April 15, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by garygiac on ecribbage.com
59-70*  ?
94%
94%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 169
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2241 votes)

Monday 3:04 AM
How else would you hold 6 points in the hand and a five to hit any of the remaining 15 face cards?
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4346 votes)

Monday 3:24 AM
Would be nice if I could choose K-9 to slow my opponent, but I'd like 10+ points this hand, so better to start with six than two.

9h lead, so my 2nd card is either another 9 or another heart.
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6856 votes)

Monday 3:39 AM
Agree with above except I would lead the nine of diamonds. It is what it is. dec
Andy (muesli64)

Joined: August 2009 (2340 votes)

Monday 4:37 AM
Didn't need to switch on the grey cells this morning.
james500 says: Hi, hope you're well. Had the 2 also been a heart, would a 2-5-9-K flush have tempted you? Many more helpful cuts to get us into position, but at the expense of two points to our opponent.
zeke76

Joined: August 2018 (1531 votes)

Monday 5:40 AM
When with the trip 9s and 5 just like everyone else.
dgergens

Joined: January 2018 (940 votes)

Monday 7:39 AM
Cheers.
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5496 votes)

Monday 8:46 AM
Yup - so it is! Choosing offense - nothing to defend. Will lead the 9H as intend to rid myself of that lone 5H second card played. Might as well fake the flush. Only hope is that dealer has a 9 and did not want to pair my opening lead. We're in very bad shape and looks like will be playing offense for the remainder of this game. Gotta believe you can win no matter how dire it appears.
joekayak

Joined: May 2016 (1877 votes)

Monday 9:02 AM
"Find some reason the Believe" Bruce Springsteen.
joekayak says: ...to Believe...
horus93

Joined: December 2017 (1330 votes)

Monday 10:37 AM
Should be 100%.

While I hope and pray to keep opponent short of ~86 on this hand I don't stand much of a shot of winning without making it to around or ideally past 70 myself so I'd play offense. Not much to it but to lead the 9H, hopefully get the first "go" and a 15-2 when the other guy leads a X on the second play series.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6172 votes)

Monday 1:51 PM
Lousy cut
LoneStarPegger

Joined: January 2008 (857 votes)

Monday 2:20 PM
Not at desperation offense... Yet
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes)

Monday 3:45 PM
5-9-9-9 keeps 6pts and has 9 cuts for 12pts (AAAA, 6666, 9) plus the 2-K is a reasonably low scoring discard (Est. 4½pts Schell: 4.45) So that's the throw for me.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5704 votes)

Monday 3:47 PM
At 59-70* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W4 %___W5 %
5-9-9-9___7.96+0.98+(-4.43)=4.51____9.9____21.0
5-9-9-K*__5.63+1.20+(-4.52)=2.51____7.6____18.5
2-5-9-9*__4.22+1.59+(-3.81)=2.00____7.5____16.5

Offense______L4 %___L5 %
5-9-9-9______43.9___68.0
5-9-9-K*_____44.8___72.2
2-5-9-9*_____43.6___73.8

5-9-9-9 is best for expected averages by 2.00pts and is significantly best for both Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position. So I'll select 2-K to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead a 9 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead___________Net Pegging Pts.
9__________________(-1.47)
5__________________(-2.70)