Monday 3:10 AM

Not keen on 3-6 and 2-3 is out of the question here unless I really needed a three point win here. Alas 3-6 might be the more viable choice at least still have a chance to hit that 85 goal with this keep. Lead the six of hearts and muddy the pegging here. defense. dec

Monday 3:24 AM

Chose the safer 3-6 to opponent's crib. This hand has 15 cuts for 12 or 16 points. Defense.

Monday 3:53 AM

Don't need to travel far, but need to prevent Dealer from doing so. No to 2-3 and the flush then, but either of an offsuit 3-6, 3-7 or 2-7 could work. I'll try 3-6 (with a second 6 known to be out of circulation).

Monday 3:57 AM

I lead the seven of diamonds and peg as defensively as I can. If dealer plays an eight I’ll escape with my two.

Monday 4:19 AM

My thinking seems in line with current voters.

Monday 5:23 AM

Interesting puzzle. I tossed 3-6 because I already know where one of the sixes are. Not tempted by the flush or holding 6677. Lead the 7 of diamonds. If the dealer has a similar hand we will get creamed. Use the 2 to escape run situations.

It has rained nearly every day here in northern Massachusetts for about 3 weeks, and rain is in the forecast again.

Monday 5:26 AM

Like the 3-6 toss here. A 2nd 6 already accounted for and we get 16 if an is cut with this hold vs. 14 if we hold 2-6-6-7. I might lead the 2 here. If opponent plays a face, would play my 7d (flush fake). If he plays 8/9, would play my 6. If he plays a 7 would play 7d with chance to peg big with pairs royal. 6 response, 7d again. If he plays a 5 or lower, 7d again.

Monday 6:33 AM

At +8/-2 holding good cards this is a pretty defensive position. I only really thought about 3-6 and 3-7 and went with 3-6 as it's obv the safer of the two and both hands start with 6.

Our goal isn't 85, our goal is to be dealing a few points past 70 next hand (attainable without pegging anything w these cards) and to keep opponent from being pone at 86+.

I'd play fairly defensively and lead the 7 but seeing as we only hold 6 points, we're still just coming into third street and double pair royals are one of the rarest occurrences in the game I'd triple if opponent pairs it.

Monday 9:24 AM

I will take my chances with the 63 offsuit toss.....Barlow specifically talks about never giving combos totaling 10 into opponent's crib.............

Monday 9:35 AM

Late to the party, it's all been said. No need to take chances, and 36 safer than 37 knowing of a second 6.

Monday 1:28 PM

Don't want to give away a 7 the only reason this is better than the 2,6,6,7.

Monday 2:09 PM

It pays to flush! Here we have a flush that benefits from the cut of any denomination and from those remaining diamonds. Besides the potential pegging value of 2-3-6-7 is much superior to other available combinations. It matters not whether playing defense or offense, the 2-3-6-7 has the edge. With dealer at hole 68, want to minimize dealer pegs. That three-card eleven (2-3-6) gives me a clear chance to do so. Since choosing a defense pegging strategy, will lead the trey. Would play the six if dealer puts a 10-point card on my trey and plan to close the count at 31-2 with the deuce. If choosing offense, would have taken the 15-2 with the deuce and hoped to close the count at 31 with the six. That's my take on it.

Monday 4:54 PM

I think the choice must be between 2-3-6D-7D (6H-7H) and 2-6D-7-7 (3-6H):

2-3-6D-7D: 6pts - 6pts (Schell: 6.42) = 0pt

2-6D-7-7: 6pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.87) = 1pt

Potential:

2-3-6D-7D: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 66, 77, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 9/10/11/12 with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 66, 77, 8888 = 26 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

2-6D-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 5555, 66, 77, 8888, 9999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 12/16pts with 222, 5555, 66, 77, 8888 = 15 cuts.

Position:

Dealer is 2pts short of positional hole but we're 18pts short of where we need to be so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think the flush will peg better and be harder to read.

Summary:

Although the starting value of 2-3-6D-7D is 1pt less than 2-6D-7-7 (1½pts according to Schell) 2-3-6D-7D has many more cuts for improvement and also will peg better. So I'll throw the somewhat risky suited 6-7.

Monday 4:57 PM

At 68-68* playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Net
Optimal____Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total___W4 %____W5 %
2-3-6D-7D__9.59+(-0.57)+(-5.61)=3.41____53.5____55.8
2-6D-7-7___8.65+(-1.70)+(-4.10)=2.85____43.6____54.9

Optimal_______L4 %____L5 %
2-3-6D-7D_____42.1____26.6
2-6D-7-7______35.4____28.1

The flush is better for expected averages by 0.56pt and is considerably better for Win %s. Although it is worse for Loss %s because of the risk of the 6H-7H I'll still select this discard.

After the 10 cut I'll lead the 2 and play Safe:

Defense______Dealer's Pegging Pts.
2___________________(-1.94)
3___________________(-2.00)
6___________________(-2.42)
7___________________(-2.51)