April 15, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by garygiac on ecribbage.com
59-70*  ?
94%
2%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 169
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Monday 3:04 AM
How else would you hold 6 points in the hand and a five to hit any of the remaining 15 face cards?
james500
3920 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Monday 3:24 AM
Would be nice if I could choose K-9 to slow my opponent, but I'd like 10+ points this hand, so better to start with six than two.

9h lead, so my 2nd card is either another 9 or another heart.
dec
6355 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:39 AM
Agree with above except I would lead the nine of diamonds. It is what it is. dec
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Monday 4:37 AM
Didn't need to switch on the grey cells this morning.
james500 says: Hi, hope you're well. Had the 2 also been a heart, would a 2-5-9-K flush have tempted you? Many more helpful cuts to get us into position, but at the expense of two points to our opponent.
zeke76
1393 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Monday 5:40 AM
When with the trip 9s and 5 just like everyone else.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Monday 7:39 AM
Cheers.
Ras2829
5151 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Monday 8:46 AM
Yup - so it is! Choosing offense - nothing to defend. Will lead the 9H as intend to rid myself of that lone 5H second card played. Might as well fake the flush. Only hope is that dealer has a 9 and did not want to pair my opening lead. We're in very bad shape and looks like will be playing offense for the remainder of this game. Gotta believe you can win no matter how dire it appears.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Monday 9:02 AM
"Find some reason the Believe" Bruce Springsteen.
joekayak says: ...to Believe...
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Monday 10:37 AM
Should be 100%.

While I hope and pray to keep opponent short of ~86 on this hand I don't stand much of a shot of winning without making it to around or ideally past 70 myself so I'd play offense. Not much to it but to lead the 9H, hopefully get the first "go" and a 15-2 when the other guy leads a X on the second play series.
Gougie00
5727 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Monday 1:51 PM
Lousy cut
LoneStarPegger
811 votes

Joined: January 2008
 
 
 
Monday 2:20 PM
Not at desperation offense... Yet
Coeurdelion
5592 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 3:45 PM
5-9-9-9 keeps 6pts and has 9 cuts for 12pts (AAAA, 6666, 9) plus the 2-K is a reasonably low scoring discard (Est. 4½pts Schell: 4.45) So that's the throw for me.
HalscribCLX
5315 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:47 PM
At 59-70* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W4 %___W5 %
5-9-9-9___7.96+0.98+(-4.43)=4.51____9.9____21.0
5-9-9-K*__5.63+1.20+(-4.52)=2.51____7.6____18.5
2-5-9-9*__4.22+1.59+(-3.81)=2.00____7.5____16.5

Offense______L4 %___L5 %
5-9-9-9______43.9___68.0
5-9-9-K*_____44.8___72.2
2-5-9-9*_____43.6___73.8

5-9-9-9 is best for expected averages by 2.00pts and is significantly best for both Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position. So I'll select 2-K to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead a 9 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead___________Net Pegging Pts.
9__________________(-1.47)
5__________________(-2.70)