January 7, 2019

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
99-96*  ?
21%
21%
20%
20%
17%
17%
11%
11%
7%
7%
7%
7%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 169
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4354 votes)

Monday 3:29 AM
Thought about splitting the two pairs and discarding 2-7, but I'll try 4-7 instead.
ccoley says: I through the 2-7 (defense). I thought the 2-7 was a little safer to balk the crib than 4-7? Hand is helped with any cut except an ace.
ccoley says: I threw the 2-7 I meant!
james500 says: Hiya C.Coley, thanks for taking the time to comment. For what it's worth, in this position I'm not really interested in maximising the number of cards that might help my hand, rather I want to minimise the number of cards that might help my opponent. 2-7 in the crib works immediately with cuts of: 22,6666,77,8888 (12 cuts). 4-7 in the crib works immediately with cuts of: 444,77,8888 (9 cuts). Admittedly, any of those 12 cuts for 2-7 only result in two points, whereas the cut of another 4 turns 4-7 into four points, so I'll concede that there is a little more risk there. Only a (3/46) * 100 = 6.5% chance of cutting a 4 though, so a 93.5% chance we'll avoid it.
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6866 votes)

Monday 3:51 AM
This is more about the hands for dealer and non cuts. Hopefully the eleven count in our hand will minimize any pegging for them. Two lead. dec
Rosemarie44

Joined: March 2016 (2249 votes)

Monday 4:02 AM
I believe it is a toss between 4-7 and 2-4 today. The reason for my choice is that this hand has 18 cuts for improvement over 14 cuts for discarding the 4-7.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6180 votes)

Monday 4:55 AM
Nice puzzle. I thought about tossing 2-2 and going for a 6 cut. Problem is that wouldnt put me far enough downfield. So I'll hedge with 4-7 and bide my time. Lead a 2 and be defensive. Maybe the dealer has a clunker too.
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4488 votes)

Monday 5:44 AM
Defense, defense, defense as RAS would say. I’ll lead the two of clubs.
Ras2829 says: Hi glmccuskey: Like your thinking as usual.
zeke76

Joined: August 2018 (1531 votes)

Monday 6:07 AM
Defense, but I'm not sure I picked the right hand.
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2870 votes)

Monday 7:34 AM
47 maybe slightly better than 24. Everybody have a great couple weeks as I am vacationing to Spain tomorrow.
horus93

Joined: December 2017 (1330 votes)

Monday 8:54 AM
Obv we need defense here more than anything. Also considered 4-7 but with us holding two sevens dealer is perhaps all the more likely to chuck a "stray eight" into his crib.

Think I'd lead a seven. Save the two as an "out" and/or to prevent dealer from making too much trouble towards the upper end of the count, also this is the sort of position where dealer might just pair my lead. I'd definitely triple, double pair royals are so rare I think it'd be worth the risk.
JRCeagle78

Joined: June 2016 (1054 votes)

Monday 9:39 AM
I'll lead the 7, if he is playing defense he will try to stay away from the run or pair. There is not much here so I will play with a little caution.
ccoley

Joined: December 2018 (83 votes)

Monday 9:59 AM
ccoley says: I thought the most defensive throw here was 2-7, but maybe not?
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes)

Monday 11:17 AM
In this position I think its paramount that we peg Defensively and throw a low scoring discard. I think only 2-7 and 4-7 fall into this category. Although unsuited 2-7 leaves a hand (2C-4-5-7) which will improve on every cut it still starts with 0pt. So I think the preferred option is unsuited 4-7.
ccoley

Joined: December 2018 (83 votes)

Monday 12:15 PM
ccoley says: Sorry for the repeat - it's my first rodeo...
Ras2829 says: Hi cooley: Welcome!!Hang on and enjoy the ride. If a bull rider, sometimes you get the horn, other times you hear the horn.
ccoley

Joined: December 2018 (83 votes)

Monday 12:16 PM
ccoley says: Sorry for the repeat - it's my first rodeo...
Guest says: Tommny two times
ccoley

Joined: December 2018 (83 votes)

Monday 12:38 PM
joekayak

Joined: May 2016 (1877 votes)

Monday 1:07 PM
I almost went for the 7-2 discard. Every cur helps the hand. But the tables I use show 4-7 a little better to dealer crib. Lead the 2C.
joekayak says: A close one.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5711 votes)

Monday 1:07 PM
At 99-96* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total____W1 %___W2 %
2-2-5-7C__5.04+(-2.22)+(-4.26)=(-1.44)___0.1____29.7
2C-5-7-7__5.35+(-3.00)+(-4.92)=(-2.57)___0.0____26.7
2-2-4-7___6.30+(-2.39)+(-6.90)=(-2.99)___0.0____22.3

Defense_______L1 %___L2 %
2-2-5-7C______3.9____47.7
2C-5-7-7______4.7____50.2
2-2-4-7_______6.8____62.2

2-2-5-7C is best for expected averages by 1.13pts and is best for Win %s and Loss %s which both take account of the board position. So I'll select 4-7H to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll lead a 2 and play Defense:

Lead_________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
2__________________(-1.86)
7__________________(-2.49)
5__________________(-2.88)
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5496 votes)

Monday 2:01 PM
Yes it's a resounding call for def. def., def. Like the smaller pair to lead from here; so the unsuited 4-7 is the discard. Will lead the 2c, might fake the flush with the 7c next play if looks safe. With opponent at hole 96, 3-4 pegs here might put the game out of reach. Play it SAFE as possible. If dealer pairs my deuce, would not take the triple. Dealer pairing here with me at 99 would signal to me that dealer has 2-2. Four points in hand will put me at hole 103 to deal. That's great position if can limit dealer to 12-14 between pegs, hand and crib scores.
Andy (muesli64)

Joined: August 2009 (2343 votes)

Monday 4:01 PM
2-4 unsuited but I am guessing. Difficult.
dgergens

Joined: January 2018 (940 votes)

Monday 6:52 PM
Steaming pile of cribcrament. Just have to ride this out till next hand. I like the 7's more than the 2's. Will have to analyze Ras justification for keeping the 2's and see if can be persuaded.