Wednesday 3:54 AM

Hit or miss on their crib that is. Hopefully can peg on the low cards at the end. Thats my strat right or wrong. dec

   

Wednesday 4:01 AM

Agree with dec. This is the best hand that has the highest average expected hand and the highest maximum of 2-9 points. It's all on win/loss percentages I believe.

   

Wednesday 4:29 AM

Agree with dec & Rosemarie, that is the best hand for scoring statistically speaking. No way I'm putting 8,9 in dealer's crib at 107-104. Kept the A for a possible 31.

   

Wednesday 4:56 AM

Cautious gets thrown out the window. I played it for a 2 or 3 cut and mission accomplished. Lead the Queen and perhaps parlay the A2 at the end.

Tall order today. Crappy hand and a long way to go.

   

Wednesday 5:31 AM

Who counts first next deal? That's the key to the choice made on this deal. My hope is to score as much as possible now, can't get out, though want to get as close as possible to end of board. That means holding A-2-Q-Q, lead the Queen of diamonds, and take reasonably safe pegs. Knowing that I have 8 points after seeing the starter card, will take any pegs offered, hoping to be close enough as dealer of next hand to peg out. Will HalscribCLX choose defense?

   

Wednesday 5:46 AM

Balk the crib and hope to make it to another hand. Of course, we’ll probably need to peg out in that hand. Really not likely to win no matter what.

   

Wednesday 5:48 AM

Hoping for a 2 or 3 cut also. If not one of them, a 4,5 or Q helps a little too.

Hope my Q lead is paired.

   

Wednesday 6:10 AM

I'm with zeke. Trying to baulk the crib and play to get another count. I feel 8,9 to crib is too much of a gamble.

   

Wednesday 7:15 AM

Opponent has 3 counts to get 17 points. If we don't get close enough to peg out next hand at least a 90% chance we will lose anyhow. 89 is an "all or nothing" throw. Maybe they threw 5X and only have 4 points.

   

Wednesday 7:19 AM

I either go out this hand, or I stop my opponent. I chose the latter. 9-Q to opponent's crib. Looking at the stats from Liam Brown's site, I don't think the extra expected 0.7 points is worth tossing the A-9. Based on everyone else, I'm probably wrong. Oh well. High of 9C today, and 17C tomorrow! March comes in like a lion and out like a lamb.

   

Wednesday 7:38 AM

What zeke said. A-2-Q-Q fails on too many cuts for me to risk tossing 8-9 and it only score 9 points at best.

   

Wednesday 8:35 AM

Went with more defensive toss, A-9. 3 and 5 cuts still help us get down the board. I do see and like the logic of those above who tossed 8-9. I usually like aggressive play when close to home. Quoting the great Rob Medeiros, “Play aggressively when the end is in sight, and many times you will be rewarded”. I’m still trying to learn all the intricacies of this great game.

   

Wednesday 6:18 PM

A-2-Q-Q (8-9) or perhaps 8-9-Q-Q (A-2):

A-2-Q-Q: 2pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.83) = -3¾pts

8-9-Q-Q: 2pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.07) = -3pts

Potential:

A-2-Q-Q: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 4444, 5555, QQ = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 6/8/9pts = 222, 3333, 4444, 5555, QQ = 17 cuts.

8-9-Q-Q: Improves with 5555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 10101010, QQ = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 5/6/7pts with 5555, 7777, 10101010, QQ = 14 cuts.

Position:

We need 14pts to hold out but with this hand we're unlikely to get close. With Dealer only needing 17pts I think they're too close for us to play Defense.

Summary:

A-2-Q-Q has fewer cuts for improvement but has 17 cuts for 6-9pts. 8-9-Q-Q has slightly more cuts for improvement but only 14 cuts for 5-7pts. A-2-Q-Q has also a better chance I believe to peg the 5pts we need if we get the 3 cut for 9pts. So I'll throw the 8-9.

   

Wednesday 6:19 PM

At 107-104* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging Win %s are:

Offense___________W1 %____W2 %
A-2-Q-Q___________0.4_____6.2
8-9-Q-Q___________0.2_____6.8
A-2-9-Q___________0.1_____6.4
2-8-Q-Q___________0.1_____7.3
2-9-Q-Q___________0.0_____7.0
A-9-Q-Q___________0.0_____6.8
2-8-9-Q___________0.0_____6.8
8-9-Q-Q___________0.2_____6.8
A-8-Q-Q___________0.0_____6.7
A-8-9-Q___________0.0_____6.6
A-2-8-Q___________0.0_____6.3
A-2-8-9___________0.0_____3.9

By a slim margin 2-8-Q-Q is best for Win %s so I'll select A-9 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead a Q and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Pts.
Q___________________1.23
2___________________0.94
8___________________0.82

   

Wednesday 9:01 PM

Very interesting