January 7, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
99-96*  ?
21%
20%
17%
11%
7%
7%
4%
3%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 169

Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

james500
2076 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 3:29 AM
Thought about splitting the two pairs and discarding 2-7, but I'll try 4-7 instead.
dec
4409 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 3:51 AM
This is more about the hands for dealer and non cuts. Hopefully the eleven count in our hand will minimize any pegging for them. Two lead. dec
Rosemarie44
1151 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 4:02 AM
I believe it is a toss between 4-7 and 2-4 today. The reason for my choice is that this hand has 18 cuts for improvement over 14 cuts for discarding the 4-7.
Gougie00
3831 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 4:55 AM
Nice puzzle. I thought about tossing 2-2 and going for a 6 cut. Problem is that wouldnt put me far enough downfield. So I'll hedge with 4-7 and bide my time. Lead a 2 and be defensive. Maybe the dealer has a clunker too.
glmccuskey
2926 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Monday 5:44 AM
Defense, defense, defense as RAS would say. Iíll lead the two of clubs.
zeke76
182 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Monday 6:07 AM
Defense, but I'm not sure I picked the right hand.
Jazzselke
1177 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Monday 7:34 AM
47 maybe slightly better than 24. Everybody have a great couple weeks as I am vacationing to Spain tomorrow.
horus93
361 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Monday 8:54 AM
Obv we need defense here more than anything. Also considered 4-7 but with us holding two sevens dealer is perhaps all the more likely to chuck a "stray eight" into his crib.

Think I'd lead a seven. Save the two as an "out" and/or to prevent dealer from making too much trouble towards the upper end of the count, also this is the sort of position where dealer might just pair my lead. I'd definitely triple, double pair royals are so rare I think it'd be worth the risk.
JRCeagle78
642 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Monday 9:39 AM
I'll lead the 7, if he is playing defense he will try to stay away from the run or pair. There is not much here so I will play with a little caution.
ccoley
65 votes

Joined: December 2018

   
Monday 9:59 AM
Coeurdelion
3781 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 11:17 AM
In this position I think its paramount that we peg Defensively and throw a low scoring discard. I think only 2-7 and 4-7 fall into this category. Although unsuited 2-7 leaves a hand (2C-4-5-7) which will improve on every cut it still starts with 0pt. So I think the preferred option is unsuited 4-7.
ccoley
65 votes

Joined: December 2018

Monday 12:15 PM
ccoley
65 votes

Joined: December 2018

Monday 12:16 PM
ccoley
65 votes

Joined: December 2018

Monday 12:38 PM
joekayak
684 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Monday 1:07 PM
I almost went for the 7-2 discard. Every cur helps the hand. But the tables I use show 4-7 a little better to dealer crib. Lead the 2C.
HalscribCLX
3549 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 1:07 PM
At 99-96* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total____W1 %___W2 %
2-2-5-7C__5.04+(-2.22)+(-4.26)=(-1.44)___0.1____29.7
2C-5-7-7__5.35+(-3.00)+(-4.92)=(-2.57)___0.0____26.7
2-2-4-7___6.30+(-2.39)+(-6.90)=(-2.99)___0.0____22.3

Defense_______L1 %___L2 %
2-2-5-7C______3.9____47.7
2C-5-7-7______4.7____50.2
2-2-4-7_______6.8____62.2

2-2-5-7C is best for expected averages by 1.13pts and is best for Win %s and Loss %s which both take account of the board position. So I'll select 4-7H to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll lead a 2 and play Defense:

Lead_________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
2__________________(-1.86)
7__________________(-2.49)
5__________________(-2.88)
Ras2829
3313 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 2:01 PM
Yes it's a resounding call for def. def., def. Like the smaller pair to lead from here; so the unsuited 4-7 is the discard. Will lead the 2c, might fake the flush with the 7c next play if looks safe. With opponent at hole 96, 3-4 pegs here might put the game out of reach. Play it SAFE as possible. If dealer pairs my deuce, would not take the triple. Dealer pairing here with me at 99 would signal to me that dealer has 2-2. Four points in hand will put me at hole 103 to deal. That's great position if can limit dealer to 12-14 between pegs, hand and crib scores.
Andy (muesli64)
1475 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Monday 4:01 PM
2-4 unsuited but I am guessing. Difficult.
dgergens
277 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Monday 6:52 PM
Steaming pile of cribcrament. Just have to ride this out till next hand. I like the 7's more than the 2's. Will have to analyze Ras justification for keeping the 2's and see if can be persuaded.