May 15, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by ccjohnson
51-56*  ?
26%
23%
21%
13%
11%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 169

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

Rosemarie44
1219 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 3:37 AM
I can't see holding 6 points and tossing 2 points to opponent. Hand has a two card eleven and will peg best.
dec
4475 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 3:57 AM
Slow down opponent. Lots of green grass ahead still. Lead a two, dump the five. Eight cuts would give us a dozen ( 6/9) quite a risk here to give up two to their crib. dec
zeke76
244 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Wednesday 4:24 AM
I assume it doesn’t matter which 2 is tossed with the 9.
mrob2199
39 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Wednesday 4:28 AM
No reason to get crazy here-keep the 4 points and try to kill dealers crib-the 2256 has a good chance of pegging 2-3 points without too much risk-lead the 2 of clubs for the fake flush play if dealer doesn’t match the 2-which is obviously very likely since there is only one remaining-if dealer plays a picture play the 6 here-you could get the go and the ensuing 15
horus93
419 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Wednesday 5:16 AM
I didn't want to be too defensive at this relative position (-9/+12). Sure 2-9 is safe but 2-2-5-6 is a pretty mediocre hand and of 2-point tosses to the opponent 6-9 must be one of the safer ones.
Gougie00
3899 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Wednesday 5:33 AM
Another hedge. Lousy starter. Lead the 2 and take the points if they present themselves. Ditch the 5 when possible.
joekayak
736 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Wednesday 5:41 AM
Not much to like here. Best of a bad lot, Cannot in all good cribbage conscience keep 6 or 8 points in any way. Not with dealer where they are. Keep 4 points, 2-9 off suit to dealer crib. Hope for opponent to slow down and that there are a lot more hands to play. Lead the 2C.
james500
2136 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 5:46 AM
Could start with eight points, but it means discarding 5-6. Could start with six if I'm prepared to discard 6-9 or 5-9. Suspect I've been too cautious by choosing 2-9, and only starting with four points.
JRCeagle78
654 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Wednesday 6:32 AM
I kept the 3 clubs and the pseudo-flush to keep the dealer on his toes. 9-2 had the best chance of blanking his crib. The 3 cut lets me know that he has at least 2 points, but I am expecting that he has 4 and I will play my hand accordingly. If I don't pick up some points on the ensuing deal, this player could be in deep doo-doo.
cribbagepogo
2818 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 9:33 AM
Guess it is really 60% against me and all others. Which 2 combo you hold is academic. Went for the big shot, not a good thing.
RubyTuesday
96 votes

Joined: January 2019

Wednesday 9:41 AM
I tried to post the same hand as cribbagepogo but I’m not being allowed to vote.
LoneStarPegger
623 votes

Joined: January 2008

   
Wednesday 11:10 AM
I get caught up in trying to maximize points. Thanks for reminding me to think longer term. Adding up variations of 2256 is 55% as of my post... Learning has occurred.
mfetchCT425
311 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Wednesday 3:09 PM
Agree with rob and others above with this hold. Suited 5-6 to opponent’s crib could lose this game for us on this deal. Let’s live another day. Like the 2-9 relatively strong defensive toss especially with us holding two other 2s. Would lead from strength here, 2c, in case we want to invoke a flush fake.
Coeurdelion
3844 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 4:45 PM
I think its between 2-2-2-9 (5-6) and 2-2-5-6 (2-9):

2-2-2-9: 8pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.47) = +½pt

2-2-5-6: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.70) = -½pt

Potential:

2-2-2-9: Improves with 2, 4444, 666, 999 = 11 cuts = 11/46 = 23.9% up to 12/20pts with 2, 4444, 999 = 8 cuts.

2-2-5-6: Improves with 2, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/9/11/12pts with 2, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888 = 19 cuts.

Position:

Dealer is 12pts ahead of 2nd street positional hole and we're 9pts behind wwhere we like to be so I think we're too far behind to play Offense (especially as only 1 cut scores 20pts) so I'll play Defense to slow dealer down.

Pegging:

I think 2-2-5-6 is better for the pegging.

Summary:

2-2-5-6 has a starting value 1pt less but has many more cuts for improvement and I think will peg better. It also has 19 cuts for 8-12pts. So I'll throw a 2-9.
HalscribCLX
3607 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 4:47 PM
At 51-56* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W4 %___W5 %
2-2-5-6___6.91+1.61+(-4.30)=4.22____2.1____15.8
2-2-2-5___8.17+1.50+(-5.95)=3.72____2.3____16.2
2-2-2-6___7.61+1.17+(-6.39)=2.39____1.8____14.2
2-2-2-9___9.17+0.78+(-7.63)=2.32____2.5____16.1

Offense______L4 %___L5 %
2-2-5-6_______6.7___43.2
2-2-2-5______10.4___48.2
2-2-2-6_______8.7___49.1
2-2-2-9______11.2___51.3

2-2-5-6 is best for expected averages by 0.50pt and although its slightly lower for Win %s its very much best for Loss %s. So I'll select a 2-9 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead a 2 and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Pts.
2__________________1.90
6__________________1.34
5__________________1.06
Ras2829
3373 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 10:35 PM
With dealer already at hole 56, RAS is in the middle of nowhere. It's off., off., BOLD for me. Lead the 2C and take any pegs offered. After seeing the lousy trey cut, it' so be an offense choice for several hands. Notice how far down the list 2-2-2-9 is? Using my scant empirical data to calculate combined values, holding 2-2-5-6 is very near 1/2 point better. The 5-y6 discard to opponent crib is more than I am willing to chance. Note HalscribCLX shows the potential value of 5-6 to opponent crib is 7.63 which drops that choice of 2-2-2-9 to 4th spot, though the #1 voter choice this date. In our club, would retain 2-2-2-9 as club pays $50 for crib's rarest 20-point hand (22229). No where else would that be the case.