January 11, 2019
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Total votes: 157 |
dec 6358 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Friday 3:48 AM
Cut a six - four of those compared to twenty four X-A-2-3 . Guess I am thinking of going for the skunk game here. Three lead. dec Ras2829 says: Hi dec: Think your choice is correct whether playing for the skunk or not. That's my take on it. Guest says: your answer on the 3, I would not take the six, I would play a two. dec Ras2829 says: Hi dec: What is the starter card? |
Rosemarie44 2052 votes Joined: March 2016 |
    Friday 4:20 AM
Off, off, off, as Ras would say. Play our position first and we are looking at hole 96. That would require tossing 5-7 to opponent and holding the double run for 8 points to start. |
james500 3923 votes Joined: June 2013 |
    Friday 5:51 AM
The next dealing target is hole 95/96, but I won't attempt to force the issue and reach for it here. I just need to be the first person to deal from beyond it. This can equally be achieved by holding back my opponent, (already slightly behind the pace), and maintaining my lead over them. Even if I only slow them slightly, 24/25 of the average 26 scored across the next two hands, they'll be dealing from just 91/92, finding it difficult to avoid the game going three more hands. I meanwhile should be in good position to easily reach the chequered flag within two.
A-2 with a pair of threes known to be out of circulation seems adequately innocuous. Still plenty of cuts for 12+: (33,4444,555,6666,777). 3 lead from my 3-3-5 eleven. james500 says: Oops, clearly not as many cuts for 12+ as I said. A six, whilst not unwelcome, increases my hand to just nine. |
zeke76 1396 votes Joined: August 2018 |
    Friday 6:08 AM
Strikes me that we have a decent lead and we are more likely to get ourselves in trouble by allowing for a big crib than anything else. I'd rather sacrifice a bit in average points in the hand to stymie the crib. And given we hold two 3s an A-2 toss is particularly safe.
The 3 cut helps our hand far more than the dealer's so that was a nice bit of luck. |
glmccuskey 4101 votes Joined: April 2011 |
    Friday 6:29 AM
Full speed ahead. I’ll lead a three and take whatever pegs I can get. |
wasa 3018 votes Joined: November 2014 |
    Friday 6:33 AM
A bit of a mixed lot. Really don't want to give opponent a 5. |
mfetchCT425 1399 votes Joined: February 2009 |
    Friday 7:38 AM
Unless I absolutely need a skunk, will hold one of my favorite crib hands (3-3-5-7), which is helped significantly by cuts of 3,4,5, and 7. 6 is also not a bad cut. Only one cut does not help this hand (A). I don’t mind tossing the touching cards to their crib as much in this instance since A-2 is on the end of pip sequence and we have two 3’s in hand before the cut (ie, negative delta factor I believe it’s referred to?). We have 12 after cut which already places us at hole 95. Their crib has some potential, so will try to hold down their pegging and take what I can get to move further down 4th street for next deal. Will lead the 3 of spades for slight chance at flush fake in case it makes sense to come back with my 7s. mfetchCT425 says: Sorry meant with my 5s. |
jmath714 1299 votes Joined: January 2012 |
    Friday 7:43 AM
Most have covered the why here, which I agree with. If we miss, and say cut a 5 or 6, what’s the best plan and lead? 3 is obv safest, but is there a case to lead the 2 against a sharp who likely won’t pair? |
cribbagepogo 3251 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Friday 7:53 AM
No easy answer but not going to give away points, want to preserve lead. |
Gougie00 5730 votes Joined: March 2008 |
    Friday 7:55 AM
I hedged. I wish I knew a 3 would be the starter. Lead the 3 and play off.
20 degrees and sunny here in Northern Massachusetts. Brrrrr... Rosemarie44 says: 19 degrees, sunny, and windy here in Maine. Ras2829 says: Guess we're in the banana belt, 50 miles inland from the mighty Pacific. Supposed to reach 53-55 today. Rosemarie44 says: You just had to rub it in, didn't you? Inushtuk1 says: Ah! Quit whining you New Englanders. It’s 3 degrees F on the West Island of Montreal at 2 pm EST. Feels like -13 F with the wind chill. But very sunny. ; - ) Guest says: don't feel so cold now! But you are probably use to these temperatures? Inushtuk1 says: Yes I am. I’m not *that* far north of you guys. I think it’s the proximity to the St. Lawrence River. |
Inushtuk1 1487 votes Joined: July 2016 |
    Friday 7:59 AM
I’m +23. Opponent is -3. My position calls for defense here. I’ll keep all four key connectors. 3s lead. |
JRCeagle78 1054 votes Joined: June 2016 |
    Friday 9:40 AM
Any cut but a 5 will increase this hand. I was looking for a 9 or X card, but the 3 will do quite nicely. I will be dealing from hole 100 or better. My horoscope says that I will get a pleasant surprise from an important decision. This must be it. |
joekayak 1873 votes Joined: May 2016 |
    Friday 11:11 AM
My life philosophy is when in doubt, with a close decision, choose aggressive. This is really close, but with a chance for a skunk at hand, I go with 7-5 to opponent crib. |
Ras2829 5154 votes Joined: November 2008 |
    Friday 2:16 PM
joekayak offers some good advice just above. Looks to be a push for me as to whether choosing offense or defense on this hand. With a 16 point lead and a good chance to reach 4th street CPZ (95-99), will discard the 5-7. As the A-2 value is decreased by the presence of the 3-3 in hand, so too is the 5-7. Based on my scant empirical data with 133 tosses of 5-7 and 1,262 discards of the A-2 an actual 1.909 avg. points will be saved by making the safer A-2 discard. What's given up in potential hand score is considerably more than 1.909 points. Is it possible that holding A-2-3-3 is the correct choice whether choosing offense or defense? Will defer to HalscribCLX on that point. Will lead a trey. Should I take the triple if paired by dealer? |
HalscribCLX 5317 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Saturday 2:59 AM
At 83-67* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
________________Our Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W2 %____W3 % A-2-3-3___11.91+2.07+(-6.89)=7.09____12.0____64.1 3-3-5-7____9.17+1.39+(-4.16)=6.40_____4.4____44.9 Offense_______L2 %____L3 % A-2-3-3_______0.0_____3.0 3-3-5-7_______0.0_____2.8 A-2-3-3 is better for expected averages by 0.69pt and is very much better for Win %s and only slightly worse for Loss %s. So I'll select 5-7 to discard. After the 3 cut I'll lead the 2 and play Defense: Lead__________Dealer's Pegging Pts. 2____________________(-2.03) 3____________________(-2.20) A____________________(-2.24) |