January 11, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by horus93
83-67*  ?
47%
47%
4%
0%
Total votes: 157

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

dec
4501 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Friday 3:48 AM
Cut a six - four of those compared to twenty four X-A-2-3 . Guess I am thinking of going for the skunk game here. Three lead. dec
Rosemarie44
1244 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Friday 4:20 AM
Off, off, off, as Ras would say. Play our position first and we are looking at hole 96. That would require tossing 5-7 to opponent and holding the double run for 8 points to start.
james500
2161 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Friday 5:51 AM
The next dealing target is hole 95/96, but I won't attempt to force the issue and reach for it here. I just need to be the first person to deal from beyond it. This can equally be achieved by holding back my opponent, (already slightly behind the pace), and maintaining my lead over them. Even if I only slow them slightly, 24/25 of the average 26 scored across the next two hands, they'll be dealing from just 91/92, finding it difficult to avoid the game going three more hands. I meanwhile should be in good position to easily reach the chequered flag within two.

A-2 with a pair of threes known to be out of circulation seems adequately innocuous.

Still plenty of cuts for 12+:
(33,4444,555,6666,777).

3 lead from my 3-3-5 eleven.
zeke76
267 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Friday 6:08 AM
Strikes me that we have a decent lead and we are more likely to get ourselves in trouble by allowing for a big crib than anything else. I'd rather sacrifice a bit in average points in the hand to stymie the crib. And given we hold two 3s an A-2 toss is particularly safe.

The 3 cut helps our hand far more than the dealer's so that was a nice bit of luck.
glmccuskey
3000 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Friday 6:29 AM
Full speed ahead. Iíll lead a three and take whatever pegs I can get.
wasa
1243 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Friday 6:33 AM
A bit of a mixed lot. Really don't want to give opponent a 5.
mfetchCT425
320 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Friday 7:38 AM
Unless I absolutely need a skunk, will hold one of my favorite crib hands (3-3-5-7), which is helped significantly by cuts of 3,4,5, and 7. 6 is also not a bad cut. Only one cut does not help this hand (A). I donít mind tossing the touching cards to their crib as much in this instance since A-2 is on the end of pip sequence and we have two 3ís in hand before the cut (ie, negative delta factor I believe itís referred to?). We have 12 after cut which already places us at hole 95. Their crib has some potential, so will try to hold down their pegging and take what I can get to move further down 4th street for next deal. Will lead the 3 of spades for slight chance at flush fake in case it makes sense to come back with my 7s.
jmath714
599 votes

Joined: January 2012

   
Friday 7:43 AM
Most have covered the why here, which I agree with. If we miss, and say cut a 5 or 6, whatís the best plan and lead? 3 is obv safest, but is there a case to lead the 2 against a sharp who likely wonít pair?
cribbagepogo
2830 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Friday 7:53 AM
No easy answer but not going to give away points, want to preserve lead.
Gougie00
3924 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Friday 7:55 AM
I hedged. I wish I knew a 3 would be the starter. Lead the 3 and play off.

20 degrees and sunny here in Northern Massachusetts. Brrrrr...
Inushtuk1
732 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Friday 7:59 AM
Iím +23. Opponent is -3. My position calls for defense here. Iíll keep all four key connectors. 3s lead.
JRCeagle78
661 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Friday 9:40 AM
Any cut but a 5 will increase this hand. I was looking for a 9 or X card, but the 3 will do quite nicely. I will be dealing from hole 100 or better. My horoscope says that I will get a pleasant surprise from an important decision. This must be it.
joekayak
768 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Friday 11:11 AM
My life philosophy is when in doubt, with a close decision, choose aggressive. This is really close, but with a chance for a skunk at hand, I go with 7-5 to opponent crib.
Ras2829
3398 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Friday 2:16 PM
joekayak offers some good advice just above. Looks to be a push for me as to whether choosing offense or defense on this hand. With a 16 point lead and a good chance to reach 4th street CPZ (95-99), will discard the 5-7. As the A-2 value is decreased by the presence of the 3-3 in hand, so too is the 5-7. Based on my scant empirical data with 133 tosses of 5-7 and 1,262 discards of the A-2 an actual 1.909 avg. points will be saved by making the safer A-2 discard. What's given up in potential hand score is considerably more than 1.909 points. Is it possible that holding A-2-3-3 is the correct choice whether choosing offense or defense? Will defer to HalscribCLX on that point. Will lead a trey. Should I take the triple if paired by dealer?
HalscribCLX
3632 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Saturday 2:59 AM
At 83-67* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W2 %____W3 %
A-2-3-3___11.91+2.07+(-6.89)=7.09____12.0____64.1
3-3-5-7____9.17+1.39+(-4.16)=6.40_____4.4____44.9

Offense_______L2 %____L3 %
A-2-3-3_______0.0_____3.0
3-3-5-7_______0.0_____2.8

A-2-3-3 is better for expected averages by 0.69pt and is very much better for Win %s and only slightly worse for Loss %s. So I'll select 5-7 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the 2 and play Defense:

Lead__________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
2____________________(-2.03)
3____________________(-2.20)
A____________________(-2.24)