April 14, 2019
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Total votes: 147 |
james500 3923 votes Joined: June 2013 |
    Sunday 3:13 AM
* Not going far with any combination of these, so I'll try to prevent Dealer from going too far either with K-8.
* Only the cut of an eight is unhelpful, and there's only 3/46 of them left. * 3-2-6 eleven for maybe 15/2 and 31/2? * Not too worried about a crib flush as there are only 9/46 diamonds left, and lo and behold, I've got away with it as the cut is a heart. |
dec 6358 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Sunday 3:25 AM
I will keep four in case a five is cut. 3-6 not as chancy as 6-8. dec |
Rosemarie44 2052 votes Joined: March 2016 |
    Sunday 3:57 AM
I kept the Flush as 3-6 is safer than 6-8. |
Andy (muesli64) 2223 votes Joined: August 2009 |
    Sunday 4:04 AM
As above. Rosemarie. |
horus93 1281 votes Joined: December 2017 |
    Sunday 5:05 AM
This is a basically defensive position so I halfway considered 6-K but decided the flush was better. |
PalT47 589 votes Joined: March 2017 |
    Sunday 6:00 AM
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PalT47 589 votes Joined: March 2017 |
    Sunday 6:01 AM
With 10 point spread decided to pass on the flush and ship out 6 8 , especially since there was very little synergy beyond a shot at a 15 or 31 for two. Holding the 2 and 3 cards provided the chance for some pegging points as well as hand points. Turning the Q was a nice surprise. |
Gougie00 5730 votes Joined: March 2008 |
    Sunday 8:40 AM
Another hedge. The Flush doesnt look promising. Lead the 3 and play defense. |
LoneStarPegger 811 votes Joined: January 2008 |
    Sunday 1:40 PM
Didn't get too far from first deal at 69. So defense on toss |
HalscribCLX 5318 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Sunday 3:23 PM
At 76-66* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and win/Loss %s are:
________________Dlr's Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total_____W3 %___W4 % 2-8-J-K___6.13+(-2.85)+(-4.62)=(-1.34)____6.9____49.5 2-3-J-K___6.98+(-2.89)+(-5.66)=(-1.57)____8.1____48.1 2-3-8-J___4.93+(-2.70)+(-4.10)=(-1.87)____5.3____46.1 2-3-6-J___4.93+(-2.72)+(-4.21)=(-2.00)____5.5____46.8 Defense_______L3 %___L4 % 2-8-J-K_______4.4____25.4 2-3-J-K_______6.5____28.7 2-3-8-J_______4.2____26.1 2-3-6-J_______4.3____26.3 2-8-J-K is best for expected averages by 0.23pt and although it's almost equal to 2-3-J-K for Win %s it is appreciably lower for Loss %s. After the Q cut I'll lead the 2 and play Defense: Lead____________Dlr's Pegging Pts. 2____________________(-2.24) J____________________(-2.42) K____________________(-2.42) 8____________________(-2.73) |
Ras2829 5154 votes Joined: November 2008 |
    Sunday 9:15 PM
It pays to flush, especially so when we can back-off that 6-8 discard and hold the same number of points. Based on my empirical data, the 3-6 average is 4.812 (943)and 6-8 hits 5.863 ( 833). That's more than a full point favoring the toss of the 3-6. The most frequent discard made by dealer to own crib is 7-8. The 7-7, 7-9, and 6-7 are not far behind. It's def., def., def. for sure, lead the 2 and take pegs that seem reasonably safe. |
dgergens 938 votes Joined: January 2018 |
    Monday 2:15 AM
Better discard to opponents crib and still keep 4 pts. |