January 7, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
99-96*  ?
21%
20%
17%
11%
7%
7%
4%
3%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 169
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
Monday 3:29 AM
Thought about splitting the two pairs and discarding 2-7, but I'll try 4-7 instead.
ccoley says: I through the 2-7 (defense). I thought the 2-7 was a little safer to balk the crib than 4-7? Hand is helped with any cut except an ace.
ccoley says: I threw the 2-7 I meant!
james500 says: Hiya C.Coley, thanks for taking the time to comment. For what it's worth, in this position I'm not really interested in maximising the number of cards that might help my hand, rather I want to minimise the number of cards that might help my opponent. 2-7 in the crib works immediately with cuts of: 22,6666,77,8888 (12 cuts). 4-7 in the crib works immediately with cuts of: 444,77,8888 (9 cuts). Admittedly, any of those 12 cuts for 2-7 only result in two points, whereas the cut of another 4 turns 4-7 into four points, so I'll concede that there is a little more risk there. Only a (3/46) * 100 = 6.5% chance of cutting a 4 though, so a 93.5% chance we'll avoid it.
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:51 AM
This is more about the hands for dealer and non cuts. Hopefully the eleven count in our hand will minimize any pegging for them. Two lead. dec
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Monday 4:02 AM
I believe it is a toss between 4-7 and 2-4 today. The reason for my choice is that this hand has 18 cuts for improvement over 14 cuts for discarding the 4-7.
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Monday 4:55 AM
Nice puzzle. I thought about tossing 2-2 and going for a 6 cut. Problem is that wouldnt put me far enough downfield. So I'll hedge with 4-7 and bide my time. Lead a 2 and be defensive. Maybe the dealer has a clunker too.
glmccuskey
4095 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Monday 5:44 AM
Defense, defense, defense as RAS would say. I’ll lead the two of clubs.
Ras2829 says: Hi glmccuskey: Like your thinking as usual.
zeke76
1390 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Monday 6:07 AM
Defense, but I'm not sure I picked the right hand.
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Monday 7:34 AM
47 maybe slightly better than 24. Everybody have a great couple weeks as I am vacationing to Spain tomorrow.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Monday 8:54 AM
Obv we need defense here more than anything. Also considered 4-7 but with us holding two sevens dealer is perhaps all the more likely to chuck a "stray eight" into his crib.

Think I'd lead a seven. Save the two as an "out" and/or to prevent dealer from making too much trouble towards the upper end of the count, also this is the sort of position where dealer might just pair my lead. I'd definitely triple, double pair royals are so rare I think it'd be worth the risk.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Monday 9:39 AM
I'll lead the 7, if he is playing defense he will try to stay away from the run or pair. There is not much here so I will play with a little caution.
ccoley
83 votes

Joined: December 2018
 
 
 
Monday 9:59 AM
ccoley says: I thought the most defensive throw here was 2-7, but maybe not?
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 11:17 AM
In this position I think its paramount that we peg Defensively and throw a low scoring discard. I think only 2-7 and 4-7 fall into this category. Although unsuited 2-7 leaves a hand (2C-4-5-7) which will improve on every cut it still starts with 0pt. So I think the preferred option is unsuited 4-7.
ccoley
83 votes

Joined: December 2018
 
 
 
Monday 12:15 PM
ccoley says: Sorry for the repeat - it's my first rodeo...
Ras2829 says: Hi cooley: Welcome!!Hang on and enjoy the ride. If a bull rider, sometimes you get the horn, other times you hear the horn.
ccoley
83 votes

Joined: December 2018
 
 
 
Monday 12:16 PM
ccoley says: Sorry for the repeat - it's my first rodeo...
Guest says: Tommny two times
ccoley
83 votes

Joined: December 2018
 
 
 
Monday 12:38 PM
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Monday 1:07 PM
I almost went for the 7-2 discard. Every cur helps the hand. But the tables I use show 4-7 a little better to dealer crib. Lead the 2C.
joekayak says: A close one.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Monday 1:07 PM
At 99-96* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total____W1 %___W2 %
2-2-5-7C__5.04+(-2.22)+(-4.26)=(-1.44)___0.1____29.7
2C-5-7-7__5.35+(-3.00)+(-4.92)=(-2.57)___0.0____26.7
2-2-4-7___6.30+(-2.39)+(-6.90)=(-2.99)___0.0____22.3

Defense_______L1 %___L2 %
2-2-5-7C______3.9____47.7
2C-5-7-7______4.7____50.2
2-2-4-7_______6.8____62.2

2-2-5-7C is best for expected averages by 1.13pts and is best for Win %s and Loss %s which both take account of the board position. So I'll select 4-7H to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll lead a 2 and play Defense:

Lead_________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
2__________________(-1.86)
7__________________(-2.49)
5__________________(-2.88)
Ras2829
5146 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Monday 2:01 PM
Yes it's a resounding call for def. def., def. Like the smaller pair to lead from here; so the unsuited 4-7 is the discard. Will lead the 2c, might fake the flush with the 7c next play if looks safe. With opponent at hole 96, 3-4 pegs here might put the game out of reach. Play it SAFE as possible. If dealer pairs my deuce, would not take the triple. Dealer pairing here with me at 99 would signal to me that dealer has 2-2. Four points in hand will put me at hole 103 to deal. That's great position if can limit dealer to 12-14 between pegs, hand and crib scores.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Monday 4:01 PM
2-4 unsuited but I am guessing. Difficult.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Monday 6:52 PM
Steaming pile of cribcrament. Just have to ride this out till next hand. I like the 7's more than the 2's. Will have to analyze Ras justification for keeping the 2's and see if can be persuaded.