December 5, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
43*-44  ?
45%
37%
8%
5%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 165
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:07 AM
It was either tossing 6-8 or 2-8 to my crib.
The hand that I decided to retain is not as strong as 5-6-J-Q that has an additional 4 cuts (7777) that increase the value of the hand to a total of 25 cuts (7, 8, 9, 10 points).
The hand that I chose with the higher valued toss of 6-8 has 21 cuts for 8, 9, 10 points.
Rosemarie44 says: Eighteen cuts will help our crib: AAAA, 666, 888, 7777. and 9999.
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:12 AM
A four point hand with 6-8 to my crib, must surely have a higher combined value than a four point hand with either X-6 or 2-8 as discards?
Is 2-5-6-8 (J-Q) worth considering though?

5 lead for a 50:50 chance of 25/2.
james500 says: * oops, it's not my lead is it.
Guest says: That's in bridge
james500 says: Thanks guest, that'll explain why I haven't got thirteen cards in my hand. I've attempted to play bridge a few times, but it's proven too difficult for me to remember where all the cards are.
dgergens says: Thank you for the additional resource.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:13 AM
Can someone give me a seven perhaps in the crib? Havn't had much luck with filling that 5-6 in my hand. dec
Gougie00
5701 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:09 AM
6-8? No flush to consider. Another Meh hand. I'd like to get to hole 60 so its offense if possible.
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:01 AM
Keeping the 5-6 is the better pegger but I need some hope in the crib. Offense to the lead.
glmccuskey says: RAS, I was hoping to get your take on yesterday’s puzzle. I did not agree with Halscrib analysis of playing offense before the throw.
Ras2829 says: Hi glmccuskey: Sorry didn't post yesterday. Didn't see any offense at any point with dealer at hole 98. It was def. from step 1 and my discard accordingly would have been 10-K which scores two or less points more than 45% of the time. Guess that must mean that I agree with you as was at complete odds with HalsxcribCLX on choice of strategy.
zeke76
1366 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:08 AM
I’m with everyone on the top two choices but went the other way. This probably means I’m wrong.
dgergens says: You have one compatriot now.
wasa
2991 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:16 AM
I agree with RoseMarie44. Briefly considered the 2-8 vs the 6-8 but since pone will rarely toss me a 5, putting cards that add to 10 in my crib (A-9, 2-8, 3-7, 4-6) are not always a good move (I believe I got this from Barlow's book). Yes, tossing the 6-8 requires an A or 7 from pone to work together, but better than a 5.
Jazzselke
2568 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:59 AM
Agree with the majority, but my second choice might be JQ. Although giving up 2 points, it would be keeping good peggers, and JQ can be a good throw. Certainly a K more likely to be tossed than a 7 ( or 5 if 28 is our choice).
Gougie00 says: Different spots on the board, particularly on 4th street, the smaller cards would be more beneficial. If you feel like a 7 will be cut, tossing the JQ would be optimal as well.
horus93
1272 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Wednesday 8:48 AM
Expected averages favor this keep so strongly that I wouldn't even really think about the pegging possibilities of other discards.

I'd play offense after the cut. The starting position is -1/+10 and though our deficit will probably grow this hand I'd still tilt towards playing on.
JQT
4135 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 9:32 AM
I suppose I am mostly in agreement with the two gentlemen above, especially Jazzselke.

Toss J-Q would be the alternative to 6-8 I believe, and it's nearly my first choice today. The crazy way those positional 'par' holes work, while we sit at -1/+10, we are just one or two holes shy of being "on target" where our opponent would then pethaps be minus sixteen!

If we can therefore "step up the pace" and exceed our average by a point or two, we can turn the remainder of this game into an "even" number of deals, which suits the Dealer (us) as long as we're can remain (or rather get back...) on track.

