January 9, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by james500
90-96*  ?
41%
31%
20%
4%
1%
0%
Total votes: 172

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dec
4339 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 3:44 AM
Position discard. A balking we will go.Lead an Ace. Its like a cold April rain here in New England in January. dec
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Rosemarie44
1079 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 4:54 AM
Just getting over a 24 hour flu so not up to 100% today. Chose expected averages. Saw the 9-K.
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zeke76
127 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Wednesday 5:00 AM
Half balk the crib, score some points.
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Gougie00
3762 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Wednesday 5:07 AM
I kept the 455 together just incase a 3 or 6 was cut. Lousy starter. Lead the 4 and play off. Try to ditch the 5s
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Rosemarie44
1079 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 5:26 AM
I warned you that I wasn't 100% today. So this is what I meant to post. Please disregard my previous vote.
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james500
2008 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 5:26 AM
Triple nickels for me, and a known crib spoiler for my opponent.
The 4 lead leaves me with an escape card should Dealer respond with something close.
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JRCeagle78
605 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Wednesday 7:03 AM
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wasa
1079 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Wednesday 7:25 AM
Not 100% sure why, but C. Liam Brown has tossing the 4-K a lower expected opponent crib value (at 3.8) compared to the 9-K (at 4.9). In either case, I tossed the 4-K to keep 6 points.
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Coeurdelion
3717 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 10:19 AM
It seems to be between A-4-5-5 (9-K), A-5-5-9 (4-K) and 4-5-5-K (A-9):

A-4-5-5: 4pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.03) = 0pt

A-5-5-9: 6pts - 4˝pts (Schell: 4.36) = +1˝pts

4-5-5-K: 6pts - 4˝pts (Schell: 4.55) = +1˝pts

Potential:

A-4-5-5: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 55, 6666, 999 + 15xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 8/10/14pts with all cuts.

A-5-5-9: Improves with AAA, 444, 55, 6666, 999 + 15xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 10/12/14pts with AAA, 55, 999 + 15xXs = 23 cuts.

4-5-5-K: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 55, 6666 + 15xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 10/12/14/16pts with AAA, 3333, 55, 6666 + 15xXs = 28 cuts.

Pegging:

I think A-4-5-5 will peg the best with a 3-card magic eleven.

Position:

Dealer is in position at 96pts and we're well short. I'll play Defense to try to hold Dealer back.

Summary:

A-4-5-5 has the most cuts for improvement all of which will score 8-14pts. It doesn't have the best maximum and it starts with 1˝pts less than the other two. 4-5-5-K has the next most cuts for improvement and 28 cuts for 10-16pts. So I'll throw A-9.
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HalscribCLX
3481 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 10:56 AM
At 90-96* plating a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total___W2 %____W3 %
4-5-5-K___9.57+(-3.22)+(-4.37)=1.98____28.9____40.8
A-4-5-5___8.57+(-3.02)+(-3.86)=1.69____28.6____41.7
A-5-5-9___8.74+(-3.26)+(-3.87)=1.61____19.8____38.7

Defense______L2 %____L3 %
4-5-5-K______46.2____48.4
A-4-5-5______44.0____47.4
A-5-5-9______43.4____52.4

4-5-5-K is best for expected averages by 0.29pt but A-4-5-5 is best for Win %s and Loss %s which both take account of the board position and in this critical board position I'll put most weight on these. So I'll select 9-K to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead a 5 and play Optimally:

Lead________Net Pegging Pts._______Loss %
A________________(-0.73)____________1.9
4________________(-0.73)____________1.3
5________________(-1.16)____________0.9

Although the A/4 has the lowest Net Pegging Points the 5 lead has the lowest chance of Losing this deal.
Reply
Ras2829
3246 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 12:54 PM
Seems to me the best thing I can do is minimize score of opponent on this deal. Besides that RAS likes the "triple nickel" configuration. The 7 is a lousy starter card. It's def., def., to begin. After knowing that I have a mere four points, will shift up to optimal pegging strategy. For me that means leading the four. If dealer pairs, would not take the 6 for the triple as don't believe dealer would pair at hole 96 unless holding 4-4. By leading from the pair, I still have 4-5 in sequence and might pick off a 6 or trey. If not leading the four spot, would have led the 5 for the reasons indicated by HalscribCLX above.
Reply
Andy (muesli64)
1437 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Wednesday 2:04 PM











I like 9-K. The most defensive.
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glmccuskey
2883 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Wednesday 3:21 PM
Late in.
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