March 21, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by james500
66-70*  ?
38%
31%
7%
7%
5%
4%
2%
1%
1%
Total votes: 165
dec
6356 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 4:01 AM
In these positions I will attempt to play defense here. It is more about opponent getting non cuts here. Four lead. dec
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 4:42 AM
Not sure if tossing 3-4 is too risky at this position, but expected averages favor this hand over holding the Flush.
dgergens says: I wasn\'t sure either. I don\'t have all the discard point averages memorized. 3,4 are touching, that was enough to push me to defense. Also, I don\'t have the positional logic memorized, so did not know if at 66-70 I was to forge ahead or try hard to hold opponent back.
Rosemarie44 says: I don\'t have all the discard averages memorized either. Ras has mentioned to at least memorize the following cards to our crib as having an average of 6 points or better. (in order of highest to lowest):5-5, 2-3, 5-J, 5-6, 5-K, 5-T, 5-Q, 4-5, 7-8, 3-3. Further, here are the Lowest discards to opponent\'s crib that usually are only around 2 points in value to n-d\'s crib: 6-Q, 6-K, 9-Q, T-Q, Q-K, T-K (lowest). I, too am not sure about positional strategy - maybe Ras or someone else can answer this more fully.
james500 says: Hi both. For what it\'s worth, my take on dgergen\'s positional query is: The \"rule of 26\" states that, when dealing a player will score an average of 16 points between hand, crib and pegs, and 10 as Pone between hand and pegs. This means that a player will be on course to win if they are dealing from 95: sixteen points takes them to hole 111, and then 10 points as Pone in the subsequent hand makes 121. From this we can extrapolate the previous target/par holes for Dealer: 26 holes prior to 95 is 69, minus another 26 is 43, minus another 26 is hole 17. In this puzzle, the dealer is at 70 (just beyond the target of 69), we as Pone are very likely to be beyond 69 when deal in the next hand. To my mind, if we can slow the Dealer so that they score less than the average 16 here, we stand a better chance to reclaim the advantage by becoming the first to deal from/beyond 95, than we would by playing aggressively in order to reach the same goal.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi james500: Thank you for your reminder about the par holes relative to position.
Coeurdelion says: Don\'t forget that if Pone is at 111pts and averages 10pts we only have a 50% chance of winning rather than \'on target\'. Hence Ras\'s CPZ\'s. The deeper in the CPZ the better chance of winning. Also some of us prefer to use 18, 44, 70 and 96pts as 25pt average is more realistic in last stage of game. These are positional holes, I always think much less confusing than par holes as per DeLynn Colvert which vary depending on whether you are First Pone or Dealer.
Guest says: Thank you Coeurdelion. I have 18, 44,70, 96 in my notes but labeled as par holes. Corrected notes to CPZ\'s. Rosemarie44
zeke76
1394 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Thursday 4:46 AM
I’m with Rosemarie
glmccuskey
4099 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Thursday 5:02 AM
Defense. Lead the four.
mfetchCT425
1397 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 5:25 AM
I will retain hand and most points today. This hand has possibility of up to 16 points with a 7 cut. Cuts of A, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 will give us anywhere from 9 to 16 points. Too many cuts to throw this hand away in my opinion. Terrible cut for us. Will lead the 2.
Gougie00
5728 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 5:29 AM
I would have looked foolish if a 6-7-8 were cut. I thought I needed some points and there is not an obvious discard here. Lead the 8 and use the 234 to peg with.

