March 13, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
107-104*  ?
33%
33%
12%
12%
10%
10%
7%
7%
7%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 165
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6858 votes)

Wednesday 3:54 AM
Hit or miss on their crib that is. Hopefully can peg on the low cards at the end. Thats my strat right or wrong. dec
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2243 votes)

Wednesday 4:01 AM
Agree with dec. This is the best hand that has the highest average expected hand and the highest maximum of 2-9 points. It's all on win/loss percentages I believe.
dgergens

Joined: January 2018 (940 votes)

Wednesday 4:29 AM
Agree with dec & Rosemarie, that is the best hand for scoring statistically speaking. No way I'm putting 8,9 in dealer's crib at 107-104. Kept the A for a possible 31.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6174 votes)

Wednesday 4:56 AM
Cautious gets thrown out the window. I played it for a 2 or 3 cut and mission accomplished. Lead the Queen and perhaps parlay the A2 at the end.

Tall order today. Crappy hand and a long way to go.
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5496 votes)

Wednesday 5:31 AM
Who counts first next deal? That's the key to the choice made on this deal. My hope is to score as much as possible now, can't get out, though want to get as close as possible to end of board. That means holding A-2-Q-Q, lead the Queen of diamonds, and take reasonably safe pegs. Knowing that I have 8 points after seeing the starter card, will take any pegs offered, hoping to be close enough as dealer of next hand to peg out. Will HalscribCLX choose defense?
zeke76

Joined: August 2018 (1531 votes)

Wednesday 5:46 AM
Balk the crib and hope to make it to another hand. Of course, we’ll probably need to peg out in that hand. Really not likely to win no matter what.
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4348 votes)

Wednesday 5:48 AM
Hoping for a 2 or 3 cut also. If not one of them, a 4,5 or Q helps a little too.

Hope my Q lead is paired.
polynumeral

Joined: December 2008 (4910 votes)

Wednesday 6:10 AM
I'm with zeke. Trying to baulk the crib and play to get another count. I feel 8,9 to crib is too much of a gamble.
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2867 votes)

Wednesday 7:15 AM
Opponent has 3 counts to get 17 points. If we don't get close enough to peg out next hand at least a 90% chance we will lose anyhow. 89 is an "all or nothing" throw. Maybe they threw 5X and only have 4 points.
travelingman2019 says: need 14, cut gives you 8 and with good pegging you can close the door possibly pegging out next hand....
travelingman2019 says: a 12 crib is worst case scenario, but as you said, you may lose anyway so the best bet is to peg and as close to 121 as you can.....that 12 crib could close the deal, but anything else gives you a chance to pull this out....
wasa

Joined: November 2014 (3392 votes)

Wednesday 7:19 AM
I either go out this hand, or I stop my opponent. I chose the latter. 9-Q to opponent's crib. Looking at the stats from Liam Brown's site, I don't think the extra expected 0.7 points is worth tossing the A-9. Based on everyone else, I'm probably wrong. Oh well. High of 9C today, and 17C tomorrow! March comes in like a lion and out like a lamb.
horus93

Joined: December 2017 (1330 votes)

Wednesday 7:38 AM
What zeke said. A-2-Q-Q fails on too many cuts for me to risk tossing 8-9 and it only score 9 points at best.
mfetchCT425

Joined: February 2009 (1632 votes)

Wednesday 8:35 AM
Went with more defensive toss, A-9. 3 and 5 cuts still help us get down the board. I do see and like the logic of those above who tossed 8-9. I usually like aggressive play when close to home. Quoting the great Rob Medeiros, “Play aggressively when the end is in sight, and many times you will be rewarded”. I’m still trying to learn all the intricacies of this great game.
james500 says: Hi Mike, hope you\'re well. Nearly 11,000 IRP to your name suggests that you know the intricacies worth knowing!
mfetchCT425 says: Thanks James for the kind words. Always enjoy when we get to play each other in the ACC Online Tournaments. All the best.
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes)

Wednesday 6:18 PM
A-2-Q-Q (8-9) or perhaps 8-9-Q-Q (A-2):

A-2-Q-Q: 2pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.83) = -3¾pts

8-9-Q-Q: 2pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.07) = -3pts

Potential:

A-2-Q-Q: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 4444, 5555, QQ = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 6/8/9pts = 222, 3333, 4444, 5555, QQ = 17 cuts.

8-9-Q-Q: Improves with 5555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 10101010, QQ = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 5/6/7pts with 5555, 7777, 10101010, QQ = 14 cuts.

Position:

We need 14pts to hold out but with this hand we're unlikely to get close. With Dealer only needing 17pts I think they're too close for us to play Defense.

Summary:

A-2-Q-Q has fewer cuts for improvement but has 17 cuts for 6-9pts. 8-9-Q-Q has slightly more cuts for improvement but only 14 cuts for 5-7pts. A-2-Q-Q has also a better chance I believe to peg the 5pts we need if we get the 3 cut for 9pts. So I'll throw the 8-9.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5706 votes)

Wednesday 6:19 PM
At 107-104* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging Win %s are:

Offense___________W1 %____W2 %
A-2-Q-Q___________0.4_____6.2
8-9-Q-Q___________0.2_____6.8
A-2-9-Q___________0.1_____6.4
2-8-Q-Q___________0.1_____7.3
2-9-Q-Q___________0.0_____7.0
A-9-Q-Q___________0.0_____6.8
2-8-9-Q___________0.0_____6.8
8-9-Q-Q___________0.2_____6.8
A-8-Q-Q___________0.0_____6.7
A-8-9-Q___________0.0_____6.6
A-2-8-Q___________0.0_____6.3
A-2-8-9___________0.0_____3.9

By a slim margin 2-8-Q-Q is best for Win %s so I'll select A-9 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead a Q and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Pts.
Q___________________1.23
2___________________0.94
8___________________0.82
LoneStarPegger

Joined: January 2008 (857 votes)

Wednesday 9:01 PM
Very interesting