 together in hopes of getting into a pegging war.

   

Monday 5:14 AM

A few useful cuts available, but the Jack of spades isn't one of them. 6 lead.

   

Monday 5:37 AM

Everyone so far is in accord. 3469 is probably the best pegger. The Jack doesnt help, so its time for some creative pegging. Lead the 9 and play obnoxious offense.

   

Monday 5:44 AM

I saw this hand played in a playoff match, the pone held 3467, looking for 2,5 or 8, 12 cards. But as Dec points out, 3469 has 6 extra cards that gives us 6 points, the 3 or 9. BTW, S:) finished 2nd yesterday in a consolation tournament, way to go!

   

Monday 6:03 AM

As others have stated, I think this hand gives us the best chance to go out (including pegging).

Since we only care about offense and pegging, the numbers from Brown on offense:

Q7-4.3
Q3-4.3
Q4-4.2

Of course, we don't really care about averages either. It's 7 points or bust, so it's the number of hands that can get us 7 (or maybe 5-6 hoping we can peg 1-2).

   

Monday 6:52 AM

Play offense, cross your fingers and toes, and say a few words to the "cribbage gods". It might just get you to the emerald city.

   

Monday 6:55 AM

I did it thisaway

   

Monday 8:28 AM

I believe we have no/low chance of dealer not winning if they get to count, so need 7 points. And that requires a miracle. I will be interested to see the numbers, because I wondered if holding 3457 was the better chance for a miracle cut. But in the end kept the 2 for sure points and hope for a good cut and some good pegging.

   

Monday 9:13 AM

Like this hold slightly better than the other options. With unfavorable cut, will lead the 9. We’re in trouble here.

   

Monday 12:10 PM

The 3-4-6-9 gives us the best chance for trapping a 5 for a potential 5 points -which is obviously needed since the cut didn’t help at all-lead the 9 and play the 4 if dealer responds with a picture-it’s probably doubtful he left himself with a bare 5 but it is your only chance of winning

   

Monday 2:02 PM

The greater combined value favors discarding the 7-10. Knowing we have only two points after the cut of that lousy Jack, and dealer benefits by two points for turning it,it's off., off., BOLD. That's what necessitates leading the 9 as it leaves us with three cards tightly clustered. We need a run of four with a go. RAS likes the 6 lead from this hand if needing fewer pegs. Got to go for the win although the chances are slim. There is also a chance that dealer would play a trey on the nine lead, since the 9 is our sleeper card. When a deuce is cut, this hand scores 9 points and is frequently under-scored. If dealer plays a small card on the 9 lead, have to play on it either to pair or 15-2. Am not the least concerned what dealer pegs here. It's only my pegs that matter. Got to go for the win here as dealer got two for the Jack, a guaranteed peg before scoring hand or crib. What are chances of limiting dealer to 8 points total? That's 1 of 14 with first count coming up. This game is history unless we can win on this deal.

   

Monday 2:56 PM

I think we must hold the 2pts so that suggests discarding 7-Q, 4-Q or 3-Q:

We need 7pts or more to go out.

3-4-6-9: 9pts: 2222
8pts: 5555, 666
6pts: 333, 999
Total Cuts = 17

3-6-7-9: 8pts: 666, 8888
7pts: 5555
6pts: 333 , 999
Total Cuts = 17

4-6-7-9: 8pts: 5555, 8888
6pts: 2222, 444, 666, 999
Total Cuts = 21

3-4-6-9 and 3-6-7-9 have 11 cuts for 7pts or more compared to 8 for 4-6-7-9. But 4-6-7-9 has more cuts overall. So I'll throw the 3-Q.

   

Monday 3:02 PM

At 114-109* playing a Bold strategy for the pegging the Win %s are:

Offense_____________Win %
4-6-7-9_____________50.8
3-4-6-9_____________49.7
3-6-7-9_____________48.0
6-7-9-Q_____________45.8
3-4-6-7_____________38.7

So I'll select 3-Q to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead the 4 and play Offense:

Lead______________Our Pegging Pts.
4______________________1.59
9______________________1.51
7______________________1.47
6______________________1.43

   

Monday 8:07 PM

I matched HAL. But as all have stated, I need a miracle... Or really good distraction.