April 14, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by LLL100 on ecribbage.com
76-66*  ?
53%
34%
5%
4%
0%
0%
Total votes: 147

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

james500
2107 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 3:13 AM
* Not going far with any combination of these, so I'll try to prevent Dealer from going too far either with K-8.
* Only the cut of an eight is unhelpful, and there's only 3/46 of them left.
* 3-2-6 eleven for maybe 15/2 and 31/2?
* Not too worried about a crib flush as there are only 9/46 diamonds left, and lo and behold, I've got away with it as the cut is a heart.
dec
4443 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 3:25 AM
I will keep four in case a five is cut. 3-6 not as chancy as 6-8. dec
Rosemarie44
1190 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 3:57 AM
I kept the Flush as 3-6 is safer than 6-8.
Andy (muesli64)
1508 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Sunday 4:04 AM
As above. Rosemarie.
horus93
392 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Sunday 5:05 AM
This is a basically defensive position so I halfway considered 6-K but decided the flush was better.
PalT47
444 votes

Joined: March 2017

   
Sunday 6:00 AM
PalT47
444 votes

Joined: March 2017

   
Sunday 6:01 AM
With 10 point spread decided to pass on the flush and ship out 6 8 , especially since there was very little synergy beyond a shot at a 15 or 31 for two. Holding the 2 and 3 cards provided the chance for some pegging points as well as hand points. Turning the Q was a nice surprise.
Gougie00
3868 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 8:40 AM
Another hedge. The Flush doesnt look promising. Lead the 3 and play defense.
LoneStarPegger
605 votes

Joined: January 2008

   
Sunday 1:40 PM
Didn't get too far from first deal at 69. So defense on toss
HalscribCLX
3580 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 3:23 PM
At 76-66* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total_____W3 %___W4 %
2-8-J-K___6.13+(-2.85)+(-4.62)=(-1.34)____6.9____49.5
2-3-J-K___6.98+(-2.89)+(-5.66)=(-1.57)____8.1____48.1
2-3-8-J___4.93+(-2.70)+(-4.10)=(-1.87)____5.3____46.1
2-3-6-J___4.93+(-2.72)+(-4.21)=(-2.00)____5.5____46.8

Defense_______L3 %___L4 %
2-8-J-K_______4.4____25.4
2-3-J-K_______6.5____28.7
2-3-8-J_______4.2____26.1
2-3-6-J_______4.3____26.3

2-8-J-K is best for expected averages by 0.23pt and although it's almost equal to 2-3-J-K for Win %s it is appreciably lower for Loss %s.

After the Q cut I'll lead the 2 and play Defense:

Lead____________Dlr's Pegging Pts.
2____________________(-2.24)
J____________________(-2.42)
K____________________(-2.42)
8____________________(-2.73)
Ras2829
3344 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Sunday 9:15 PM
It pays to flush, especially so when we can back-off that 6-8 discard and hold the same number of points. Based on my empirical data, the 3-6 average is 4.812 (943)and 6-8 hits 5.863 ( 833). That's more than a full point favoring the toss of the 3-6. The most frequent discard made by dealer to own crib is 7-8. The 7-7, 7-9, and 6-7 are not far behind. It's def., def., def. for sure, lead the 2 and take pegs that seem reasonably safe.
dgergens
310 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Monday 2:15 AM
Better discard to opponents crib and still keep 4 pts.