Saturday 3:00 AM

Looks like a straight choice between A-2-3-3 (5-7) and 3-3-5-7 (A-2):

A-2-3-3: 8pts - 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = +1pt

3-3-5-7: 6pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.07) = +1pt

Potential:

A-2-3-3: Improves with AAA, 222, 33, 4444, 6666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 12/14/15/16pts with AAA, 222, 33, 9999 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

3-3-5-7: Improves with 222, 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 43 cuts = 93.5% up to 9/12/14pts with 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 777 = 16 cuts.

Pegging:

With more low cards I think A-2-3-3 will peg better. Although playing Defense 3-3-5-7 might play better.

Position:

We are 3pts short and Dealer is 3pts short. I'll play Offense to try to reach 96.

Summary:

These two hands start with the same +1pt but holding two 3s the A-2 discard will have at least 0.3pt of negative delta. They also have 30 cuts for improvement each however A-2-3-3 has a better maximum and 28 cuts for 12-16pts compared to 16 for 9-14pts with 3-3-5-7. So in the end I think its clearly worth risking the 5-7.

   

Saturday 3:07 AM

These end games are difficult for me.

   

Saturday 3:27 AM

Yes I looked at some numbers a .02 difference for this hand compared to Q-8. Must be accounting for the posible eight cuts you could get. Perhaps if come up short and keep the pegging even their crib will also make them short also. Opted more for the 2-3-4 play then the A-2-3. My school of thought lead from the middle of the run the two. dec

   

Saturday 3:45 AM

Either Q-A or Q-8, but thought Dealer may be slightly too close to the end for Q-8 to slow them sufficiently.

Agree with dec that 2-3-4 is better than A-2-3:
2-3-4 works with all cuts bar a 7 (42/46).
A-2-3 works with all cuts bar a 5,6,7 or 8 (31/46).

After that cut, I only need a go during the pegging. 8 lead, keeping the small run intact.

   

Saturday 5:47 AM

I need to go out this hand needing 13 points. Only keeping A-2-3-Q allows me to go out with a cut of a 2. How many pegs will I get keeping anything else? Cut gives me 12 so need to peg one.

   

Saturday 6:13 AM

Now needing a GO to win I’ll lead the two and play my lowest cards in order. RAS, speak about the strategy when needing a go. Seems like James500 and I are in conflict.

   

Saturday 7:06 AM

If the dealer will get about 16 points average, I need to win this hand. So I kept the best chance for a double run.

   

Saturday 8:03 AM

I agree with wasa and ILostMyJob and Rosemarie. ILostMyJob is probably right that this will be the last hand. And wasa says it all. Only this keeep gives me the shot for 14 points with the 2 cut. And then no need to worry about pegging. Lead my 3.

   

Saturday 8:39 AM

Throw A-Q. Maximum points for pone.

   

Saturday 9:01 AM

Guess I would have held 2 3's if they had been there. Guess I am not in the club. heh heh Best to hit to, now need that one peg.

   

Saturday 10:55 AM

The King wants a chance to win if he doesn’t get a gut cut. So, keep the ability to run the 8-3-4 trap if an Ace, 8, 9, or 10-card is cut. This may be the last deal - but perhaps not. With the gut cut, yes lead the smallest card and progress up.

   

Saturday 1:32 PM

I nailed the cut and need to muster a point somehow. Lead the 8 and wait for one of the smaller cards to provide a go.

   

Saturday 1:48 PM

I went with A-2-3-Q because the max cut ( 9 cards) for 2-3-4-8 is only 12. But 6 cuts get A-2-3-Q 12. But any of the three 2's get me 14. What I would like advice on.....do I lead little or big trying to get a go if I only hit 12?

   

Saturday 1:49 PM

I think its between 2-3-4-8 (A-Q) and A-2-3-4 (8-Q). However 2-3-4-8 starts with 1pt more in hand and will have a lower discard value and with 3 small cards and a middle card I think will peg better. Even so I'll compare below:

2-3-4-8: 5pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.33) = +½pt

A-2-3-4: 4pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = -¼pt

Potential:

2-3-4-8: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/9/12pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 9999 = 20 cuts.

A-2-3-4: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 7/8/10pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts.

Pegging:

Both hands will peg well but I think 2-3-4-8 should peg better.

Summary:

2-3-4-8 has a starting value ¾pt higher than A-2-3-4 and although they both are guaranteed improvement 2-3-4-8 has a better maximum whilst A-2-3-4 has more cuts for 7-10pts. So I think its clear that 2-3-4-8 is better and I'll throw the A-Q.

   

Saturday 2:31 PM

At 108-108* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs___Crib__Total___Win %___Loss %
2-3-4-8___8.26+2.17+(-4.21)=6.22____27.1____61.3
A-2-3-4___8.09+1.96+(-4.42)=5.63____24.5____67.0
2-3-4-Q___7.96+2.04+(-4.66)=5.34____24.5____65.4

2-3-4-8 is best for expected averages by 0.59pt and is significantly best for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select A-Q to discard.

Lead______Our Pegging Pts.____Win %
2______________2.00___________91.5
8______________1.77___________87.5
3______________1.75___________90.9
4______________1.27___________84.9

   

Saturday 5:21 PM

No defense for me here. What are chances of limiting dealer to no more than 12 points on this deal? That's one in 4. The chance for me to score 12 as non-dealer is 1/3. Play the numbers. The 2-3-4-8, if missing the cut is a much better offensive pegging combination. If needed 3 or more pegs, would have led the 8. Here needing only one peg for the win, lead the 2 which encourages a 9 spot in response. Retain the bigger cards when just needing a go, ridding hand of the smaller cards as pegging unfolds.