Saturday 3:14 AM

Two fewer points than 5-J-Q-K but:
-More helpful cuts,
-Better pegging options with four distinct card values, rather than 3 cards worth 10,
-What feels to me, (others with the charts/tables can prove/disprove), a safer discard. I'm thinking particularly about the negative delta of a 5 and J both being out of circulation.

   

Saturday 3:28 AM

I like starting with 9 points rather than 7 points and a maximum of 17/18 vs. 17 points. Let's see what Ras and Hal have say for today's hand.

   

Saturday 4:01 AM

This is more about a non cut for opponent. I mean little to no points in the hands for them. Playing to win still. Four lead. dec

   

Saturday 5:14 AM

A philosophical question of how lucky you feel. Feel like a JQK will be cut, play it that way. If you want to play a little defensive toss KQ.

Lead the 4

   

Saturday 6:00 AM

This is the better balk and still a very good hand.

Definitely defense after the cut, I'd lead the 4 and drop the 5 asap. J for an out.

   

Saturday 6:53 AM

What horus93 said.

   

Saturday 6:59 AM

Normally 4 - 6 is better but too risky in this position.

   

Saturday 7:15 AM

I need to stop opponent so safer Q-K today.

   

Saturday 2:20 PM

It seems to be 5-J-Q-K (4-6) vs. 4-5-6-J (Q-K):

5-J-Q-K: 9pts - 5½pts (Schell: 5.34) = +3½pts

4-5-6-J: 7pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.49) = +2½pts

Potential:

5-J-Q-K: Improves with 555 + 13xXs = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 12/16/17pts with all cuts. Plus 12 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

4-5-6-J: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 13xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 11/14/16pts with 444, 555, 666, JJJ = 12 cuts. Plus 12 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

Position:

Dealer is in position (+1pt) and we're way behind we need to hold points in the hand but also keep Dealer short in the pegging and crib. I'll peg defensively.

Pegging:

I think we can peg Defensively with 4-5-6-J by leading the 4 and using the J as an out card and try to split the 5-6 up.

Summary:

4-5-6-J has more cuts for improvement and still 12 cuts for 11-16pts but 5-J-Q-K starts with a full 1pt more and the 16 cuts for improvement all score 12-17pts. Although the 4-6 is riskier I'll go with it.

   

Saturday 2:27 PM

At 88-97* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs____Crib___Total___W1 %___W2 %
5-J-Q-K___11.41+(-2.89)+(-5.08)=3.44____0.0____10.9
4-5-6-J____9.98+(-3.00)+(-4.10)=2.88____0.0_____8.7

Defense______L1 %___L2 %
5-J-Q-K______6.6____54.4
4-5-6-J______5.8____52.6

5-J-Q-K is better for expected averages by 0.56pt and is slightly better for Win %s and Loss %s so I'll select 4-6 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the K and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead___________Net Pegging Pts.
K__________________(-1.23)
Q__________________(-1.25)
J__________________(-1.25)
5__________________(-2.05)

   

Saturday 8:29 PM

HalscribCLX shows the numbers. With opponent already at hole 97 and dealing, I'll diverge from the above by choosing def., def., SAFE. Will lead the Jack rather than the K. The Jack is the most frequent X-pointer pitched to crib by dealer and chances for pairing are minimized. That occurs with 10-J, J-Q, J-J, 5-J and the Jack is favored over the King with small card or mid-card toss. Don't want dealer to pair my King and dealer will hold the K with hundreds of hands ( A-2-3-J-Q-K, A-A-4-10-J-K, 2-3-4-J-Q-K, 6-7-8-J-Q-K, ad infinitum. You can test this statement by taking a deck of cards and pulling a variety of hands which include a 10-J or J-Q with a King with any three other cards. You'll run out of space on an 81/2x11 sheet of lined paper to list all the hands. When you look at them on your deal, the King will remain and the Jack will be in your crib. So will lead the Jack and advance the count with the Q. That gives opponent less ability to read my hand. After seeing my J-Q in succession, the hand could go up from the Queen or down from the Jack. If I advance the count with the King, the read will be Queen remaining. Play all the angles. If you do that regularly you will improve your winning percentage. That applies to other cards as well If you show me 2-4, I read a trey If you show me 3-4 instead, the hand can go either way and you complicate the "read".