February 10, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by glmccuskey
65*-55  ?
33%
32%
13%
7%
5%
4%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 156
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 3:19 AM
Holding this hand as it increases with every cut. Liam shows that tossing 2-7 or 2-6 results with the same combined expected averages of 15.10 points (average expected hand 11.70 and average expected crib 3.40).
There is a difference with the value of the crib toss using Ras's figures: 2-7 is valued 3.78 and 2-6 is valued at 4.15. Apparently due to what opponent tosses our way? Let's see what others decide with today's hand.
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:25 AM
Use all of the possible cuts. Situational pegging play on some , playoff too. dec
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Sunday 5:30 AM
I'll go with 2-6 also.
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 5:43 AM
I like the 5-6 here. The cut doesnt help the hand much.
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Sunday 6:35 AM
I see the 2-6 option, but I'm curious to see how discarding 5-6 might pan out. Interesting puzzle Gary.

7 reply to an X lead:
X(10)-7(17)-X(27)-2(29)-go.
X(10)-7(17)-5(22)-6(28/3+1).
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Sunday 7:09 AM
5-6 is a great toss, worth breaking up a mediocre double run like 5-6-6-7. imo. Discard pro disagrees with me by 0.3 but the odds are being pulled up by the chance of a triple run.
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 7:54 AM
RAS misled thousands of crib players by instructing them in live play, class, and on video that discarding 5-6 from this hand was the way to go. Began to suspect that was not the case. So did 1,000 simulations, and holding the double run turned out to be the better choice by about a point. This was verified by queries on Halscrib, REX, and Cribbage Prof. As a result, I have dropped this hand from more recent editions of "Double Run Hypnosis". Thanks glmccuskey for reminding me to check the ACC website to see if the most recent version of that paper is posted. The high scoring 5-6 discard assures a crib on average of three points more than does the 2-7 or 2-6. The double run scores on average three points more and pegs much better for the dealer. So the double run ends up with a combined value of 1 point better. At hole 65 it's off., off., off. for me. Moving down the board is of more importance to me than playing defensively to minimize opponent score. Since paying offense pegging strategy, that means will take the 15-2 with the five spot, keeping 6-7-7 intact. If choosing defense, playing the 6 on a X lead is the correct choice, often closing the count with the 5 for 31-2.
Guest says: I love hands that have both a 2-card eleven and a trap for a 5 leftover. A similar scoring play is why I’d rather have 3-3-4-8 than 3-4-4-8 as dealer. Hillchem
Ras2829 says: Hi Hillchem: You\'re right on both points. Good to see as pegging is such a vital part of the game. Hands that peg potentially well for dealer are often poor choices for pegging if non-dealer. This is one of those.
Ras2829 says: Should have read Rosemarie44 post as came on the site. She is absolutely correct on my empirical data. Should have looked at it and would have discarded 2-6. BTW the reason that the 2-6 has the higher average is that it scores 38% more cribs of 8-11 points. That alone is enough to give it the higher average. The 2-7 does slightly better in all other categories. Have discarded 2-6 628 and 2-7 823 times and recorded the results in live play. That\'s pretty scant empirical evidence as like to have 1,000 as a minimum sample.
wasa
3018 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Sunday 8:25 AM
What Rosemarie said. Same expected average but min 10 points combined.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Sunday 12:20 PM
I think its 2-6, 2-7 or 5-6?:

5-6-7-7: 8pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.93) = 12pts

5-6-6-7: 8pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.81) = 12pts

2-6-7-7: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 12½pts

Potential:

5-6-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 66, 77, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 12/14/15/16pts with 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 66, 77, 8888 = 22 cuts.

5-6-6-7: Improves with 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 66, 77, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14/15/16pts with 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 66, 77, 8888, 9999 = 26 cuts.

2-6-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 555, 66, 77, 8888, 9999 = 22 cuts = 47.8% up to 12/16pts with 222, 555, 66, 77, 8888 = 14 cuts.

Position:

We're ahead but as I'm 5pts short of position I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 5-6-6-7 and 5-6-7-7 will peg better.

Summary:

2-6-7-7 starts with ½pt more but the other two hands have many more cuts for improvement and more cuts for good/very good hand. 5-6-7-7 is guaranteed to improve and the 2-6 is slightly better to the crib (according to Schell) so I'll throw a 2-6.
joekayak says: I agree.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 1:00 PM
At 65*-55 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
5-6-7-7___11.70+(-1.96)+3.42=13.16____37.8____72.0
5-6-6-7___11.70+(-2.15)+3.45=13.00____38.4____71.8
2-6-7-7____8.52+(-2.30)+6.24=12.46____34.3____69.9

Defense_______L4 %____L5 %
5-6-7-7_______6.7_____17.8
5-6-6-7_______7.2_____18.0
2-6-7-7_______6.0_____18.0

5-6-7-7 is 0.16pt best for expected averages and is slightly better than 5-6-6-7 and significantly better than 2-6-7-7. So I'll select 2-6 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829 says: Wonder what this looks like if playing offense?
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Sunday 10:19 PM
The analysis being done here today is just not going to happen for me in real time in the middle of a game. As far as I can tell from all this data, 5,6,6,7 is not that much worse than 5,6,7,7. I'm good with my decision.