Tuesday 4:10 AM

I know overall hands potential this is the throw. Two points to make. Depending on the lead card might play on might play off. After the cut I tend to think playing on to some points might be the best play here. Yes DS you know I am always wary of pegging and position. dec

Tuesday 4:22 AM

JQT often championed discarding 2-3 whenever the chance arose. If such a maxim is good enough for him, then it's certainly good enough for me.

   

Tuesday 4:41 AM

Had to find a way to get either 2-3 or 5-5 into the crib. I like this better for the pegging value. Offense to the lead.

   

Tuesday 5:17 AM

2-3 has the better average.

   

Tuesday 5:41 AM

Where's the 4 I was hoping for? Since I didnt get the cut, its obnoxious offense.

Mother Nature decided to clean up my yard by dropping 2 inches of snow. Annoyance snow. It could have been a lot worse.

   

Tuesday 6:45 AM

Thought there might be some support for the triple nickels. Don't think the opponent will get to Hole 70, so would play offense. Off to the airport in a few hours...

   

Tuesday 6:49 AM

We could end at or near hole 62 at the next deal with some decent pegging. Play offense.

Where is the 4 of clubs when you need it ???

   

Tuesday 6:54 AM

The only discard better than 2-3 is 5-5 but I think I like having a response to a 10 and then a response to their pairing my 5 OR making the count 35.

   

Tuesday 7:04 AM

The only discard better than 2-3 is 5-5 but I think I like having a response to a 10 and then a response to their pairing my 5 OR making the count 35.

   

Tuesday 7:17 AM

I'll be the first to admit tossing the 6-9. Nothing else guarantees me 9 points in hand+crib. Cut gives me a minimum of 10 points. Did check online and see the 2-3 is best for expected averages, but sometimes a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush, or guaranteed 9 is better than a guaranteed 6.

   

Tuesday 9:17 AM

Keep the open-ended double run prospect with the 2-3 to crib. It's off., off., off. for me and play on the lead. Will take all the pegs offered. Of course when holding this way, it is especially nice to turn that 4 spot. The 6 cut is helpful to the hand though one of the poorest cuts to make with the 2-3 discard, often results in 2-4 points in the box.

   

Tuesday 10:02 AM

2-3. With the flow.

   

Tuesday 4:03 PM

There are three likely keeps - 5-5-6-9 (2-3), 2-3-5-5 (6-9) and 2-3-6-9 (5-5):

5-5-6-9: 4pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 10¾pts

2-3-5-5: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 9¼pts

2-3-6-9: 2pts + 8¾pts (Schell: 8.79) = 10¾pts

Potential;

5-5-6-9: Improves with AAAA, 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 999 + 16xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 8/10/14pts with all cuts.

2-3-5-5: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 55, 7777, 8888 + 16xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 7/8/10/12/14pts with all cuts.

2-3-6-9: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 666, 7777, 999 + 16xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 6/7/8/9pts with AAAA, 333, 4444, 666, 999 = 17 cuts.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg well.

Position:

We're 2pts past positional hole and Pone is very short of where they need to be (60pts) so I'll play Offense to increase my lead.

Summary:

Both 5-5-6-9 and 2-3-6-9 start with 10¾pts but 5-5-6-9 has nearly as many cuts for improvement and all of them score 8-14pts. So I'll throw the 2-3.

   

Tuesday 4:50 PM

At 46*-46 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
5-5-6-9___7.91+3.61+6.90=18.42____26.1____55.7
2-3-5-5___8.70+3.43+4.92=17.05____22.1____50.9
2-3-6-9___4.96+3.22+8.76=16.94____22.4____51.1

Offense_______L5 %____L6 %
5-5-6-9_______10.2____18.9
2-3-5-5_______11.1____22.7
2-3-6-9_______10.8____22.4

5-5-6-9 is best for expected averages by 1.37pts and is significantly best for Win %s and Loss %s which both take account of the board position. So i'll select the 2-3 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.