Even if we cannot exceed or reach our average here, the rest of this game could very well consist of us "chasing it down" lest we ultimately wrap this up with an "odd" number of deals, and thus find ourselves dealing at a score of something like Hole 114 where our Three Counts cannot do us much good: therefore, we need to make use of these NOW while they still *can* be of great use!
horus93 says: Yeah, those positional numbers are total abstractions and nothing like a "score". A player with a 20 point surplus might actually be in pretty marginal territory if his opponent has a small deficit. That's pretty much the situation here, though unless we snag a big crib we'll probably fall a bit further behind. The numbers merely represent how many points a player needs, or might forego, to win the game in an average number of deals based on 26 theory.
horus93 says: It's interesting to look at how positional theory has evolved overr time. In the 18th century players would refer to "being home" if they had attained or exceeded par on the board. As the theory is described in Pasquin's treatise, they believed in playing defensively once they were "home" and offensively otherwise. This is an error though (imagine if you were at 113-110*. Would you make a defensive discard because you were "home"? Surely not, you'd discard to hit 11+ points. And at 63-60* the same logic would apply, though you are "home" at 63, etc) Colvert repeated the same mistake in his book (though I'm sure he could peg circles around most of us), saying for example that dealer should always play defense on the first deal and pone should always play on. I'm pretty sure it was mostly Barlow and Schell who really cracked the problem, at least in print.
horus93 says: 8+ not 11+ haha
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 9:34 AM
I'll go with the flow but I expect Ras has other ideas?
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Wednesday 10:58 AM
Looks like I zigged when everyone zagged. Was not thrilled with putting 8,2 in my crib, but wanted to keep the 5,6 together for the cut and magic 11.
dgergens says: So I went over to Liam to get the numbers. I was right to keep the 5,6 together, that gives maximum hand points. But the 8,2 in the crib is significantly worse, so when you add hand and crib, 2,5,J,Q is 11.2 Ave & 5,6,J,Q is 10.5 Ave.
james500 says: http://www.cribbageonline.net/analysis.aspx isn't as user-friendly, but is another discard evaluator if you ever want a second opinion to the cliambrown suggestion.
Coeurdelion
5573 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Wednesday 12:48 PM
I think its between 2-8 keeping the close 5-6 or throwing the gapper 6-8:

5-6-J-Q: 4pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.66) = 7½pts

2-5-J-Q: 4pts + 4½pts (Schell: 4.63) = 8½pts

Potential:

5-6-J-Q: Improves with 4444. 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 7/8/9/10pts with 4444, 555, 7777 + 14xXs = 25 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

2-5-J-Q: Improves with 222, 3333, 555, 8888 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/9/10pts with 3333, 555 + 14xXs = 21 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Pegging:

5-6-J-Q has a magic eleven and 2-5-J-Q a low card. I think 5-6-J-Q will peg slightly better.

Position:

We're only 1pt short of positional hole but Pone is already there I'll play Offense to improve our position.

Summary:

2-5-J-Q starts with 1pt more and although 5-6-J-Q has more cuts for improvement and more for 7-10pts I don't think it that much better to catch up the 1pt. So I'll throw 6-8.
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 1:14 PM
At 43*-44 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
2-5-J-Q___6.63+2.70+4.72=14.05____37.0____26.6
2-5-6-8___5.13+4.11+4.65=13.89____35.2____24.3
5-6-J-Q___7.02+3.09+3.60=13.71____34.8____24.2

Offense_______L6 %____L7 %
2-5-J-Q_______48.3____53.7
2-5-6-8_______49.7____56.0
5-6-J-Q_______49.8____56.2

2-5-J-Q is 0.16pt better than 2-5-6-8 and 0.34pt better than 5-6-J-Q. It is also best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s.

After the 6 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 1:21 PM
I'll play offense with this hand. If the position was at the bottom of 3rd street or the top of 4th, a defensive strategy would have been deployed and toss the J-Q. I briefly considered tossing the 8-2 but I felt that discard really would not help my crib that much.
horus93 says: So you'd play offense at 43*-44 but defense at 69*-70?
horus93 says: So you'd play offense at 43*-44 but defense at 69*-70?
JQT says: When you're running out of board (time) ... It's like being a liberal in your twenties, and being a conservative in your fifties!
JQT says: When you're running out of board (time) ... It's like being a liberal in your twenties, and being a conservative in your fifties!
horus93 says: Nah JQT, the relative positions are identical. By that logic you should play offensively at 9-12* but defensively at 112-115*! Say the score was 97*-102. Surely you'd play offensively to count out next hand? Not defensively merely because you are on fourth street. It's not enough to look at one score or what street your on, relative position is dependent on the relation of two scores. That's why talk of "zones" and "par" can be so misleading.
horus93 says: Nah JQT, the relative positions are identical. By that logic you should play offensively at 9-12* but defensively at 112-115*! Say the score was 97*-102. Surely you'd play offensively to count out next hand? Not defensively merely because you are on fourth street. It's not enough to look at one score or what street your on, relative position is dependent on the relation of two scores. That's why talk of "zones" and "par" can be so misleading.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:57 PM
Submitted this puzzle as thought there might be discussion as to which player has the positional advantage. The posting just above and the replies suggest that to be the case. With the deal in2nd street CPZ 43-47, RAS has a slight positional advantage and opponent will deal well beyond that CPZ 43-47. No need for dealer here to consider defense. It's off., off., off., and play on the lead. Nothing more to this submission. No trickery as some may have suspected. The 6-8 is the better discard since cards of 10 value (A-9, 2-8, 3-7, 4-6 are often low-scoring.
Ras2829 says: BTW there is quite a bit of space between discards 6-8 and 2-8. The 6-8 average is 4.631 (2,156) 36/91 based on my empirical data. Down that list 22 spots is 2-8 3.822 (769) 58/91. Rankins to own crib are listed in descending order.