First whole day of spring! Lets hope the snow is all over until December.
dgergens says: Isn\'t a 6,7 in dealer\'s crib kind of dangerous?
Gougie00 says: Yeah, suited 67 is dangerous. Occasionally you will get toasted. I dont like the 34 for the same reason and holding the flush might be only a 4 hand. I have to give myself a chance to win.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Thursday 6:24 AM
Chose defense. Same starting points as flush but better cards (for me) in dealer's crib.
james500
3921 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Thursday 7:05 AM
I agree with taking a defensive approach here, better to slow my opponent by a hole or two, than to progress an extra hole or two myself.
4 lead.
King Richard
2825 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 8:19 AM
Often your opponent’s position means as much or more than yours. Good example here. Dealing first at or past Hole 70 is a big deal. Got to thwart the other side of the board here. It the King’s humble opinion!
Rosemarie44 says: Thank you King Richard for your response to our inquiry.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 8:46 AM
Dec is probably right. Need more defence. But anyway 3 - 4 is not usually too dangerous.
Jazzselke
2585 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 8:54 AM
We will get to at least Hole 71 and hopefully hold back the dealer. Only a face card cut does not improve our hand. 34 or 67 too dangerous
Jazzselke
2585 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 8:56 AM
We will get to at least Hole 71 and hopefully hold back the dealer. Only a face card cut does not improve our hand. 34 or 67 too dangerous
Guest says: Tommny Two Times
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Thursday 9:13 AM
I like the flush as a balance between a fairly safe discard and a fairly good hand. I definitely wouldn't want to toss 3-4 at this position but our own surplus is not so great that I can totally disregard our hand score.
horus93 says: And after the cut, which helps us a bit and doesn\'t obviously help the crib, I\'d play cautious offense and lead the 4
horus93 says: It does help the crib, rather, but still, holding only 6 points I\'d pursue safe pegs. If dealer is playing his position he\'ll pair my four if he can and then I can pick up 2 points with my 7.
Coeurdelion
5593 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Thursday 3:22 PM
2-6-7-8 (3-4), 3-4-6-7 (2-8), 2-3-4-8 (6-7) or 3-6-7-8 (2-4)?:

2-6-7-8: 7pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.96) = +1¼pts

3-4-6-7: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.94) = -1pt

2-3-4-8: 5pts - 6pts (Schell: 6.42) = -1pt

3-6-7-8: 5pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.33) = -¼pt

Potential:

2-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 24 = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 10/11/14/16pts with 222, 555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 19 cuts.

3-4-6-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 8/9/11pts with 222, 444, 555, 666, 888 = 15 cuts.

2-3-4-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/9/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 888 = 20 cuts
3-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 8/12pts with 555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 16 cuts.

Position:

Dealer is in position but we only need 4pts to reach 3rd street positional hole of 70pts so I'll play Offense but cautiously.

Pegging:

All the hands will peg quite well but I think 2-3-4-8 will peg best and the flush will be harder to read.

Summary:

2-6-7-8 has fewer cuts for improvement but starts with 1½/2¼pts more and has 19 cuts for 10-16pts. It will also peg well so I think its worth risking the 3-4 throw.
HalscribCLX
5316 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 3:42 PM
At 66-70* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W4 %____W5 %
2-6-7-8___9.46+1.30+(-5.42)=5.34____39.9____40.6
2-3-4-8___8.28+2.17+(-5.62)=4.83____38.0____39.9
3-4-6-7___7.02+1.96+(-4.45)=4.53____32.6____38.6
3-6-7-8___7.46+1.33+(-4.80)=3.99____33.0____38.6

Offense______L4 %____L5 %
2-6-7-8______50.5____44.2
2-3-4-8______50.8____45.1
3-4-6-7______47.1____47.0
3-6-7-8______48.0____47.1

2-6-7-8 is best for expected averages by 0.51pt and is slightly best for Win %s. It is not lowest for Loss %s because of the risk of the throw but even so I'll select
3-4 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the 7 and play Defense:

Lead_________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
7__________________(-2.13)
2__________________(-2.20)
8__________________(-2.26)
6__________________(-2.40)
Ras2829
5152 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 5:39 PM
Was not thinking of offense at the outset. Am not after seeing the starter card either. Dealer needs to be at hole 69-73 on 3rd street And is there. I'll be there no matter which cards I retain. So best thing I can do is to minimize dealer pegs as 3-4 or 6-7 are both dangerous discards to opponent. These discard pairs are not spectacular when discarded to self although do very nicely when tossed on the other side of the board. Reason for that is most frequent discard of the 91 is 7-8 and second most frequent is the 2-3, making the 6-7 and 3-4 quite dangerous when discarded. They don't work well in own crib for the reason that you will seldom get 7-8, 2-3, or a five spot as a discard from non-dealer. Lead the 7 to break the 3-card sequence and escape with the deuce. Will likely be playing a defense strategy for the remainder of this game.