Friday 3:50 AM

A seven cut but A 2 3 might work out also. dec

   

Friday 4:17 AM

Bold strategy with 2-3 in the crib and a hand that increases with every cut except a "4".

   

Friday 5:05 AM

Went more conservative, but I get where dec and rosemarie are coming from given the score.

   

Friday 5:20 AM

Hmmm. While I'm happy to see dec and Rosemarie did the same, I feel like I was getting creative here. Visiting this site makes me overthink or second guess my choices now. It will be interesting to see the numbers because I don't see why tossing the 7's in my crib would not be a good course of action, which was my first inclination.

   

Friday 5:52 AM

Need to back hand and crib as well behind. Therefore 2-3

   

Friday 6:19 AM

Interesting puzzle. Suited 5-7 or 2-3?. Looks like most the people so far opt for 2-3.

   

Friday 6:58 AM

Good puzzle, 3 intriguing choices IMO. Hard to pass up 23, and anything but a 4 helps the hand, as pointed out by Rosemarie.

   

Friday 11:32 AM

A-2, 7-7 or maybe even 5-7c might have merit also.

   

Friday 3:46 PM

The right answer is always 2-3

   

Friday 4:32 PM

A-5-7-7 (2-3), A-2-3-5 (7-7), 3-5-7-7 (A-2) or perhaps A-2-3-7 (5-7C)?:

A-5-7-7: 4pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 10¾pts

A-2-3-5: 3pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.96) = 8¾pts

3-5-7-7: 6pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.23) = 10¼pts

A-2-3-7: 3pts + 6pts (Schell: 6.01) = 9pts

Potential:

A-5-7-7: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 555, 6666, 77, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/12pts with AAA, 2222, 333, 77, 8888 = 16 cuts.

A-2-3-5: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 77, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 7/8pts with AAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555, 77, 9999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts.

3-5-7-7: Improves with AAA, 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 77, 8888 + 16xXs = 39 cuts = 84.8% up to 9/10/12pts with 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 77, 8888 = 20 cuts.

A-2-3-7: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 77, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 6/7/8pts with AAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555, 77 = 18 cuts.

Position:

We're 1pt ahead of position and Pone is 2pts short so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think A-2-3-7 and A-2-3-5 will peg better as both have a magic eleven and low cards.

Summary:

A-5-7-7 has a starting value ½pt higher than 3-5-7-7. Both have a good number of cuts for improvement and a 12pt maximum but A-5-7-7 only has 2 cuts for this (77) and 3-5-7-7 has 20 cuts for 9-12pts while A-5-7-7 has 16 cuts for 8/12pts. So I'll throw A-2.

   

Friday 4:37 PM

At 71*-84 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
A-5-7-7___7.00+(-2.22)+6.77=11.55____14.5____30.7
3-5-7-7___9.00+(-2.28)+3.89=10.61____11.8____27.1
A-2-3-5___6.85+(-2.15)+5.71=10.41____13.7____25.5
A-2-3-7___6.15+(-2.09)+6.04=10.10____10.1____24.2

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
A-5-7-7_______41.1____59.7
3-5-7-7_______41.9____64.2
A-2-3-5_______47.1____66.3
A-2-3-7_______45.5____68.3

A-5-7-7 is best for expected averages by 0.84pt and is significantly best for Win %s and Loss %s. Both these take account of the critical board position so I'll select 2-3 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense) to the lead.

   

Friday 6:32 PM

HalscribCLX has it just right above. Am thinking def., def. until seeing the starter card and then will shift to off., Why? The 9 starter card not likely to be of much help to the 2-3 discard. Know that I have a guaranteed peg, six points in hand, and a likely 4 points in crib. Even with a 4-X discard, crib could reach 7 points; so sitting at 82-85 as non-dealer looks like a few reasonably safe pegs would be helpful.