April 15, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by garygiac on ecribbage.com
59-70*  ?
94%
2%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 169

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

Rosemarie44
1190 votes

Joined: March 2016
   
Monday 3:04 AM
How else would you hold 6 points in the hand and a five to hit any of the remaining 15 face cards?
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james500
2107 votes

Joined: June 2013
   
Monday 3:24 AM
Would be nice if I could choose K-9 to slow my opponent, but I'd like 10+ points this hand, so better to start with six than two.

9h lead, so my 2nd card is either another 9 or another heart.
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dec
4443 votes

Joined: April 2008
   
Monday 3:39 AM
Agree with above except I would lead the nine of diamonds. It is what it is. dec
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Andy (muesli64)
1508 votes

Joined: August 2009
   
Monday 4:37 AM
Didn't need to switch on the grey cells this morning.
Reply
zeke76
215 votes

Joined: August 2018
Monday 5:40 AM
When with the trip 9s and 5 just like everyone else.
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dgergens
310 votes

Joined: January 2018
   
Monday 7:39 AM
Cheers.
Reply
Ras2829
3344 votes

Joined: November 2008
   
Monday 8:46 AM
Yup - so it is! Choosing offense - nothing to defend. Will lead the 9H as intend to rid myself of that lone 5H second card played. Might as well fake the flush. Only hope is that dealer has a 9 and did not want to pair my opening lead. We're in very bad shape and looks like will be playing offense for the remainder of this game. Gotta believe you can win no matter how dire it appears.
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joekayak
705 votes

Joined: May 2016
   
Monday 9:02 AM
"Find some reason the Believe" Bruce Springsteen.
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horus93
392 votes

Joined: December 2017
   
Monday 10:37 AM
Should be 100%.

While I hope and pray to keep opponent short of ~86 on this hand I don't stand much of a shot of winning without making it to around or ideally past 70 myself so I'd play offense. Not much to it but to lead the 9H, hopefully get the first "go" and a 15-2 when the other guy leads a X on the second play series.
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Gougie00
3868 votes

Joined: March 2008
   
Monday 1:51 PM
Lousy cut
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LoneStarPegger
605 votes

Joined: January 2008
   
Monday 2:20 PM
Not at desperation offense... Yet
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Coeurdelion
3818 votes

Joined: October 2007
   
Monday 3:45 PM
5-9-9-9 keeps 6pts and has 9 cuts for 12pts (AAAA, 6666, 9) plus the 2-K is a reasonably low scoring discard (Est. 4˝pts Schell: 4.45) So that's the throw for me.
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HalscribCLX
3580 votes

Joined: February 2008
   
Monday 3:47 PM
At 59-70* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W4 %___W5 %
5-9-9-9___7.96+0.98+(-4.43)=4.51____9.9____21.0
5-9-9-K*__5.63+1.20+(-4.52)=2.51____7.6____18.5
2-5-9-9*__4.22+1.59+(-3.81)=2.00____7.5____16.5

Offense______L4 %___L5 %
5-9-9-9______43.9___68.0
5-9-9-K*_____44.8___72.2
2-5-9-9*_____43.6___73.8

5-9-9-9 is best for expected averages by 2.00pts and is significantly best for both Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position. So I'll select 2-K to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead a 9 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead___________Net Pegging Pts.
9__________________(-1.47)
5__________________(-2.70)
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