Friday 3:06 AM

Bold strategy requires the double run. Starter card is the only cut that doesn't increase the value of this hand. We're in trouble?

   

Friday 3:08 AM

If we keep the double run here and giving up two heres my best scenario on that. Get a cut for sixteen that would be 104 and peg agressively ( they won't) maybe 108-109. They are at least 98 and it their average potential they are into the 110s already. So defense here for me keep above 110 for them and start preparing for next hand in the 96-97 range. Not a go for it hand for me here. Three lead. dec

   

Friday 3:59 AM

I've still not committed the positions to memory, but I can see here dealer gets to count first next hand so I need to hold him back best I can.

   

Friday 4:10 AM

Can’t bring myself to throw 3-3 with dealer already at 96. I’ll lead the six and peg as defensively as I can.

   

Friday 5:17 AM

Cut the only starter that doesnt help. I am probably a dead duck. Lead the 6 and play off. Maybe the dealer has a clunker.

   

Friday 6:10 AM

Improves on any cut, gets us into ok position, and about the best throw available to our opponent.

   

Friday 6:40 AM

Look at all of the torpedoes. We better go slow and play defence!

   

Friday 7:11 AM

3-3, 5-7 or 6-6 might get me further down the board, but at what cost?

3-5-6-7 isn't as valuable a hand as others available, but 6-3 (here with another 6 out of circulation) should be innocuous enough, and not gift Dealer too nice a crib.

The 3 lead would be the safest (fewer scoring replies available), but I don't want to be left with the tightly grouped bunch should Dealer play a middle card as their initial response.
I'll lead the 6 then, keeping the 3 to escape with.

   

Friday 7:41 AM

I'll grit my teeth and toss 3-3. Luck me--the Ace is the only cut in the deck that doesn't give me a point. Aargh! But not to worry, as here is how the movie plays out in my mind: the dealer is holding 3-4-10-J and tossed 6-7 into her crib! So she pegs one point, has a four-point hand, and a two-point crib. Life is good!

   

Friday 8:16 AM

I thought it was far too late in the game for defense - now I'm not so sure?

   

Friday 9:12 AM

I wouldn't call this a totally defensive position. We want to be dealing past 96 ourselves next hand, after all. I'll risk it. Tricky one today.

   

Friday 9:23 AM

If able to find a low scoring discard in a hand such as this (like 6-K, 6-Q, or 6-10) would be tempted to give up on the double run. There is no low-scoring discard choice among these six. If you list discards to opponent crib with lowest scoring at the top of the list, the 3-6 is 39/91. So hold the hand with the greatest scoring potential. Recognize that the crib is skewed mathematically because of the 3-3 in hand. If dealer has A-2, 2-2, 2-4, etc. they are likely to be an automatic toss to the crib. In addition if cutting a small card, you are more likely to cut an adjacent card (2 or 4)as there are 8 of them available. Based on my scant empirical evidence, the double run is the choice whether playing SAFE or BOLD. Knowing RAS has 8 points, I will lead a 6 and attempt to play off through the pegging series. With tightly bunched cards, that can be a real challenge. Tough assignment here. Play, pray, and stay together!

   

Friday 11:05 AM

Yes, we are 'only' on 96. Chase the points.

   

Friday 11:57 AM

Kept a hand worth 7 points and did NOT give up 2 points. lead the 3 and see where it will take us.

   

Friday 1:02 PM

This is a difficult one and there are good arguments from both holds above. I decided to go with 3-5-6-7, and toss the 3-6. We are guaranteed at least 7 after the cut with quite a few cuts getting us more than 7 holes. I feel at this position, our major objective is to wrestle away opponent’s 3 hands to our 1 advantage. I will lead the 3 and if dealer comes back with a “10” card, will dump that lone 5.

   

Friday 1:04 PM

5-6-6-7 (3-3), 3-5-6-7 (3-6), 3-3-5-7 (6-6) or 3-3-6-6 (5-7)?:

5-6-6-7: 8pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.68) = +1½pts

3-5-6-7: 5pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.87) = 0pt

3-3-5-7: 6pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 7.08) = -¾pt

3-3-6-6: 8pts - 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = +1pt

Potential:

5-6-6-7: Improves with 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 66, 777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14/15/16pts with 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 66, 777, 8888, 9999 = 26 cuts.

3-5-6-7: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 66, 777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/9/12pts with 33, 4444, 555, 66, 777, 8888 = 18 cuts.

3-3-5-7: Improves with 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 66, 777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 9/12/14pts with 33, 4444, 555, 66, 777 = 14 cuts.

3-3-6-6: Improves with 33, 66, 9999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 14/18/20pts with all cuts.

Pegging:

3-5-6-7 and 3-3-5-7 should peg better.

Position:

Dealer is in position so I think we have to slow them down and play Defense.

Summary:

Both 3-5-6-7 and 3-3-5-7 start with lower values and although 3-5-6-7 has guaranteed improvement the maximum is less with fewer cuts for a good/very good hand. 3-3-6-6 starts with ½pts less than 5-6-6-7 but holding 6-6 there will be negative delta to 5-7 of the order of 2x0.16pt. 3-3-6-6 has a higher maximum but many fewer cuts for improvement. On balance I think I'll go for the double-run and throw 3-3.

   

Friday 1:57 PM

Great puzzle. Defense by throwing 3-6 and keeping only 5 points. Offense by keeping 8 points? First decision-Admiral Farragut-Damn the torpedoes etc etc Keep 8 points. Throw 5-7? NO NO. Throw 3-3? Jus a little better, I think. Let's hope one or more of those torpedoes misses.

   

Friday 3:13 PM

At 88-96* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs____Crib___Total___W1 %____W2 %
5-6-6-7___11.78+(-3.22)+(-6.42)=2.14____0.0_____10.3
3-5-6-7*___8.22+(-3.04)+(-4.09)=1.09____0.0______6.2
3-3-5-7____9.09+(-2.41)+(-6.23)=0.45____0.0______6.3
3-3-6-6____9.48+(-2.87)+(-6.42)=0.19____0.0______6.4

Defense______L1 %____L2 %
5-6-6-7______9.4_____61.2
3-5-6-7*_____4.3_____50.4
3-3-5-7______7.8_____57.0
3-3-6-6______4.9_____56.4

* unsuited 3-6

5-6-6-7 is best for expected averages by 1.05pts and is appreciably best for Win %s but in this critical board position I'm recommending a Safe strategy and 3-5-6-7 is very much lower for Loss %s. So I'll select an unsuited 3-6 to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead the 7 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead_________Net Pegging Pts.
7_________________(-1.11)
6_________________(-1.17)
3_________________(-1.37)
5_________________(-2.30)