Sunday 3:06 AM

I went for the eighteen hand cut and using the peggers. Four lead play on. dec

   

Sunday 3:09 AM

It pays to Flush! Agree with dec.

   

Sunday 4:00 AM

Interesting hand. I prefer to keep dealer's score down. He is only just above par.

   

Sunday 4:08 AM

I don't think I can afford to give 7-8 to my opponent with them already at 70. I'll do what I can to reduce the chances of them scoring the 16 average, and would be satisfied if they ended this hand no further than hole 83/84.

7h lead, keeping the 3 to escape with if they play close.

Sunday 5:36 AM

Oh why can’t it be our crib!!!! Keeping the dealer down is more important than keeping the beautiful flush-7-8 just scores too well to give up at that point-the 3-5-7/7 should peg pretty effectively in defensive terms-lead the 7 and play your other 7 if dealer counters with a picture

   

Sunday 6:02 AM

We can’t make it to 95 so it’s definitely defense. I’ll lead the seven of hearts.

   

Sunday 6:51 AM

A hedge. I wonder if the flush was the way to go? I went for the stifle. Lead the 7 of hearts.

Happy Easter.

   

Sunday 9:06 AM

Unsure. Went with flush. Happy Easter.

   

Sunday 9:38 AM

At -13/+0 this is a defensive position. No way am I risking 7-8 when I can still hold a pretty good hand with a safer toss.

Say we keep the flush and cut for 18, peg a couple of points, we'd still be in only a marginal position if tossing 7-8 pushes dealer past 86, whereas with this keep we should be looking much better positionally if we can hold oppon short of 86.

   

Sunday 9:56 AM

How does the King win this game? Defense. Dealer at par hole means she is in position to cycle out in 2 deals after this one half of the time. Let’s try to make sure it’s the half we want!

   

Sunday 10:44 AM

Like this hand holding 6 with 4-8 toss vs flush hold of 9 tossing 7-8. This hold still has potential for 12. Want to hold the dealer as far away from 86-88 as I can. Would lead the 7h for possible flush fake, and would peg defensively. Nice puzzle by James.

   

Sunday 1:05 PM

The flush looks great but style points don't help in cribbage.

   

Sunday 3:54 PM

I think its between the flush 3-4-5-7H (7-8), 5-7-7-8 (3-4) and 3-5-7-7 (4-8):

3-4-5-7H: 9pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.63) = +1½pts

5-7-7-8: 6pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.96) = +¼pt

3-5-7-7: 6pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.94) = +1pt

Potential:

3-4-5-7H: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 77, 888 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 13/16/18pts with 333, 444, 555, 6666, 77, 888 = 18 cuts. Plus 9 hearts for an extra 1pt for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

5-7-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 555, 6666, 77, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 10/12/14pts with 333, 6666, 77, 888, 9999 = 16 cuts.

3-5-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 77, 888 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 9/10/12pts with 333, 444, 555, 6666, 77, 888 = 18 cuts.

Position:

Dealer's in position and we'd like to be at 86pt. I'll play Defense to hold Dealer back as much as possible.

Pegging:

I think all of these hands will peg well but not ideally for Defense. The flush will be harder to read.

Summary:

3-4-5-7H starts with ½pt more than 3-5-7-7 and only has one fewer cuts than 5-7-7-8 for improvement. It also has the best maximum and 18 cuts for 13-18pts plus an extra 0.20pt potential for a heart cut. So despite wanting to pursue a Defense strategy I'll risk the 7S-8.

   

Sunday 4:41 PM

At 73-70* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib___Total____W3 %____W4 %
3-4-5-7H__12.43+(-3.00)+(-6.85)=2.58____17.1____38.3
3-5-7-7____8.89+(-2.91)+(-4.14)=1.84_____6.7____36.9
5-7-7-8____9.30+(-2.67)+(-5.52)=1.11_____7.4____33.4

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
3-4-5-7H______18.5____45.6
3-5-7-7________9.4____39.9
5-7-7-8_______13.2____44.6

3-4-5-7H is best for expected averages by 0.72pt and is very much best for Win %s. It is, however, much worse for Loss %s but even so I'll select 7S-8 to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead the 4 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead_________Net Pegging Pts.
4_________________(-1.11)
3_________________(-1.26)
7_________________(-1.39)
5_________________(-2.01)

   

Sunday 8:03 PM

Every once in a while you cross your fingers and give a gift.