February 11, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by james500
67*-59  ?
37%
34%
22%
3%
1%
Total votes: 182

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

dec
4575 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 3:41 AM
I like a few chances of 13-16 points here. Not counting on a crib with A-4 or pegging traps carrying 4-6-7-8. dec
Rosemarie44
1317 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 3:51 AM
I can't believe that it pays to Flush today!!! Thirty-seven cuts keep that hand at 6 or 8 points. By tossing 4-Q we have 24 cuts that increase the value of this hand to a maximum of 16 points. His nob gives us 2 points right off. Maybe it will help our crib, too.
zeke76
328 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Monday 4:47 AM
Doesn’t do much for the crib, but I like 7 in the hand.
james500
2229 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 4:48 AM
Curious to see how the flush performs. Every cut helps somewhere.
Gougie00
3995 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 4:51 AM
I'll toss 4-Q and lead the 7.
glmccuskey
3051 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Monday 5:05 AM
I’ll lead the eight and take safe pegs only.
wasa
1320 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Monday 5:39 AM
The flush provides the guaranteed minimum of 8 points (hand + crib) while tossing 4-Q has a guaranteed min of only 7. Both choices, according to Mr. Brown have an expected average of 13.0 points so I'll take the extra sure point. If I needed to gamble on the cut, keeping the run would be, to me, the way to go.
dgergens
379 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Monday 7:17 AM
Thought maybe the answer today was put 5 in your crib. But I preferred the known 7 points to the 5 + unknown crib; wanted to widen that lead as much as possible. I wasn't smart enough as wasa to figure out the flush was a minimum 8 point hand. But I gotta think the chance for a double run makes the A,6,7,8 a statistically better hand.
cribbagepogo
2856 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 7:19 AM
Rather has the 1/4 in my crib.
horus93
501 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Monday 8:58 AM
I like A-4 in the crib and the chance for a 5 trap but it appears my thinking today was, as so often, sub-optimal
mfetchCT425
367 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Monday 10:28 AM
Keeping points intact in hand giving us possibilities for 14 or 16. Will peg aggressively.
Coeurdelion
3917 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 3:14 PM
A-6-7-8 (4-Q), A-4-8-Q (6-7) or perhaps 6-7-8-Q (A-4):

A-6-7-8: 7pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.59) = 10½pts

A-4-8-Q: 6pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.98) = 11pts

6-7-8-Q: 5pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 10¼pts

Potential:

A-6-7-8: Improves with AAA, 2222, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 10/13/14/16pts with AAA, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 16 cuts.

A-4-8-Q: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 444, 5555, 666, 777, 888 = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 10pts with AAA, 444, QQQ = 9 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

6-7-8-Q: Improves with AAA, 2222, 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999, QQQ = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 8/10/12pts with 5555, 666, 777, 888, 9999 = 17 cuts.

Position:

We're 3pts short of positional hole but have a good lead. I'll play Offense to try to increase it.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think all these hands will peg well. Perhaps the flush best.

Summary:

The flush starts with ½pt more and has a further 0.20pt for a diamond cut but although A-6-7-8 starts with ½pt less and has slightly less cuts for improvement it has 16 cuts for 10-16pts. So I'll throw the 4-Q.
HalscribCLX
3697 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 3:20 PM
At 67*-59 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
A-4-8-Q___8.41+2.98+4.70=16.09____35.5____60.4
A-6-7-8___9.54+3.11+3.41=16.06____36.5____60.0
6-7-8-Q___7.20+3.15+5.42=15.77____33.6____57.9

Offense_______L4 %____L5 %
A-4-8-Q_______12.5____27.1
A-6-7-8_______12.8____27.1
6-7-8-Q_______13.3____28.9

The flush is very slightly best for expected averages by 0.03pt and is very slightly lowest for Loss %s. A-6-7-8 is slightly best for Win %s so its very close between these two choices but I'll select the suited 6-7 and keep the flush.

After the J cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
Ras2829
3463 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 3:41 PM
It pays to flush and in this case the only card that does not add value is a non-diamond 9. It's off., off., off for me. At hole 69 after turning the Jack will play on the lead. There's another lesson for those who wish to analyze this. In hands of A-4-6-7-8-X, the 4-X is the correct discard as dealer or n/d. Holding the Ace with 6-7-8 has greater potential value than giving up two points in hand to toss A-4 in own crib. Not so with 2-3-6-7-8-X; it's the 2-3 to own crib every time. There are very few discards to own crib(8/91) that are worth a sacrifice in hand score to place in crib. If you would like to know what those discards are and how much in hand score can be sacrificed to make them, E-mail raswino29@outlook.com.
Andy (muesli64)
1562 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Monday 4:27 PM
I am behind where I should be so think I should go for the hand which gives me the best chance of a double run. Given there is very little in between the two options numerically.