Monday 3:04 AM

How else would you hold 6 points in the hand and a five to hit any of the remaining 15 face cards?

   

Monday 3:24 AM

Would be nice if I could choose K-9 to slow my opponent, but I'd like 10+ points this hand, so better to start with six than two.

9h lead, so my 2nd card is either another 9 or another heart.

   

Monday 3:39 AM

Agree with above except I would lead the nine of diamonds. It is what it is. dec

   

Monday 4:37 AM

Didn't need to switch on the grey cells this morning.

Monday 5:40 AM

When with the trip 9s and 5 just like everyone else.

   

Monday 7:39 AM

Cheers.

   

Monday 8:46 AM

Yup - so it is! Choosing offense - nothing to defend. Will lead the 9H as intend to rid myself of that lone 5H second card played. Might as well fake the flush. Only hope is that dealer has a 9 and did not want to pair my opening lead. We're in very bad shape and looks like will be playing offense for the remainder of this game. Gotta believe you can win no matter how dire it appears.

   

Monday 9:02 AM

"Find some reason the Believe" Bruce Springsteen.

   

Monday 10:37 AM

Should be 100%.

While I hope and pray to keep opponent short of ~86 on this hand I don't stand much of a shot of winning without making it to around or ideally past 70 myself so I'd play offense. Not much to it but to lead the 9H, hopefully get the first "go" and a 15-2 when the other guy leads a X on the second play series.

   

Monday 1:51 PM

Lousy cut

   

Monday 2:20 PM

Not at desperation offense... Yet

   

Monday 3:45 PM

5-9-9-9 keeps 6pts and has 9 cuts for 12pts (AAAA, 6666, 9) plus the 2-K is a reasonably low scoring discard (Est. 4½pts Schell: 4.45) So that's the throw for me.

   

Monday 3:47 PM

At 59-70* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W4 %___W5 %
5-9-9-9___7.96+0.98+(-4.43)=4.51____9.9____21.0
5-9-9-K*__5.63+1.20+(-4.52)=2.51____7.6____18.5
2-5-9-9*__4.22+1.59+(-3.81)=2.00____7.5____16.5

Offense______L4 %___L5 %
5-9-9-9______43.9___68.0
5-9-9-K*_____44.8___72.2
2-5-9-9*_____43.6___73.8

5-9-9-9 is best for expected averages by 2.00pts and is significantly best for both Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position. So I'll select 2-K to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead a 9 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead___________Net Pegging Pts.
9__________________(-1.47)
5__________________(-2.70)