February 15, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
117-117*  ?
57%
16%
7%
3%
3%
3%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 156
dec
6351 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:33 AM
Ace thru Eight 28 cuts compared to Nine thru King 20 cuts. That was my first dilemma, checked, solved. Second is pegging. No jack cut that is good, The Ace is a common keep, no, so only three responses immediate also on the two so hoping the worst is three pegged during this sequence compared to the eight lead ,four sevens I went that way. dec
Hillchem says: I\'ve always followed Colvert\'s advice here. I think it says that a low card is the defensive play, unless you know the whereabouts of three scoring replies (in this case, looking for three 7s or 8s). What are other people\'s thoughts on this?
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Friday 3:42 AM
Do you feel lucky? Need 4 points to win, get to count first, have 2 points in hand. So we need 2 more points by spinning or by pegging. I scratched this out on paper which wouldn't normally do in a game. But if you discard 10,J or 2,J, you have 8 cuts that get you the points, and A,2 or A,J, you have 7 cuts that get you there. So went with 2,J so I have magic 11 (which doesn't really seem like it could help me). Anyway, 8 cut solved my dilemma. Just have to play defense now.
dgergens says: When I said 8 and 7 cuts, I was using numbers, I didn\'t multiply each number by how many cards available since 8 cut was common to all scenarios.
zeke76
1389 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Friday 4:20 AM
I like dec’s logic.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Friday 4:55 AM
End games are tough for me to call. Let's see where this falls in the analysis today.
Gougie00
5723 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Friday 5:03 AM
I tossed 10-J. Lead the Ace and play off.
james500
3916 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Friday 6:25 AM
I see A-2-8-8, but wonder whether there's any merit in keeping hold of the Jack for the 11/46 chance of the "bonus" point?
Cuts of any non-club 2,3,9,10,Q or K won't add to this hand (18/46). I'd consider a Jack cut unhelpful too, as the two points added to Dealer's guaranteed peg, puts them at 120.

Only three scoring replies to the Ace lead, and five to the lead of 8C. Ace lead then.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Friday 8:47 AM
As long as I don't cut 9 thru King I should be okay. Lead the Ace.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Friday 9:11 AM
More cuts for 4+ points than other throws. With the rest-lead the Ace.
Ras2829
5146 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Friday 11:06 AM
After seeing the starter card, only way dealer can win is to peg four points. Since RAS wins with first count, it’s def., def., SAFE for me. In chossing the four cards to hold, it’s strictly numbers. There are 28 cards that put me out with holding A-2-8-8 (AAA, 222, 3333, 4444, 5555, 5555, 7777, and 88). If holding 8-8-10-J, there are 24 cuts that do the trick (5555, 7777, 88, 9999, 101010, JJJ, and QQQQ). Also the same number of cuts would put me out if holding A-8-8-J (AAA, 4444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 88, and JJJ. Although leading Ace or 8 are about equal because of the bias to holding small cards in end-game (A-4). Will choose the Ace as lead for two reasons. Only three cards will score on it and it rids my hand of one of the mjost dangerous cards to hold until end of pegging sequence. Many games are lost when non-dealer holds a lone Ace to get hung up between dealer pair of bullets. Want the dealer to have to work for every peg. Four pegs usually requires help from the non-dealer. Dealer is much harder to stop when needing three pegs. So I believe that I have a good chance to chalk up a win here.
Guest says: Thank you Ras for your detailed instructions. I have a better handle on what cards to choose in the future. Rosemarie44
Ras2829 says: Thanks Rosemarie44. BTW what should be going through dealer mind in this and other end-game situations? A, 2, 3, 4, 5 have high pegging value, 6, 7, 8, 9 have moderate pegging value, J has low pegging value. The 10, Q, K have no pegging value. This is an excellent guide for choosing the four cards of the six which on average will do the most pegging. If holding two middle cards as the dealer down here settle on 6-7, 6-8, 7-9, or 8-9. Those choices cover any middle card in play either as a pair or 15-2. The 6-9 misses the 7-8. The 7-8 misses 6-9. What are chances that dealer could hold non-dealer to three holes? There\'s 1 in 34 chances to do that. Dealer needing four pegs needs to grab the first two that show. Dealer needing three can pass up the opening lead. As non-dealer don\'t get cute and believe you can peg out before the dealer does. Dealer has huge advantage on the board. Average non-dealer pegs about 1.8 pegs. Those that refine their pegging game to the utmost as n/d hit 2.0 or 2.1. The average dealer pegs 3.5-3.6. Some exceptional offensive peggers as dealer hit 4.0. So dealer pegs twice as much as does the non-dealer. There are a few hands only that give n/d the chance to out peg the dealer. If you would like to know what they look like, email raswino29@outlook.com.
joekayak says: I tried that email address for you Ras. It didn\'t work. Is there an alternate?
Ras2829 says: Hi joekayak: Am surprised that raswino29@outloo.com does not work for you as I receive E-mails most days from folks on this site. In my posting above the E-mail address appears at the end of a sentence. Could it be that you included the period following com?
mfetchCT425 says: Ras, could one of those hands be 2-3-4-6? Love this hand as n/d. I have also done well with hands like 2-3-4-8 and 3-4-5-8, when pegging aggressively, leading the 8, it often traps dealer when they are holding 5-X-X-X or 5-5-X-X type hands. If the dump a “10” card, I can then trap their 5 for a run of 3 and a go. Sweet!!
mfetchCT425 says: Last sentence should say: if they dump a 10 card...
james500 says: Very interesting discussion here. With regards Joe\'s query about the Email address, I think that there\'s a \"K\" missing. I believe it should finish \"@outlooK.com\".
Ras2829 says: Hi james500: You\'re pretty observant although in the longer paragraph, the \"k\" is present. It\'s raswino29@outlook.com
Ras2829 says: Hi mfetchCT425: Right on! Another is A-4-5-6 with the lead of the A. Works just like 2-3-4-6 except you have the five left after scoring the 15-2 and losing the count at 31-2. The A-4-5-6 works wo well with the Ace lead as folks love to make the count 11. Both are great non-dealer hands which will most often outpeg the dealer.
mfetchCT425
1394 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Friday 4:15 PM
Fantastic analyses from Ras and agree with him and others who held A-2-8-8. I would also lead the A.